Ulster Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ulster Mid: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Francie Molloy  (SF)
County/Area: Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 73,419
Turnout: 62.9%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SF20,57444.5%
DUP11,47324.8%
SDLP6,70814.5%
Alliance3,8058.2%
UUP2,8246.1%
OTH8021.7%
SF Majority9,10119.7%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Ulster Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ulster Mid constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015SFDUPCON
EU Leave %40%44%52%
British Identity27%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job41%47%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age45.947.248.4
ABC1 Class35%45%53%

Ulster Mid ranks #509 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ulster Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Ulster Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ulster Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Londonderry East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Londonderry East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Londonderry EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,450Causeway18120764918601060621,391
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,257Causeway5119636815804560511,280
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,964Causeway19926262340101210771,683
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,180Causeway5019332415304660511,237
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,422Causeway1681936641960990551,375
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,602Causeway17921371220301070621,476
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,084Causeway8319047315202340511,183
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,440Causeway11122763817801670641,385
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,541Causeway18320166523001060571,442
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,246Sperrin5322928517604710621,276
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,358Sperrin5523130418005060621,338
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,375Ulster Mid15223746618802400651,348
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel3,042Causeway7029739822906530791,726
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,239Causeway10818265914801210531,271
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,599Causeway17621658932501060621,474
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,390Ulster Mid13924444919202650671,356
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,075Causeway1451516051460850451,177
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,597Causeway11824266019201960671,475
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,566Causeway13822666025701100651,456
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2,042Causeway1461634912280840461,158
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,334Causeway1532114833190950631,324
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,812Causeway16320086218501270601,597
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside2,059Causeway1111646111340990501,169
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,787Causeway15621681521101220621,582
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside3,081Causeway17028678727901420831,747
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,831Causeway18123673727301120681,607
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,410Sperrin7630939321602980761,368
Derry and StrabanePark2,463Sperrin8123639518604360641,398
 Total69,246 3,5966,15815,7655,92106,13001,72939,299

The full details of these calculations are given on the Londonderry East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,580Ulster Mid7627126911808770231,634
Mid UlsterBallygawley418Fermanagh and South Tyrone17446722010904263
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,764Ulster Mid10824437713908550281,751
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,512Ulster Mid8624427112208440241,591
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield714Fermanagh and South Tyrone307114338016208452
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,537Ulster Mid10416749912706850261,608
Mid UlsterCoagh2,280Ulster Mid10319932912406650241,444
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,483Ulster Mid9225229112607870251,573
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,871Ulster Mid7829829312709970251,818
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,198Ulster Mid10915840012905720241,392
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,513Ulster Mid9925528914307800251,591
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,500Ulster Mid12817946915406260281,584
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,439Ulster Mid9423559112404770241,545
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,579Ulster Mid10725134813607650271,634
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,089Ulster Mid572142079207340181,322
Mid UlsterGlebe2,616Ulster Mid8332549912406020251,658
Mid UlsterKillyman425Fermanagh and South Tyrone20251122408404269
Mid UlsterKillymeal237Fermanagh and South Tyrone1217531704902150
Mid UlsterLissan2,511Ulster Mid10820165813204650261,590
Mid UlsterLoughry2,007Ulster Mid10512844012004560221,271
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane2,031Ulster Mid452051858107540161,286
Mid UlsterMaghera2,616Ulster Mid6720525211001,0000221,656
Mid UlsterOaklands2,158Ulster Mid9319827611606630221,368
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,666Ulster Mid10426530813808440281,687
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,178Ulster Mid9815252811704620231,380
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,367Ulster Mid572262229708770201,499
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,500Ulster Mid9716637912307930251,583
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,584Ulster Mid9730749813205780261,638
Mid UlsterTobermore2,496Ulster Mid10313760412405870251,580
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,558Ulster Mid8224555912005900241,620
Mid UlsterValley2,517Ulster Mid7419125611209380221,593
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,504Ulster Mid7930926111807960231,586
 Total70,448 2,6126,38410,9333,526020,473068844,616

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ulster Mid

The new seat of Ulster Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ulster Mid
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,375Londonderry East15223746618802400651,348
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,390Londonderry East13924444919202650671,356
Mid UlsterArdboe2,580Ulster Mid7627126911808770231,634
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,764Ulster Mid10824437713908550281,751
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,512Ulster Mid8624427112208440241,591
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,537Ulster Mid10416749912706850261,608
Mid UlsterCoagh2,280Ulster Mid10319932912406650241,444
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,483Ulster Mid9225229112607870251,573
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,871Ulster Mid7829829312709970251,818
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,198Ulster Mid10915840012905720241,392
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,513Ulster Mid9925528914307800251,591
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,500Ulster Mid12817946915406260281,584
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,439Ulster Mid9423559112404770241,545
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,579Ulster Mid10725134813607650271,634
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,089Ulster Mid572142079207340181,322
Mid UlsterGlebe2,616Ulster Mid8332549912406020251,658
Mid UlsterLissan2,511Ulster Mid10820165813204650261,590
Mid UlsterLoughry2,007Ulster Mid10512844012004560221,271
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane2,031Ulster Mid452051858107540161,286
Mid UlsterMaghera2,616Ulster Mid6720525211001,0000221,656
Mid UlsterOaklands2,158Ulster Mid9319827611606630221,368
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,666Ulster Mid10426530813808440281,687
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,178Ulster Mid9815252811704620231,380
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,367Ulster Mid572262229708770201,499
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,500Ulster Mid9716637912307930251,583
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,584Ulster Mid9730749813205780261,638
Mid UlsterTobermore2,496Ulster Mid10313760412405870251,580
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,558Ulster Mid8224555912005900241,620
Mid UlsterValley2,517Ulster Mid7419125611209380221,593
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,504Ulster Mid7930926111807960231,586
 Total73,419 2,8246,70811,4733,805020,574080246,186

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Ulster Mid. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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