Ulster Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ulster Mid: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Francie Molloy  (SF)
County/Area: Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,352
Turnout: 67.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF25,41352.6%
DUP13,69628.3%
SDLP4,7049.7%
UUP3,2786.8%
MIN1,2162.5%
OTH200.0%
SF Majority11,71724.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Ulster Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ulster Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ulster Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Londonderry East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Londonderry East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Londonderry EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,372Causeway1941198300021780101,450
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,185Causeway015039300656122161,337
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,869Causeway1971021,174000251331,757
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,110Causeway014537900635118151,292
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,345Causeway1911188200021580101,434
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,519Causeway13025552000627911,542
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,018Causeway83117736002613441,235
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,362Causeway97137860003064051,445
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,460Causeway168881,006000215281,505
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,174Sperrin014938900654121161,329
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,283Sperrin015740900687127171,397
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,299Ulster Mid1871158040021178101,405
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2,945Causeway020252900885164211,801
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,168Causeway90125791002803751,328
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,516Causeway172891,029000220291,539
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,314Ulster Mid1891178090021279101,416
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,009Causeway164101704001856891,231
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,514Causeway104146916003264261,540
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,484Causeway12825151200618911,519
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce1,977Causeway13570810000173221,210
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,260Causeway15581924000197261,383
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,722Causeway141275562006771011,666
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside1,993Causeway82115726002583441,219
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,698Causeway14027355800672911,653
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,983Causeway154301615007421111,824
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,741Causeway142277565006821011,677
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,333Sperrin552067870028188111,428
Derry and StrabanePark2,384Sperrin3713956400593112151,460
 Total67,037 3,1354,42019,7210010,8802,53832841,022

The full details of these calculations are given on the Londonderry East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Ulster Mid96206372009993801,711
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Fermanagh and South Tyrone29251090011300276
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Ulster Mid130166490001,046001,832
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Ulster Mid11815044700951001,666
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Fermanagh and South Tyrone50431860019400473
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Ulster Mid11915245100960001,682
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Ulster Mid149120415007913501,510
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Ulster Mid92199357009613701,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Ulster Mid107229414001,1104301,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Ulster Mid144116400007633301,456
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Ulster Mid165132458008723801,665
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Ulster Mid164132456008673801,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Ulster Mid76166638006538401,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Ulster Mid96206370009983801,708
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Ulster Mid9812537100791001,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Ulster Mid81179684007009001,734
Mid UlsterKillyman413Fermanagh and South Tyrone241711700100230281
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Fermanagh and South Tyrone139660056130157
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Ulster Mid78172657006728701,666
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Ulster Mid132106365006963101,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Ulster Mid49132236009042501,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Ulster Mid63172304001,1653201,736
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Ulster Mid141114394007493301,431
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Ulster Mid175140486009244101,766
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Ulster Mid81174314008423301,444
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Ulster Mid57155275001,0542901,570
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Ulster Mid60164290001,1133001,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Ulster Mid81176675006928901,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Ulster Mid11714944400944001,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Ulster Mid80175668006858801,696
Mid UlsterValley2,447Ulster Mid60165292001,1203001,667
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Ulster Mid93200360009683701,658
 Total68,482 3,0184,56612,5610025,4531,095046,693

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ulster Mid

The new seat of Ulster Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ulster Mid
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,299Londonderry East1871158040021178101,405
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,314Londonderry East1891178090021279101,416
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Ulster Mid96206372009993801,711
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Ulster Mid130166490001,046001,832
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Ulster Mid11815044700951001,666
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Ulster Mid11915245100960001,682
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Ulster Mid149120415007913501,510
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Ulster Mid92199357009613701,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Ulster Mid107229414001,1104301,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Ulster Mid144116400007633301,456
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Ulster Mid165132458008723801,665
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Ulster Mid164132456008673801,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Ulster Mid76166638006538401,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Ulster Mid96206370009983801,708
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Ulster Mid9812537100791001,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Ulster Mid81179684007009001,734
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Ulster Mid78172657006728701,666
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Ulster Mid132106365006963101,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Ulster Mid49132236009042501,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Ulster Mid63172304001,1653201,736
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Ulster Mid141114394007493301,431
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Ulster Mid175140486009244101,766
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Ulster Mid81174314008423301,444
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Ulster Mid57155275001,0542901,570
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Ulster Mid60164290001,1133001,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Ulster Mid81176675006928901,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Ulster Mid11714944400944001,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Ulster Mid80175668006858801,696
Mid UlsterValley2,447Ulster Mid60165292001,1203001,667
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Ulster Mid93200360009683701,658
 Total71,352 3,2784,70413,6960025,4131,2162048,327

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ulster Mid.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (14-Sep-2018 15:32)