Upper Bann: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Upper Bann: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: David Simpson  (DUP)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 70,574
Turnout: 64.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP19,98744.1%
SF13,71630.3%
UUP6,07013.4%
SDLP3,6638.1%
Alliance1,8954.2%
Green20.0%
OTH10.0%
DUP Majority6,27113.8%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Upper Bann : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Upper Bann constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party WinnerDUPDUPCON
EU Leave %54%44%52%
British Identity42%40%29%
Good Health47%48%48%
UK Born92%93%88%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job44%47%51%
High SEC52%57%51%
Average Age46.647.248.4
ABC1 Class41%45%53%

Upper Bann ranks #304 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Upper Bann: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Upper Bann been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Upper Bann

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall513Newry and Armagh1942504316300389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377Upper Bann1441704211900286
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,144Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,03266098509001,624
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone44468077767001,293
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,896Fermanagh and South Tyrone70479088638001,437
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,059Fermanagh and South Tyrone717720109752001,560
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,476Fermanagh and South Tyrone44536076624001,118
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,339Fermanagh and South Tyrone8798907244688001,772
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,910Fermanagh and South Tyrone63681088713001,446
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,744Fermanagh and South Tyrone46371077774001,322
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,458Fermanagh and South Tyrone34152055701001,104
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,839Fermanagh and South Tyrone87370077436001,393
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,190Fermanagh and South Tyrone66710101724850001,659
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,684Fermanagh and South Tyrone52367077672001,276
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone83096099798001,742
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,150Fermanagh and South Tyrone948330148625001,628
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,177Fermanagh and South Tyrone8506601213708001,649
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,941Fermanagh and South Tyrone44067077950001,471
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,063Fermanagh and South Tyrone62050098875001,562
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone36956056778001,214
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,191Fermanagh and South Tyrone74910409458655001,660
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,359Fermanagh and South Tyrone30446055670001,030
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,705Fermanagh and South Tyrone6207704431520001,292
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,746Fermanagh and South Tyrone79274077442001,322
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,240Fermanagh and South Tyrone71810101010858001,697
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,368Fermanagh and South Tyrone9328101210759001,794
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,965Fermanagh and South Tyrone53882088853001,489
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,128Fermanagh and South Tyrone1,030136079151,110002,370
Mid UlsterCaledon2,434Fermanagh and South Tyrone79710601111919001,844
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,606Fermanagh and South Tyrone50372077628001,217
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,136Fermanagh and South Tyrone888570119653001,618
Mid UlsterKillyman1,885Fermanagh and South Tyrone782380318569001,428
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,636Fermanagh and South Tyrone94583011413842001,997
Mid UlsterMoy2,522Fermanagh and South Tyrone886119011313779001,910
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,429Fermanagh and South Tyrone9412508410779001,839
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,681Fermanagh and South Tyrone811123029121,055002,030
 Total70,599 24,3552,586088742325,2310053,482

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Upper Bann142264010148
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,215Down Mid5101121,0832110500301,996
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,493Down Mid4151058069701030221,548
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,989Down Mid5201011,0031250790271,855
BelfastBelvoir265Belfast South1328792801503166
BelfastDunmurry908Belfast West521082627905409564
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,566Antrim South22313995815001020221,594
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,231Antrim South1921328801460150191,384
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,064Down Mid199508251730150191,281
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,065Antrim South2231241,3171890220281,903
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,177Antrim South330607951230190241,351
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,844Belfast West17528383527301710271,764
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,386Down Mid220599931680180231,481
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,077Belfast South208487462550140191,290
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,205Antrim South20815470917501020201,368
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,634Antrim South191731,00417901610281,636
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,553Antrim South195651,0532250200261,584
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,234Down Mid404856871730170211,387
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,735Antrim South1791671,1591480200251,698
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,172Antrim South396707361080170221,349
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,436Antrim South1391051,0891370180241,512
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,416Belfast West213649841710420251,499
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,219Antrim South156140948980160201,378
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,914Antrim South290911,1801570670251,810
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,275Antrim South15316173122801150221,410
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,064Antrim South370526781450160211,282
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,679Antrim South4001658062460200261,663
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,865Antrim South1381521,3231140220291,778
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,103Down Mid267487991580140191,305
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford344Antrim South26261251302003213
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,847Antrim South2471609932760640271,767
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,198Antrim South2602341,11621601330261,985
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward132Down South918379070181
 Total72,380 7,5353,38126,7654,99701,569068344,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newry and Armagh

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newry and Armagh, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newry and ArmaghTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBlackwatertown3,626Newry and Armagh2764365365901,175002,482
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCathedral3,505Newry and Armagh1284834264701,315002,399
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDemesne3,531Newry and Armagh2005024837801,153002,416
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonHamiltonsbawn3,121Newry and Armagh336126901470726002,136
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKeady3,502Newry and Armagh1524814444901,270002,396
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland538Down South504113323012100368
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall2,951Newry and Armagh269148916470640002,020
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon91Upper Bann723230180062
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMarkethill3,404Newry and Armagh387150922530818002,330
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonNavan3,165Newry and Armagh259358556520941002,166
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRichhill3,449Newry and Armagh373139994520804002,362
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonSeagahan3,423Newry and Armagh324447524580990002,343
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,531Upper Bann3931271,012530832002,417
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Mall3,449Newry and Armagh2973297841550796002,361
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey2,623Newry and Armagh33465322330943001,796
Newry, Mourne and DownBallybot3,559Newry and Armagh426454484501,256002,436
Newry, Mourne and DownBessbrook3,285Newry and Armagh1172633944301,430002,247
Newry, Mourne and DownCamlough2,589Newry and Armagh702522923201,127001,773
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossmaglen2,518Newry and Armagh392482652801,143001,723
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly2,622Newry and Armagh73486352370847001,795
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumalane3,322Newry and Armagh417214044101,067002,274
Newry, Mourne and DownFathom2,822Newry and Armagh34579342350941001,931
Newry, Mourne and DownForkhill2,555Newry and Armagh572822803001,099001,748
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge297Down South156441507900204
Newry, Mourne and DownMullaghbane2,777Newry and Armagh653013063301,196001,901
Newry, Mourne and DownNewtownhamilton2,574Newry and Armagh1041943193501,110001,762
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's2,695Newry and Armagh78603347370780001,845
Newry, Mourne and DownWhitecross2,742Newry and Armagh2041823994301,049001,877
 Total78,266 4,4239,05413,1741,253025,6660053,570

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newry and Armagh seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper BannTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,289Upper Bann923066271170962002,104
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,068Upper Bann303501,225420342001,962
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,172Down Mid3681495491020221001,389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,885Down Mid4941737561300292001,845
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,166Down Mid5691808441040327002,024
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,704Down Mid6532478331080528002,369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,054Upper Bann442971,020960298001,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,257Upper Bann1474228613901,253002,722
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,548Upper Bann693327113501,122002,269
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,710Upper Bann3882011,1652000417002,371
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,179Upper Bann151301657270896002,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,959Upper Bann449391,0161080279001,891
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,251Upper Bann543249725760487002,080
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,233Upper Bann436991,0681480316002,067
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,016Upper Bann255601,1541210338001,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,836Upper Bann265411,0681480291001,813
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,334Upper Bann753016035501,098002,132
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,741Down South305134417440212001,112
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,952Upper Bann291819881830344001,887
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,151Upper Bann363571,197610337002,015
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,375Upper Bann197611,2191020579002,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,558Upper Bann732956597101,177002,275
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,072Upper Bann743127374601,435002,604
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,206Upper Bann3691661,027330455002,050
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,452Upper Bann530451,1901230320002,208
 Total80,168 7,9014,39822,3162,319014,3260051,260

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Upper Bann

The new seat of Upper Bann is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Upper Bann
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,289Upper Bann923066271170962002,104
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,068Upper Bann303501,225420342001,962
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,054Upper Bann442971,020960298001,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,257Upper Bann1474228613901,253002,722
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,548Upper Bann693327113501,122002,269
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,710Upper Bann3882011,1652000417002,371
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,179Upper Bann151301657270896002,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney75Lagan Valley142264010148
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,959Upper Bann449391,0161080279001,891
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,251Upper Bann543249725760487002,080
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,233Upper Bann436991,0681480316002,067
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,016Upper Bann255601,1541210338001,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,836Upper Bann265411,0681480291001,813
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,334Upper Bann753016035501,098002,132
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,952Upper Bann291819881830344001,887
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon91Newry and Armagh723230180062
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,151Upper Bann363571,197610337002,015
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,375Upper Bann197611,2191020579002,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,558Upper Bann732956597101,177002,275
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,072Upper Bann743127374601,435002,604
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonTandragee3,531Newry and Armagh3931271,012530832002,417
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches377Fermanagh and South Tyrone1441704211900286
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,206Upper Bann3691661,027330455002,050
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,452Upper Bann530451,1901230320002,208
 Total70,574 6,0703,66319,9871,895213,7160145,334

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Upper Bann. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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