Uxbridge and Northolt: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Uxbridge and Northolt: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Hillingdon (London)
Electorate: 79,666
Turnout: 67.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB24,96246.4%
CON24,39545.3%
LIB1,8593.5%
UKIP1,7483.2%
Green8741.6%
LAB Majority5671.1%

See overview of other seats in London.

Uxbridge and Northolt : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Uxbridge and Northolt constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position22° Right11° Right
National Position15° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %56%40%52%
British Identity34%38%29%
Good Health49%50%48%
UK Born71%64%88%
Good Education42%48%39%
Good Job54%61%51%
High SEC52%55%51%
Average Age44.544.148.5
ABC1 Class57%62%53%

Uxbridge and Northolt ranks #237 for "Leave", #11 for "Right" and #494 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Uxbridge and Northolt: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Uxbridge and Northolt been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Uxbridge and Northolt

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Ealing North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ealing North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ealing NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EalingCleveland8,957Ealing North and Sudbury2,3043,537234571590006,291
EalingGreenford Broadway10,780Ealing North and Sudbury1,8275,44316580570007,572
EalingGreenford Green8,951Ealing North and Sudbury2,1343,818152761090006,289
EalingHobbayne8,792Ealing North and Sudbury1,7484,027188701430006,176
EalingNorth Greenford9,092Ealing North and Sudbury1,7214,299140184420006,386
EalingNortholt Mandeville9,354Uxbridge and Northolt1,8394,357132191510006,570
EalingNortholt West End9,361Uxbridge and Northolt1,4344,800104190470006,575
EalingPerivale9,477Ealing North and Sudbury1,9344,355159731340006,655
 Total74,764 14,94134,6361,27492174200052,514

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ealing North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Uxbridge and South Ruislip

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Uxbridge and South RuislipTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HillingdonBrunel9,515Uxbridge and Northolt3,0032,7782062221430006,352
HillingdonCavendish8,057Uxbridge and Northolt3,1921,7091931761090005,379
HillingdonHillingdon East8,933Uxbridge and Northolt2,9982,407303202550005,965
HillingdonManor7,854Uxbridge and Northolt3,0661,6682281721090005,243
HillingdonSouth Ruislip8,569Uxbridge and Northolt2,9272,272215215930005,722
HillingdonUxbridge North8,413Uxbridge and Northolt3,2271,9211971691030005,617
HillingdonUxbridge South9,610Uxbridge and Northolt2,7093,0502812111640006,415
HillingdonYiewsley8,987Hayes and Harlington2,5942,8772112101080006,000
 Total69,938 23,71618,6821,8341,57788400046,693

The full details of these calculations are given on the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Uxbridge and Northolt

The new seat of Uxbridge and Northolt is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Uxbridge and Northolt
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EalingNortholt Mandeville9,354Ealing North1,8394,357132191510006,570
EalingNortholt West End9,361Ealing North1,4344,800104190470006,575
HillingdonBrunel9,515Uxbridge and South Ruislip3,0032,7782062221430006,352
HillingdonCavendish8,057Uxbridge and South Ruislip3,1921,7091931761090005,379
HillingdonHillingdon East8,933Uxbridge and South Ruislip2,9982,407303202550005,965
HillingdonManor7,854Uxbridge and South Ruislip3,0661,6682281721090005,243
HillingdonSouth Ruislip8,569Uxbridge and South Ruislip2,9272,272215215930005,722
HillingdonUxbridge North8,413Uxbridge and South Ruislip3,2271,9211971691030005,617
HillingdonUxbridge South9,610Uxbridge and South Ruislip2,7093,0502812111640006,415
 Total79,666 24,39524,9621,8591,74887400053,838

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Uxbridge and Northolt. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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