Weston-super-Mare: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Weston-super-Mare: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: John Penrose  (CON)
County/Area: Bristol area (South West)
Electorate: 82,161
Turnout: 68.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON Majority11,54220.5%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Weston-super-Mare : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Weston-super-Mare constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Economic Position8° Right8° Right
National Position10° Nat4° Nat
Social Position4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %59%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education36%40%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC50%52%51%
Average Age51.350.548.5
ABC1 Class49%54%53%

Weston-super-Mare ranks #176 for "Leave", #201 for "Right", #137 for "National" and #221 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Weston-super-Mare: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015


This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Weston-super-Mare been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Weston-super-Mare

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Weston-Super-Mare

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Weston-Super-Mare, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Weston-Super-MareTransfer-adjusted Results
New SeatCON
North SomersetBanwell and Winscombe5,927Weston-super-Mare2,676887315801110004,069
North SomersetBlagdon and Churchill3,002Weston-super-Mare1,4744139333490002,062
North SomersetCongresbury and Puxton3,029Weston-super-Mare1,32752511838710002,079
North SomersetHutton and Locking5,230Weston-super-Mare2,33095520074310003,590
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Bournville6,985Weston-super-Mare1,6662,55043294540004,796
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Central6,732Weston-super-Mare2,1271,678653107570004,622
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Hillside6,404Weston-super-Mare2,1291,2396852131320004,398
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Kewstoke6,369Weston-super-Mare2,5641,146435190380004,373
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Mid Worle3,264Weston-super-Mare1,078832196114220002,242
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Milton6,830Weston-super-Mare2,1621,831428218520004,691
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare North Worle6,660Weston-super-Mare2,4561,461388226420004,573
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare South Worle5,963Weston-super-Mare2,2341,38734690380004,095
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Uphill6,363Weston-super-Mare2,2651,3983342391330004,369
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Winterstoke5,604Weston-super-Mare1,9341,389324164370003,848
North SomersetWick St Lawrence and St Georges3,799Weston-super-Mare1,56074922851200002,608
 Total82,161 29,98218,4405,1751,93188700056,415

The full details of these calculations are given on the Weston-Super-Mare seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Weston-super-Mare

The new seat of Weston-super-Mare is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Weston-super-Mare
Old Seat CON
North SomersetBanwell and Winscombe5,927Weston-Super-Mare2,676887315801110004,069
North SomersetBlagdon and Churchill3,002Weston-Super-Mare1,4744139333490002,062
North SomersetCongresbury and Puxton3,029Weston-Super-Mare1,32752511838710002,079
North SomersetHutton and Locking5,230Weston-Super-Mare2,33095520074310003,590
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Bournville6,985Weston-Super-Mare1,6662,55043294540004,796
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Central6,732Weston-Super-Mare2,1271,678653107570004,622
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Hillside6,404Weston-Super-Mare2,1291,2396852131320004,398
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Kewstoke6,369Weston-Super-Mare2,5641,146435190380004,373
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Mid Worle3,264Weston-Super-Mare1,078832196114220002,242
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Milton6,830Weston-Super-Mare2,1621,831428218520004,691
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare North Worle6,660Weston-Super-Mare2,4561,461388226420004,573
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare South Worle5,963Weston-Super-Mare2,2341,38734690380004,095
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Uphill6,363Weston-Super-Mare2,2651,3983342391330004,369
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Winterstoke5,604Weston-Super-Mare1,9341,389324164370003,848
North SomersetWick St Lawrence and St Georges3,799Weston-Super-Mare1,56074922851200002,608
 Total82,161 29,98218,4405,1751,93188700056,415

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Weston-super-Mare. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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