Ulster Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ulster Mid: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Francie Molloy  (SF)
County/Area: Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 71,352
Turnout: 67.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SF25,84553.5%
DUP13,31727.6%
SDLP4,84110.0%
UUP3,1796.6%
Alliance1,1252.3%
OTH210.0%
SF Majority12,52825.9%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Ulster Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ulster Mid constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party WinnerSFDUPCON
EU Leave %40%44%52%
British Identity27%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job41%47%51%
High SEC56%57%51%
Average Age45.947.248.4
ABC1 Class35%45%53%

Ulster Mid ranks #509 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ulster Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ulster Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ulster Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Londonderry East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Londonderry East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Londonderry EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,372Causeway1841477947202430131,453
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,185Causeway181234923506580111,337
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,869Causeway19220479028002760141,756
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,110Causeway161274423206640111,292
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,345Causeway16710480911902250121,436
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,519Causeway17913886710002440131,541
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,018Causeway61131592280414091,235
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,362Causeway881747803303600111,446
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,460Causeway1859581615602410131,506
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,174Sperrin14206401270674091,331
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,283Sperrin151964272907200101,397
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,299Ulster Mid1411815963404440111,407
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2,945Causeway192485573809280121,802
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,168Causeway941227963102740101,327
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,516Causeway17313773823802410131,540
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,314Ulster Mid1222035793204700101,416
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,009Causeway150687337301950111,230
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,514Causeway931788113504100111,538
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,484Causeway12117280815302520131,519
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce1,977Causeway1478361016701930101,210
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,260Causeway14718061321502170111,383
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,722Causeway160841,0378002890161,666
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside1,993Causeway103116738270227091,220
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,698Causeway14611298511502780151,651
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,983Causeway14823496513603260171,826
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,741Causeway17515890317302560131,678
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,333Sperrin323185184205070111,428
Derry and StrabanePark2,384Sperrin491835273506550111,460
 Total67,037 3,1394,42219,7242,535010,881033041,031

The full details of these calculations are given on the Londonderry East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Ulster Mid712193183401,069001,711
Mid UlsterBallygawley406Fermanagh and South Tyrone2134786013700276
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Ulster Mid1291684453901,052001,833
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Ulster Mid961873183501,029001,665
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield694Fermanagh and South Tyrone375216311020900472
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Ulster Mid12988570340861001,682
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Ulster Mid138130382370824001,511
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Ulster Mid108192342370967001,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Ulster Mid642433473601,212001,902
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Ulster Mid15283452500720001,457
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Ulster Mid112188338700958001,666
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Ulster Mid17889527710792001,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Ulster Mid106170666370637001,616
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Ulster Mid135181407400946001,709
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Ulster Mid50175243260891001,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Ulster Mid67272579370779001,734
Mid UlsterKillyman413Fermanagh and South Tyrone27101249011100281
Mid UlsterKillymeal230Fermanagh and South Tyrone159591006300156
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Ulster Mid140125733380628001,664
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Ulster Mid15255489470587001,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Ulster Mid26171216220910001,345
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Ulster Mid571492973001,201001,734
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Ulster Mid123137321350814001,430
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Ulster Mid1311993604001,037001,767
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Ulster Mid13482590330605001,444
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Ulster Mid401832592701,060001,569
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Ulster Mid11791445330971001,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Ulster Mid104246572400751001,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Ulster Mid13156679320756001,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Ulster Mid72182641360765001,696
Mid UlsterValley2,447Ulster Mid751333003001,130001,668
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Ulster Mid79263306330979001,660
 Total68,482 3,0164,56212,5661,095025,4510046,690

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ulster Mid

The new seat of Ulster Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ulster Mid
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,299Londonderry East1411815963404440111,407
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,314Londonderry East1222035793204700101,416
Mid UlsterArdboe2,508Ulster Mid712193183401,069001,711
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687Ulster Mid1291684453901,052001,833
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,442Ulster Mid961873183501,029001,665
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,466Ulster Mid12988570340861001,682
Mid UlsterCoagh2,216Ulster Mid138130382370824001,511
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,414Ulster Mid108192342370967001,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791Ulster Mid642433473601,212001,902
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,137Ulster Mid15283452500720001,457
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,443Ulster Mid112188338700958001,666
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,430Ulster Mid17889527710792001,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,371Ulster Mid106170666370637001,616
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,507Ulster Mid135181407400946001,709
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031Ulster Mid50175243260891001,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,543Ulster Mid67272579370779001,734
Mid UlsterLissan2,441Ulster Mid140125733380628001,664
Mid UlsterLoughry1,951Ulster Mid15255489470587001,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,974Ulster Mid26171216220910001,345
Mid UlsterMaghera2,543Ulster Mid571492973001,201001,734
Mid UlsterOaklands2,098Ulster Mid123137321350814001,430
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,592Ulster Mid1311993604001,037001,767
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,117Ulster Mid13482590330605001,444
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,301Ulster Mid401832592701,060001,569
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,430Ulster Mid11791445330971001,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,512Ulster Mid104246572400751001,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,426Ulster Mid13156679320756001,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,487Ulster Mid72182641360765001,696
Mid UlsterValley2,447Ulster Mid751333003001,130001,668
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,434Ulster Mid79263306330979001,660
 Total71,352 3,1794,84113,3171,125025,84502148,328

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ulster Mid. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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