New Seat Details

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Wantage been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	32,155	54.2%
LAB	16,117	27.2%
LIB	8,397	14.1%
Green	1,466	2.5%
UKIP	1,215	2.0%
CON Majority	16,038	27.0%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Wantage: Map

List of old seats forming part of Wantage

Old seat: Oxford West and Abingdon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Oxford West and Abingdon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Oxford West and Abingdon				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cherwell	Kidlington North	3,973	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,379	379	1,261	74	0	0	0	0	3,093
Cherwell	Kidlington South	6,112	Abingdon and Oxford North	2,216	682	1,669	110	0	0	0	0	4,677
Cherwell	Yarnton, Gosford and Water Eaton	4,047	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,462	271	884	29	0	0	0	0	2,646
Oxford	Jericho and Osney	4,040	Oxford	1,131	1,126	1,520	20	0	0	0	0	3,797
Oxford	North	2,936	Oxford	1,019	792	1,505	18	0	0	0	0	3,334
Oxford	St Margaret's	2,965	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,084	585	1,410	16	0	0	0	0	3,095
Oxford	Summertown	4,197	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,314	513	2,236	22	0	0	0	0	4,085
Oxford	Wolvercote	4,281	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,283	341	1,686	19	0	0	0	0	3,329
Vale of White Horse	Abingdon Abbey Northcourt	4,333	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,518	414	1,575	25	0	0	0	0	3,532
Vale of White Horse	Abingdon Caldecott	5,083	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,849	505	1,728	88	0	0	0	0	4,170
Vale of White Horse	Abingdon Dunmore	4,545	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,671	260	1,522	29	0	0	0	0	3,482
Vale of White Horse	Abingdon Fitzharris	4,616	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,656	380	1,548	35	0	0	0	0	3,619
Vale of White Horse	Abingdon Peachcroft	5,178	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,815	356	1,716	90	0	0	0	0	3,977
Vale of White Horse	Botley and Sunningwell	4,240	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,374	280	1,639	59	0	0	0	0	3,352
Vale of White Horse	Cumnor	4,645	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,432	220	1,584	58	0	0	0	0	3,294
Vale of White Horse	Kennington and Radley	5,081	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,828	295	1,757	38	0	0	0	0	3,918
Vale of White Horse	Marcham	86	Abingdon and Oxford North	50	3	45	1	0	0	0	0	99
Vale of White Horse	Thames	737	Wantage	337	21	194	9	0	0	0	0	561
Vale of White Horse	Wootton	2,580	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,020	149	776	13	0	0	0	0	1,958
	Total	73,675		25,438	7,572	26,255	753	0	0	0	0	60,018

The full details of these calculations are given on the Oxford West and Abingdon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wantage

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wantage, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wantage				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
South Oxfordshire	Cholsey	6,597	Wantage	2,820	1,132	520	115	208	0	0	0	4,795
South Oxfordshire	Didcot North East	6,805	Wantage	3,065	2,082	754	160	104	0	0	0	6,165
South Oxfordshire	Didcot South	7,104	Wantage	2,603	2,390	721	155	92	0	0	0	5,961
South Oxfordshire	Didcot West	4,663	Wantage	1,402	1,042	317	74	43	0	0	0	2,878
South Oxfordshire	Sandford and the Wittenhams	721	Oxfordshire East	344	145	87	6	25	0	0	0	607
South Oxfordshire	Wallingford	5,625	Wantage	2,376	1,475	495	111	213	0	0	0	4,670
Vale of White Horse	Blewbury and Harwell	4,583	Wantage	1,822	671	381	69	48	0	0	0	2,991
Vale of White Horse	Drayton	2,274	Abingdon and Oxford North	905	404	397	43	25	0	0	0	1,774
Vale of White Horse	Faringdon	5,362	Wantage	2,115	1,107	809	51	170	0	0	0	4,252
Vale of White Horse	Grove North	3,998	Wantage	1,521	782	684	78	45	0	0	0	3,110
Vale of White Horse	Hendreds	2,151	Wantage	1,034	448	169	13	23	0	0	0	1,687
Vale of White Horse	Kingston Bagpuize	2,555	Wantage	1,154	337	339	18	26	0	0	0	1,874
Vale of White Horse	Marcham	2,072	Abingdon and Oxford North	1,391	433	548	29	27	0	0	0	2,428
Vale of White Horse	Ridgeway	2,355	Wantage	1,072	347	204	17	23	0	0	0	1,663
Vale of White Horse	Stanford	2,654	Wantage	1,241	559	217	21	29	0	0	0	2,067
Vale of White Horse	Steventon and the Hanneys	2,444	Wantage	1,064	387	210	43	26	0	0	0	1,730
Vale of White Horse	Sutton Courtenay	2,086	Wantage	956	440	197	38	26	0	0	0	1,657
Vale of White Horse	Thames	1,797	Wantage	852	260	228	25	20	0	0	0	1,385
Vale of White Horse	Wantage and Grove Brook	5,138	Wantage	2,095	1,028	919	99	70	0	0	0	4,211
Vale of White Horse	Wantage Charlton	4,764	Wantage	1,931	908	641	91	156	0	0	0	3,727
Vale of White Horse	Watchfield and Shrivenham	5,087	Wantage	2,695	701	398	28	144	0	0	0	3,966
	Total	80,835		34,458	17,078	9,235	1,284	1,543	0	0	0	63,598

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wantage seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Wantage

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Wantage
South Oxfordshire	Cholsey	6,614	Wantage	2,820	1,132	520	115	208	0	0	0	4,795
South Oxfordshire	Didcot North East	8,504	Wantage	3,065	2,082	754	160	104	0	0	0	6,165
South Oxfordshire	Didcot South	8,224	Wantage	2,603	2,390	721	155	92	0	0	0	5,961
South Oxfordshire	Didcot West	3,971	Wantage	1,402	1,042	317	74	43	0	0	0	2,878
South Oxfordshire	Wallingford	6,442	Wantage	2,376	1,475	495	111	213	0	0	0	4,670
Vale of White Horse	Blewbury and Harwell	4,127	Wantage	1,822	671	381	69	48	0	0	0	2,991
Vale of White Horse	Faringdon	5,866	Wantage	2,115	1,107	809	51	170	0	0	0	4,252
Vale of White Horse	Grove North	4,290	Wantage	1,521	782	684	78	45	0	0	0	3,110
Vale of White Horse	Hendreds	2,327	Wantage	1,034	448	169	13	23	0	0	0	1,687
Vale of White Horse	Kingston Bagpuize	2,584	Wantage	1,154	337	339	18	26	0	0	0	1,874
Vale of White Horse	Ridgeway	2,295	Wantage	1,072	347	204	17	23	0	0	0	1,663
Vale of White Horse	Stanford	2,851	Wantage	1,241	559	217	21	29	0	0	0	2,067
Vale of White Horse	Steventon and the Hanneys	2,386	Wantage	1,064	387	210	43	26	0	0	0	1,730
Vale of White Horse	Sutton Courtenay	2,286	Wantage	956	440	197	38	26	0	0	0	1,657
Vale of White Horse	Thames	742	Oxford West and Abingdon	337	21	194	9	0	0	0	0	561
Vale of White Horse	Thames	1,911	Wantage	852	260	228	25	20	0	0	0	1,385
Vale of White Horse	Wantage and Grove Brook	5,809	Wantage	2,095	1,028	919	99	70	0	0	0	4,211
Vale of White Horse	Wantage Charlton	5,142	Wantage	1,931	908	641	91	156	0	0	0	3,727
Vale of White Horse	Watchfield and Shrivenham	5,470	Wantage	2,695	701	398	28	144	0	0	0	3,966
	Total	81,841		32,155	16,117	8,397	1,215	1,466	0	0	0	59,350

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Wantage. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Ed Vaizey (CON)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	81,841
Turnout:	72.5%

Wantage: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Wantage: Overview

Introduction