Walthamstow: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Walthamstow: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Stella Creasy  (LAB)
County/Area: Waltham Forest (London)
Electorate: 78,105
Turnout: 68.8%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
LAB40,43475.3%
CON6,73612.5%
LIB3,4226.4%
Green1,9573.6%
UKIP8641.6%
OTH3040.6%
LAB Majority33,69862.7%

See overview of other seats in London.

Walthamstow : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Walthamstow constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat LondonAll GB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCON
Party Winner 2015LABLABCON
Economic Position15° Left2° Left
National Position21° Glo16° Glo
Social Position3° Lib5° Lib
TribeProgressives
EU Leave %36%40%52%
British Identity42%38%29%
Good Health47%51%48%
UK Born57%63%87%
Good Education41%48%39%
Good Job51%61%51%
High SEC45%55%51%
Average Age42.143.948.3
ABC1 Class53%62%54%

Walthamstow ranks #542 for "Leave", #528 for "Right", #554 for "National" and #452 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Walthamstow: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Walthamstow been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Walthamstow

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Leyton and Wanstead

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Leyton and Wanstead, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Leyton and WansteadTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RedbridgeSnaresbrook7,385Ilford North and Wanstead1,6382,2637748924700625,073
RedbridgeWanstead7,171Ilford North and Wanstead1,5052,3137239123400594,925
Waltham ForestCann Hall8,566Leyton and Stratford8254,17351810920900505,884
Waltham ForestCathall7,950Leyton and Stratford6434,1463728817100415,461
Waltham ForestForest7,837Walthamstow8143,6505489622500495,382
Waltham ForestGrove Green9,069Leyton and Stratford9644,18063611327500616,229
Waltham ForestLeyton8,834Leyton and Stratford7864,46846810519400476,068
Waltham ForestLeytonstone8,040Leyton and Stratford8533,6436279425000575,524
 Total64,852 8,02828,8364,6667851,8050042644,546

The full details of these calculations are given on the Leyton and Wanstead seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Walthamstow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Walthamstow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WalthamstowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Waltham ForestChapel End8,925Walthamstow9384,38141811724700396,140
Waltham ForestHigh Street8,903Walthamstow6734,7123938822500336,124
Waltham ForestHigham Hill8,343Walthamstow7134,40530610018300315,738
Waltham ForestHoe Street8,723Walthamstow6544,6443738321600306,000
Waltham ForestLea Bridge9,884Walthamstow8075,28633411222800316,798
Waltham ForestMarkhouse8,645Walthamstow5934,7153338219800265,947
Waltham ForestWilliam Morris8,377Walthamstow6514,4173648721300315,763
Waltham ForestWood Street8,468Walthamstow8934,2243539922200345,825
 Total70,268 5,92236,7842,8747681,7320025548,335

The full details of these calculations are given on the Walthamstow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Walthamstow

The new seat of Walthamstow is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Walthamstow
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Waltham ForestChapel End8,925Walthamstow9384,38141811724700396,140
Waltham ForestForest7,837Leyton and Wanstead8143,6505489622500495,382
Waltham ForestHigh Street8,903Walthamstow6734,7123938822500336,124
Waltham ForestHigham Hill8,343Walthamstow7134,40530610018300315,738
Waltham ForestHoe Street8,723Walthamstow6544,6443738321600306,000
Waltham ForestLea Bridge9,884Walthamstow8075,28633411222800316,798
Waltham ForestMarkhouse8,645Walthamstow5934,7153338219800265,947
Waltham ForestWilliam Morris8,377Walthamstow6514,4173648721300315,763
Waltham ForestWood Street8,468Walthamstow8934,2243539922200345,825
 Total78,105 6,73640,4343,4228641,9570030453,717

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Walthamstow. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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