Ulster Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ulster Mid: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Francie Molloy  (SF)
County/Area: Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,352
Turnout: 67.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF25,41452.6%
DUP13,64428.2%
SDLP4,7209.8%
UUP3,2406.7%
MIN1,2792.6%
OTH260.1%
SF Majority11,77024.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Ulster Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ulster Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ulster Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Londonderry East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Londonderry East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Londonderry EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,372Causeway16913379400237105141,452
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,185Causeway1513447500579118151,336
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,869Causeway2031141,01200203198261,756
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,110Causeway1412945900560114151,291
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,345Causeway16713278500235103131,435
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,519Causeway124245604005491821,542
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,018Causeway91119721002594051,235
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,362Causeway107139843003044761,446
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,460Causeway1749886800174170221,506
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,174Sperrin1513347300577118151,331
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,283Sperrin1614049600606124161,398
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,299Ulster Mid16412977000230101131,407
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2,945Causeway2018064100781160211,803
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,168Causeway98128774002784361,327
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,516Causeway17810088800178174231,541
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,314Ulster Mid16513077500231102131,416
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,009Causeway1431136730020089121,230
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,514Causeway113149897003235071,539
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,484Causeway122241596005401821,519
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce1,977Causeway1407869700140137181,210
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,260Causeway1609079700160156201,383
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,722Causeway134265653005932031,668
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside1,993Causeway90117711002564051,219
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,698Causeway133262647005871931,651
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,983Causeway147290715006502131,826
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,741Causeway135266658005972031,679
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,333Sperrin6123473300281105141,428
Derry and StrabanePark2,384Sperrin3913656700573128171,460
 Total67,037 3,1374,42419,7220010,8812,53833241,034

The full details of these calculations are given on the Londonderry East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Ulster Mid102198377009874601,710
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Fermanagh and South Tyrone23261110011610277
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Ulster Mid137156499001,035601,833
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Ulster Mid12414245400940501,665
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Fermanagh and South Tyrone39441910019920475
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Ulster Mid12614345800949501,681
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Ulster Mid128128393008174501,511
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Ulster Mid99191363009494401,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Ulster Mid114221420001,0975101,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Ulster Mid124123379007884301,457
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Ulster Mid141141433009014901,665
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Ulster Mid141140431008964901,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Ulster Mid92180634006624901,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Ulster Mid102198376009864601,708
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Ulster Mid10311837700782401,384
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Ulster Mid98194679007105301,734
Mid UlsterKillyman413Fermanagh and South Tyrone27201050012090281
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Fermanagh and South Tyrone151159006750157
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Ulster Mid94186652006825001,664
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Ulster Mid113113346007193901,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Ulster Mid51124257008793501,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Ulster Mid65160332001,1324501,734
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Ulster Mid121121373007734201,430
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Ulster Mid150149461009555201,767
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Ulster Mid86168318008323901,443
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Ulster Mid59145300001,0244001,568
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Ulster Mid62153317001,0824301,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Ulster Mid97191670007025201,712
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Ulster Mid12314145100934501,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Ulster Mid96190664006945101,695
Mid UlsterValley2,447Ulster Mid63154319001,0894301,668
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Ulster Mid100193366009574501,661
 Total68,482 3,0154,56212,5650025,4551,093046,690

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ulster Mid

The new seat of Ulster Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ulster Mid
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,299Londonderry East16412977000230101131,407
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,314Londonderry East16513077500231102131,416
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Ulster Mid102198377009874601,710
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Ulster Mid137156499001,035601,833
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Ulster Mid12414245400940501,665
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Ulster Mid12614345800949501,681
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Ulster Mid128128393008174501,511
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Ulster Mid99191363009494401,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Ulster Mid114221420001,0975101,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Ulster Mid124123379007884301,457
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Ulster Mid141141433009014901,665
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Ulster Mid141140431008964901,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Ulster Mid92180634006624901,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Ulster Mid102198376009864601,708
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Ulster Mid10311837700782401,384
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Ulster Mid98194679007105301,734
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Ulster Mid94186652006825001,664
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Ulster Mid113113346007193901,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Ulster Mid51124257008793501,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Ulster Mid65160332001,1324501,734
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Ulster Mid121121373007734201,430
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Ulster Mid150149461009555201,767
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Ulster Mid86168318008323901,443
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Ulster Mid59145300001,0244001,568
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Ulster Mid62153317001,0824301,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Ulster Mid97191670007025201,712
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Ulster Mid12314145100934501,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Ulster Mid96190664006945101,695
Mid UlsterValley2,447Ulster Mid63154319001,0894301,668
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Ulster Mid100193366009574501,661
 Total71,352 3,2404,72013,6440025,4141,2792648,323

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ulster Mid. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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