New Seat Details

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Warley been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	29,564	60.4%
CON	15,761	32.2%
UKIP	2,137	4.4%
LIB	859	1.8%
Green	618	1.3%
LAB Majority	13,803	28.2%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Warley: Map

List of old seats forming part of Warley

Old seat: Dudley North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dudley North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dudley North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Dudley	Castle and Priory	11,018	Dudley	2,942	3,689	50	393	41	0	0	0	7,115
Dudley	Gornal	10,502	Dudley	3,357	2,481	66	362	36	0	0	0	6,302
Dudley	Sedgley	9,797	Wolverhampton South and Coseley	3,419	1,891	78	323	39	0	0	0	5,750
Dudley	St James's	9,842	Dudley	2,766	3,226	62	356	40	0	0	0	6,450
Dudley	St Thomas's	9,781	Warley	2,509	4,049	39	347	43	0	0	0	6,987
Dudley	Upper Gornal and Woodsetton	10,114	Wolverhampton South and Coseley	3,073	2,755	73	363	41	0	0	0	6,305
	Total	61,054		18,066	18,091	368	2,144	240	0	0	0	38,909

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dudley North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Warley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Warley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Warley				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Sandwell	Abbey	7,865	Warley	1,517	3,155	169	184	93	0	0	0	5,118
Sandwell	Bristnall	8,851	Warley	1,738	3,158	98	215	77	0	0	0	5,286
Sandwell	Langley	8,958	Warley	1,754	3,379	96	219	75	0	0	0	5,523
Sandwell	Old Warley	8,965	Warley	2,018	2,679	192	196	76	0	0	0	5,161
Sandwell	Smethwick	9,014	Warley	1,268	4,338	84	205	78	0	0	0	5,973
Sandwell	Soho and Victoria	8,733	Birmingham Ladywood	1,091	5,427	66	153	84	0	0	0	6,821
Sandwell	St Pauls	8,960	Warley; West Bromwich	1,134	4,868	72	177	73	0	0	0	6,324
	Total	61,346		10,520	27,004	777	1,349	556	0	0	0	40,206

The full details of these calculations are given on the Warley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: West Bromwich West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of West Bromwich West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: West Bromwich West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Sandwell	Great Bridge	9,166	Darlaston and Tipton	2,085	2,729	44	349	65	0	0	0	5,272
Sandwell	Oldbury	9,188	Warley	2,034	2,984	66	323	62	0	0	0	5,469
Sandwell	Princes End	8,856	Darlaston and Tipton	2,031	2,659	30	377	25	0	0	0	5,122
Sandwell	Tipton Green	9,619	Darlaston and Tipton	2,070	2,698	38	319	26	0	0	0	5,151
Sandwell	Tividale	8,850	Warley	2,139	2,455	65	326	64	0	0	0	5,049
Sandwell	Wednesbury North	8,959	Darlaston and Tipton	1,996	2,586	39	305	58	0	0	0	4,984
Sandwell	Wednesbury South	9,325	Darlaston and Tipton	1,974	2,678	50	320	25	0	0	0	5,047
	Total	63,963		14,329	18,789	332	2,319	325	0	0	0	36,094

The full details of these calculations are given on the West Bromwich West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Warley

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Warley
Dudley	St Thomas's	11,143	Dudley North	2,509	4,049	39	347	43	0	0	0	6,987
Sandwell	Abbey	8,111	Warley	1,517	3,155	169	184	93	0	0	0	5,118
Sandwell	Bristnall	8,379	Warley	1,738	3,158	98	215	77	0	0	0	5,286
Sandwell	Langley	8,753	Warley	1,754	3,379	96	219	75	0	0	0	5,523
Sandwell	Old Warley	8,181	Warley	2,018	2,679	192	196	76	0	0	0	5,161
Sandwell	Oldbury	9,992	West Bromwich West	2,034	2,984	66	323	62	0	0	0	5,469
Sandwell	Smethwick	9,466	Warley	1,268	4,338	84	205	78	0	0	0	5,973
Sandwell	St Pauls	6,933	Warley	784	3,367	50	122	50	0	0	0	4,373
Sandwell	Tividale	9,227	West Bromwich West	2,139	2,455	65	326	64	0	0	0	5,049
	Total	80,185		15,761	29,564	859	2,137	618	0	0	0	48,939

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Warley. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	John Spellar (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	80,185
Turnout:	61.0%

Warley: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Warley: Overview

Introduction