Weald of Kent: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Weald of Kent: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (new seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 75,058
Turnout: 68.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,60767.1%
LAB9,97019.3%
LIB4,2308.2%
UKIP1,5673.0%
Green9421.8%
OTH2580.5%
CON Majority24,63747.8%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Weald of Kent : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Weald of Kent constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position17° Right11° Right
National Position11° Nat3° Nat
Social Position6° Con1° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %56%52%52%
British Identity27%29%29%
Good Health49%49%48%
UK Born94%88%88%
Good Education41%43%39%
Good Job57%56%51%
High SEC59%57%51%
Average Age52.649.248.5
ABC1 Class61%60%53%

Weald of Kent ranks #245 for "Leave", #23 for "Right", #128 for "National" and #107 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Weald of Kent: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Weald of Kent been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Weald of Kent

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Ashford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ashford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AshfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordAylesford Green2,183Ashford6417386134220001,496
AshfordBeaver4,481Ashford1,2581,403152159970003,069
AshfordBiddenden2,006Weald of Kent1,0232503528380001,374
AshfordBockhanger1,776Ashford7253935328180001,217
AshfordBoughton Aluph and Eastwell2,575Ashford1,12245012439280001,763
AshfordBybrook1,943Ashford7205095132200001,332
AshfordCharing1,805Ashford79024612760150001,238
AshfordDowns North1,889Ashford9072893525390001,295
AshfordDowns West1,908Ashford9452524525400001,307
AshfordGodinton4,872Ashford1,8539692431711020003,338
AshfordGreat Chart with Singleton North2,859Ashford1,18555187109270001,959
AshfordHighfield1,978Ashford8603406935520001,356
AshfordIsle of Oxney1,986Ashford9222924265400001,361
AshfordKennington1,674Ashford73223410460170001,147
AshfordLittle Burton Farm2,444Ashford96647013481230001,674
AshfordNorman2,307Ashford7976606137250001,580
AshfordNorth Willesborough3,950Ashford1,31688534564960002,706
AshfordPark Farm North2,809Ashford1,2035108899260001,926
AshfordPark Farm South2,399Ashford1,0514925034170001,644
AshfordRolvenden and Tenterden West1,816Weald of Kent9642093125150001,244
AshfordSt Michaels1,839Weald of Kent9042375327390001,260
AshfordSingleton South2,412Ashford9505088190230001,652
AshfordSouth Willesborough2,891Ashford972719102114730001,980
AshfordStanhope2,670Ashford6669557286510001,830
AshfordStour4,085Ashford1,52299412964900002,799
AshfordTenterden North1,738Weald of Kent79323811329180001,191
AshfordTenterden South1,847Weald of Kent8722704560180001,265
AshfordVictoria4,393Ashford1,2631,3311481621050003,009
AshfordWashford2,692Ashford1,0976037446250001,845
AshfordWeald Central3,714Weald of Kent1,81049979124320002,544
AshfordWeald East1,879Ashford9502383926340001,287
AshfordWeald North1,845Weald of Kent8992373856350001,265
AshfordWeald South4,003Ashford1,9265898958800002,742
AshfordWye1,731Ashford71328410068220001,187
 Total87,399 35,31717,8443,0992,2201,40200059,882

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ashford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Faversham and Kent Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Faversham and Kent Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Faversham and Kent MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneBearsted6,784Maidstone3,1267443061571060004,439
MaidstoneBoughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton2,168Weald of Kent1,0242766429260001,419
MaidstoneBoxley6,988Maidstone3,061866401173720004,573
MaidstoneDetling and Thurnham2,517Maidstone1,14225616559250001,647
MaidstoneDownswood and Otham2,323Maidstone9753419071440001,521
MaidstoneHarrietsham and Lenham4,484Weald of Kent1,912645181143530002,934
MaidstoneHeadcorn4,151Weald of Kent1,926503119521170002,717
MaidstoneLeeds2,026Weald of Kent93622210048200001,326
MaidstoneNorth Downs2,050Weald of Kent1,0112154422500001,342
MaidstonePark Wood5,100Maidstone1,6641,198280142560003,340
MaidstoneShepway North7,438Maidstone2,6071,5054091991480004,868
MaidstoneShepway South4,865Maidstone1,4291,49113971540003,184
MaidstoneSutton Valence and Langley2,345Weald of Kent1,08525611528520001,536
SwaleAbbey4,415Canterbury and Faversham1,4689841981071320002,889
SwaleBoughton and Courtenay4,644Canterbury and Faversham1,9976811341111170003,040
SwaleEast Downs2,289Canterbury and Faversham1,0692975225540001,497
SwalePriory2,136Canterbury and Faversham7524818132520001,398
SwaleSt Ann's4,461Canterbury and Faversham1,5159751911131270002,921
SwaleWatling4,825Canterbury and Faversham1,6931,0411791191250003,157
 Total76,009 30,39212,9773,2481,7011,43000049,748

The full details of these calculations are given on the Faversham and Kent Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Maidstone and The Weald

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Maidstone and The Weald, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Maidstone and The WealdTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneAllington5,181Maidstone1,965641783126340073,556
MaidstoneBarming1,781Maidstone832225112231200181,222
MaidstoneBridge4,409Maidstone1,66169954353630063,025
MaidstoneEast6,442Maidstone2,2701,0058881499400154,421
MaidstoneFant7,183Maidstone2,4211,55665017611500114,929
MaidstoneHeath4,540Maidstone1,60080159454610053,115
MaidstoneHigh Street7,320Maidstone2,3611,52683017211300225,024
MaidstoneMarden and Yalding5,900Weald of Kent2,7027244221276300114,049
MaidstoneNorth7,155Maidstone2,5581,15191216711100104,909
MaidstoneStaplehurst4,469Weald of Kent1,967537389995100243,067
Tunbridge WellsBenenden and Cranbrook5,854Weald of Kent2,647728474125380064,018
Tunbridge WellsFrittenden and Sissinghurst1,636Weald of Kent8101747938800131,122
MaidstoneCoxheath and Hunton5,507Weald of Kent2,2416486951235800143,779
MaidstoneLoose1,770Weald of Kent72919523738110041,214
MaidstoneSouth6,187Maidstone2,372821847144540074,245
 Total75,334 29,13611,4318,4551,6148860017351,695

The full details of these calculations are given on the Maidstone and The Weald seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tunbridge Wells

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tunbridge Wells, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tunbridge WellsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,805Weald of Kent1,854583154703900462,746
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater3,182Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,276686179694500402,295
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,768Tonbridge768262191181900171,275
Tunbridge WellsCulverden5,942Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,2991,13545011723300534,287
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,574Weald of Kent1,781484177623700372,578
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,603Weald of Kent2,159705256905400563,320
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East3,088Weald of Kent1,381540178653800262,228
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,823Weald of Kent1,177595152593200212,036
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's5,049Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,2067683489118800413,642
Tunbridge WellsPark5,281Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough2,1949614341017400463,810
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,403Tonbridge1,980755261905100403,177
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,631Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,1918842937414500332,620
Tunbridge WellsSt James'4,536Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,4381,032591986900453,273
Tunbridge WellsSt John's5,431Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,8421,11560310620500473,918
Tunbridge WellsSherwood5,007Tunbridge Wells and Crowborough1,8841,2162971066400453,612
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms5,496Tonbridge1,8021,6043351146600433,964
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,165Tonbridge1,414533206603600342,283
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,353Tonbridge2,208532250734500323,140
 Total75,137 30,85414,3905,3551,4631,4400070254,204

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tunbridge Wells seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Weald of Kent

The new seat of Weald of Kent is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Weald of Kent
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AshfordBiddenden2,006Ashford1,0232503528380001,374
AshfordRolvenden and Tenterden West1,816Ashford9642093125150001,244
AshfordSt Michaels1,839Ashford9042375327390001,260
AshfordTenterden North1,738Ashford79323811329180001,191
AshfordTenterden South1,847Ashford8722704560180001,265
AshfordWeald Central3,714Ashford1,81049979124320002,544
AshfordWeald North1,845Ashford8992373856350001,265
MaidstoneBoughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton2,168Faversham and Kent Mid1,0242766429260001,419
MaidstoneCoxheath and Hunton5,507Maidstone and The Weald2,2416486951235800143,779
MaidstoneHarrietsham and Lenham4,484Faversham and Kent Mid1,912645181143530002,934
MaidstoneHeadcorn4,151Faversham and Kent Mid1,926503119521170002,717
MaidstoneLeeds2,026Faversham and Kent Mid93622210048200001,326
MaidstoneLoose1,770Maidstone and The Weald72919523738110041,214
MaidstoneMarden and Yalding5,900Maidstone and The Weald2,7027244221276300114,049
MaidstoneNorth Downs2,050Faversham and Kent Mid1,0112154422500001,342
MaidstoneStaplehurst4,469Maidstone and The Weald1,967537389995100243,067
MaidstoneSutton Valence and Langley2,345Faversham and Kent Mid1,08525611528520001,536
Tunbridge WellsBenenden and Cranbrook5,854Maidstone and The Weald2,647728474125380064,018
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,805Tunbridge Wells1,854583154703900462,746
Tunbridge WellsFrittenden and Sissinghurst1,636Maidstone and The Weald8101747938800131,122
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,574Tunbridge Wells1,781484177623700372,578
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,603Tunbridge Wells2,159705256905400563,320
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East3,088Tunbridge Wells1,381540178653800262,228
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,823Tunbridge Wells1,177595152593200212,036
 Total75,058 34,6079,9704,2301,5679420025851,574

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Weald of Kent. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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