New Seat Details - Worcester

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Worcester been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	26,032	49.0%
LAB	22,493	42.4%
LIB	1,822	3.4%
UKIP	1,382	2.6%
Green	1,233	2.3%
OTH	146	0.3%
CON Majority	3,539	6.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Worcester: Map

List of old seats forming part of Worcester

Old seat: Worcester

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Worcester, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Worcester				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Worcester	Arboretum	4,141	Worcester	1,289	1,539	104	80	88	0	0	5	3,105
Worcester	Battenhall	3,914	Worcester	1,567	960	92	70	74	0	0	7	2,770
Worcester	Bedwardine	6,304	Worcester	2,229	1,440	233	109	88	0	0	13	4,112
Worcester	Cathedral	6,826	Worcester	2,291	2,446	149	128	142	0	0	25	5,181
Worcester	Claines	6,397	Worcester	2,364	1,330	337	112	101	0	0	3	4,247
Worcester	Gorse Hill	3,407	Worcester	937	1,553	52	77	50	0	0	7	2,676
Worcester	Nunnery	5,590	Worcester	1,733	2,151	123	116	96	0	0	10	4,229
Worcester	Rainbow Hill	3,844	Worcester	1,116	1,794	81	89	78	0	0	9	3,167
Worcester	St Clement	3,938	Worcester	1,625	1,160	99	81	78	0	0	13	3,056
Worcester	St John	5,738	Worcester	1,774	2,232	126	114	108	0	0	30	4,384
Worcester	St Peter's Parish	4,374	Worcester	1,876	976	84	75	66	0	0	2	3,079
Worcester	St Stephen	4,057	Worcester	1,388	964	81	75	67	0	0	8	2,583
Worcester	Warndon	3,683	Worcester	1,070	1,731	60	90	54	0	0	11	3,016
Worcester	Warndon Parish North	3,965	Worcester	1,739	932	65	68	59	0	0	2	2,865
Worcester	Warndon Parish South	4,364	Worcester	1,734	1,013	71	70	61	0	0	1	2,950
	Total	70,542		24,732	22,221	1,757	1,354	1,210	0	0	146	51,420

The full details of these calculations are given on the Worcester seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Worcestershire Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Worcestershire Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Worcestershire Mid				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Wychavon	Badsey	2,233	Evesham	1,078	345	57	90	24	0	0	0	1,594
Wychavon	Bengeworth	4,394	Evesham	1,941	801	131	152	113	0	0	0	3,138
Wychavon	Bowbrook	2,339	Evesham	1,101	287	166	25	24	0	0	0	1,603
Wychavon	Bretforton and Offenham	2,203	Evesham	943	324	160	27	21	0	0	0	1,475
Wychavon	Broadway and Wickhamford	3,818	Evesham	1,989	461	97	50	87	0	0	0	2,684
Wychavon	Dodderhill	2,129	Bromsgrove and Droitwich	1,021	280	126	25	21	0	0	0	1,473
Wychavon	Drakes Broughton	1,920	Evesham	1,084	219	47	25	19	0	0	0	1,394
Wychavon	Droitwich Central	1,930	Bromsgrove and Droitwich	718	584	120	75	27	0	0	0	1,524
Wychavon	Droitwich East	4,257	Bromsgrove and Droitwich	1,892	851	235	145	51	0	0	0	3,174
Wychavon	Droitwich South East	4,185	Bromsgrove and Droitwich	2,001	591	236	127	79	0	0	0	3,034
Wychavon	Droitwich South West	3,862	Bromsgrove and Droitwich	1,552	789	256	126	94	0	0	0	2,817
Wychavon	Droitwich West	3,747	Bromsgrove and Droitwich	1,571	1,297	120	63	98	0	0	0	3,149
Wychavon	Evesham North	3,324	Evesham	1,559	880	255	143	108	0	0	0	2,945
Wychavon	Evesham South	3,732	Evesham	2,107	686	144	66	102	0	0	0	3,105
Wychavon	Fladbury	2,214	Evesham	1,090	294	125	26	51	0	0	0	1,586
Wychavon	Great Hampton	2,052	Evesham	853	376	59	80	57	0	0	0	1,425
Wychavon	Hartlebury	2,152	Bromsgrove and Droitwich	1,112	288	110	29	21	0	0	0	1,560
Wychavon	Harvington and Norton	2,048	Evesham	1,115	276	55	25	50	0	0	0	1,521
Wychavon	Honeybourne and Pebworth	2,007	Evesham	1,116	259	44	26	21	0	0	0	1,466
Wychavon	Little Hampton	3,601	Evesham	1,931	744	117	144	100	0	0	0	3,036
Wychavon	Lovett and North Claines	4,230	Bromsgrove and Droitwich	2,321	529	250	52	48	0	0	0	3,200
Wychavon	Norton and Whittington	2,370	Worcester	1,300	272	65	28	23	0	0	0	1,688
Wychavon	Ombersley	1,946	Bromsgrove and Droitwich	993	234	102	22	20	0	0	0	1,371
Wychavon	Pinvin	2,309	Evesham	1,119	364	194	33	26	0	0	0	1,736
Wychavon	The Littletons	2,221	Evesham	1,308	376	76	35	67	0	0	0	1,862
Wychavon	Upton Snodsbury	2,197	Evesham	1,152	233	104	22	19	0	0	0	1,530
	Total	73,420		35,967	12,640	3,451	1,661	1,371	0	0	0	55,090

The full details of these calculations are given on the Worcestershire Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Worcester

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Worcester
Worcester	Arboretum	4,396	Worcester	1,289	1,539	104	80	88	0	0	5	3,105
Worcester	Battenhall	3,924	Worcester	1,567	960	92	70	74	0	0	7	2,770
Worcester	Bedwardine	5,823	Worcester	2,229	1,440	233	109	88	0	0	13	4,112
Worcester	Cathedral	7,336	Worcester	2,291	2,446	149	128	142	0	0	25	5,181
Worcester	Claines	6,013	Worcester	2,364	1,330	337	112	101	0	0	3	4,247
Worcester	Gorse Hill	3,790	Worcester	937	1,553	52	77	50	0	0	7	2,676
Worcester	Nunnery	5,989	Worcester	1,733	2,151	123	116	96	0	0	10	4,229
Worcester	Rainbow Hill	4,486	Worcester	1,116	1,794	81	89	78	0	0	9	3,167
Worcester	St Clement	4,328	Worcester	1,625	1,160	99	81	78	0	0	13	3,056
Worcester	St John	6,207	Worcester	1,774	2,232	126	114	108	0	0	30	4,384
Worcester	St Peter's Parish	4,360	Worcester	1,876	976	84	75	66	0	0	2	3,079
Worcester	St Stephen	3,658	Worcester	1,388	964	81	75	67	0	0	8	2,583
Worcester	Warndon	4,271	Worcester	1,070	1,731	60	90	54	0	0	11	3,016
Worcester	Warndon Parish North	4,057	Worcester	1,739	932	65	68	59	0	0	2	2,865
Worcester	Warndon Parish South	4,178	Worcester	1,734	1,013	71	70	61	0	0	1	2,950
Wychavon	Norton and Whittington	2,331	Worcestershire Mid	1,300	272	65	28	23	0	0	0	1,688
	Total	75,147		26,032	22,493	1,822	1,382	1,233	0	0	146	53,108

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Worcester. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Robin Walker (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,147
Turnout:	70.7%

Worcester: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Worcester: Overview

Introduction