Wells: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Wells: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: James Heappey  (CON)
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
Electorate: 75,587
Turnout: 73.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,24551.2%
LIB19,81135.9%
LAB6,52411.8%
OTH2740.5%
UKIP2460.4%
Green850.2%
CON Majority8,43415.3%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Wells : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Wells constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right1° Right
National Position1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education38%40%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC51%52%51%
Average Age53.350.548.5
ABC1 Class51%54%53%

Wells ranks #311 for "Leave", #276 for "Right" and #376 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wells: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Wells been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Wells

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bridgwater and West Somerset

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bridgwater and West Somerset, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bridgwater and West SomersetTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SedgemoorBridgwater Dunwear4,034Bridgwater and West Somerset9991,104321178300002,632
SedgemoorBridgwater Eastover3,893Bridgwater and West Somerset1,0181,15227564320002,541
SedgemoorBridgwater Fairfax6,464Bridgwater and West Somerset1,7731,866436105390004,219
SedgemoorBridgwater Hamp4,532Bridgwater and West Somerset1,2291,40022771280002,955
SedgemoorBridgwater Victoria5,077Bridgwater and West Somerset1,4761,309280213360003,314
SedgemoorBridgwater Westover4,526Bridgwater and West Somerset1,1691,32534477370002,952
SedgemoorBridgwater Wyndham3,533Bridgwater and West Somerset1,34262026457230002,306
SedgemoorCannington and Wembdon3,922Bridgwater and West Somerset1,58046440258560002,560
SedgemoorEast Polden1,804Bridgwater and West Somerset82619810123280001,176
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine150Wells4029207100097
SedgemoorHuntspill and Pawlett1,867Wells72923620228230001,218
SedgemoorKing's Isle3,777Bridgwater and West Somerset1,55745135655470002,466
SedgemoorKnoll939Wells3909884355000612
SedgemoorNorth Petherton5,993Bridgwater and West Somerset2,35278061091780003,911
SedgemoorPuriton and Woolavington3,913Wells1,547551224176560002,554
SedgemoorQuantocks3,801Bridgwater and West Somerset1,69547420453550002,481
SedgemoorWest Polden1,990Bridgwater and West Somerset91322210627290001,297
West SomersetAlcombe2,340Bridgwater and West Somerset705477169131460001,528
West SomersetBrendon Hills1,034Bridgwater and West Somerset5079949147000676
West SomersetCarhampton and Withycombe967Bridgwater and West Somerset420130521415000631
West SomersetCrowcombe and Stogumber1,033Bridgwater and West Somerset487107521414000674
West SomersetDulverton and District2,140Bridgwater and West Somerset97924711130300001,397
West SomersetDunster and Timberscombe1,017Bridgwater and West Somerset429146571616000664
West SomersetGreater Exmoor943Bridgwater and West Somerset448100431412000617
West SomersetMinehead Central3,895Bridgwater and West Somerset1,342604349182660002,543
West SomersetMinehead North1,802Bridgwater and West Somerset70426210392140001,175
West SomersetMinehead South2,015Bridgwater and West Somerset71639612936380001,315
West SomersetOld Cleeve1,843Bridgwater and West Somerset82821810026300001,202
West SomersetPorlock and District1,967Bridgwater and West Somerset82923610783290001,284
West SomersetQuantock Vale1,766Bridgwater and West Somerset7892248925260001,153
West SomersetWatchet3,178Bridgwater and West Somerset1,07063426254540002,074
West SomersetWest Quantock890Bridgwater and West Somerset42290441312000581
West SomersetWilliton2,250Bridgwater and West Somerset79941716042500001,468
 Total89,295 32,10916,6666,3322,1041,06200058,273

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bridgwater and West Somerset seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wells

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wells, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WellsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAshwick, Chilcompton and Stratton3,867Somerset North East1,6352011,010000082,854
MendipChewton Mendip and Ston Easton1,712Somerset North East85560346000031,264
MendipCroscombe and Pilton1,779Wells71966526000021,313
MendipGlastonbury St Benedict's2,077Wells731292503000061,532
MendipGlastonbury St Edmund's1,775Wells508152645000041,309
MendipGlastonbury St John's1,659Wells677142402000041,225
MendipGlastonbury St Mary's1,649Wells6161234670000101,216
MendipMoor2,013Wells794110578000041,486
MendipRodney and Westbury1,697Wells61966563000051,253
MendipSt Cuthbert Out North1,939Wells842914780000201,431
MendipShepton East4,259Somerset North East1,3065791,2320000263,143
MendipShepton West3,895Somerset North East1,1536771,037000082,875
MendipStreet North3,179Wells1,147272920000062,345
MendipStreet South4,618Wells1,6323861,3450000443,407
MendipStreet West1,630Wells615113472000021,202
MendipWells Central1,561Wells528108510000051,151
MendipWells St Cuthbert's3,356Wells1,104543822000072,476
MendipWells St Thomas'3,507Wells1,1401861,256000062,588
MendipWookey and St Cuthbert Out West2,031Wells791105594000081,498
SedgemoorAxevale3,406Wells1,4662028360000102,514
SedgemoorBerrow1,759Wells704103482000081,297
SedgemoorBurnham Central5,719Wells1,9564671,7850000124,220
SedgemoorBurnham North5,017Wells2,0042721,4090000183,703
SedgemoorCheddar and Shipham5,445Wells2,1473741,487000094,017
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine5,950Wells1,6531,0491,6160000734,391
SedgemoorKnoll3,111Wells1,465140686000052,296
SedgemoorWedmore and Mark3,841Wells1,681248899000062,834
 Total82,451 30,4887,12722,906000031960,840

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wells seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Wells

The new seat of Wells is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Wells
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipCroscombe and Pilton1,779Wells71966526000021,313
MendipGlastonbury St Benedict's2,077Wells731292503000061,532
MendipGlastonbury St Edmund's1,775Wells508152645000041,309
MendipGlastonbury St John's1,659Wells677142402000041,225
MendipGlastonbury St Mary's1,649Wells6161234670000101,216
MendipMoor2,013Wells794110578000041,486
MendipRodney and Westbury1,697Wells61966563000051,253
MendipSt Cuthbert Out North1,939Wells842914780000201,431
MendipStreet North3,179Wells1,147272920000062,345
MendipStreet South4,618Wells1,6323861,3450000443,407
MendipStreet West1,630Wells615113472000021,202
MendipWells Central1,561Wells528108510000051,151
MendipWells St Cuthbert's3,356Wells1,104543822000072,476
MendipWells St Thomas'3,507Wells1,1401861,256000062,588
MendipWookey and St Cuthbert Out West2,031Wells791105594000081,498
SedgemoorAxevale3,406Wells1,4662028360000102,514
SedgemoorBerrow1,759Wells704103482000081,297
SedgemoorBurnham Central5,719Wells1,9564671,7850000124,220
SedgemoorBurnham North5,017Wells2,0042721,4090000183,703
SedgemoorCheddar and Shipham5,445Wells2,1473741,487000094,017
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine150Bridgwater and West Somerset4029207100097
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine5,950Wells1,6531,0491,6160000734,391
SedgemoorHuntspill and Pawlett1,867Bridgwater and West Somerset72923620228230001,218
SedgemoorKnoll939Bridgwater and West Somerset3909884355000612
SedgemoorKnoll3,111Wells1,465140686000052,296
SedgemoorPuriton and Woolavington3,913Bridgwater and West Somerset1,547551224176560002,554
SedgemoorWedmore and Mark3,841Wells1,681248899000062,834
 Total75,587 28,2456,52419,811246850027455,185

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Wells.


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