Wycombe: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Wycombe: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Steve Baker  (CON)
County/Area:Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:83,603
Turnout:69.5%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,05051.7%
LAB21,11236.3%
LIB4,3517.5%
UKIP1,2902.2%
Green1,2752.2%
OTH540.1%
CON Majority8,93815.4%

See overview of other seats in South East.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Wycombe been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Wycombe: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Wycombe

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aylesbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aylesbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AylesburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Aylesbury ValeAston Clinton and Stoke Mandeville7,422Aylesbury3,4851,22826911911400425,257
Aylesbury ValeBedgrove4,886Aylesbury2,057864241858000923,419
Aylesbury ValeCentral and Walton4,233Aylesbury1,6321,203416828900333,455
Aylesbury ValeColdharbour6,070Aylesbury2,4091,67270712711900495,083
Aylesbury ValeElmhurst4,285Aylesbury1,5011,566439798600413,712
Aylesbury ValeGatehouse4,798Aylesbury1,6251,4155321009100383,801
Aylesbury ValeMandeville and Elm Farm6,329Aylesbury2,6081,47938112111500444,748
Aylesbury ValeOakfield and Bierton3,905Aylesbury1,590976460846700313,208
Aylesbury ValeRiverside4,966Aylesbury1,226927281682800232,553
Aylesbury ValeSouthcourt4,070Aylesbury1,3911,521431747600363,529
Aylesbury ValeWalton Court and Hawkslade4,179Aylesbury1,5381,244521924400323,471
Aylesbury ValeWatermead1,656Aylesbury748332141281500121,276
Aylesbury ValeWendover and Halton6,288Aylesbury2,8551,11528610210900384,505
WycombeBledlow and Bradenham2,149Wycombe1,23726659142900271,632
WycombeGreater Hughenden6,486Chesham and Amersham3,192894291468300484,554
WycombeLacey Green, Speen and the Hampdens2,043Chesham and Amersham1,1722566211270091,537
WycombeStokenchurch and Radnage4,137Wycombe2,048659143646300273,004
 Total77,902 32,31417,6175,6601,2961,2350062258,744

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aylesbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wycombe

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wycombe, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WycombeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WycombeAbbey6,227Wycombe2,5332,056336631110005,099
WycombeBooker and Cressex3,474Wycombe1,165986180108430002,482
WycombeBowerdean3,477Wycombe1,0081,37630133630002,781
WycombeChiltern Rise3,995Wycombe1,68377416143630002,724
WycombeDisraeli3,839Wycombe1,2271,37813897710002,911
WycombeDownley and Plomer Hill3,654Wycombe1,53979718840590002,623
WycombeGreater Marlow3,770Wycombe1,8885579029530002,617
WycombeHambleden Valley1,891Wycombe9682693915270001,318
WycombeHazlemere North3,712Wycombe1,56760413688440002,439
WycombeHazlemere South3,439Wycombe1,32766222081400002,330
WycombeMicklefield3,493Wycombe1,0821,29636149580002,846
WycombeOakridge and Castlefield5,213Wycombe1,7632,584232481010004,728
WycombeRyemead4,719Wycombe1,6121,30043055970003,494
WycombeSands4,119Wycombe1,2591,208324114780002,983
WycombeTerriers and Amersham Hill6,081Wycombe2,1521,7154021451260004,540
WycombeTotteridge4,290Wycombe1,4171,41028752690003,235
WycombeTylers Green and Loudwater6,319Wycombe2,5751,215324152800004,346
 Total71,712 26,76520,1874,1491,2121,18300053,496

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wycombe seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Wycombe

The new seat of Wycombe is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Wycombe
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WycombeAbbey7,348Wycombe2,5332,056336631110005,099
WycombeBledlow and Bradenham2,295Aylesbury1,23726659142900271,632
WycombeBooker and Cressex3,575Wycombe1,165986180108430002,482
WycombeBowerdean4,007Wycombe1,0081,37630133630002,781
WycombeChiltern Rise3,926Wycombe1,68377416143630002,724
WycombeDisraeli4,195Wycombe1,2271,37813897710002,911
WycombeDownley and Plomer Hill3,780Wycombe1,53979718840590002,623
WycombeGreater Marlow3,771Wycombe1,8885579029530002,617
WycombeHambleden Valley1,900Wycombe9682693915270001,318
WycombeHazlemere North3,515Wycombe1,56760413688440002,439
WycombeHazlemere South3,357Wycombe1,32766222081400002,330
WycombeMicklefield4,101Wycombe1,0821,29636149580002,846
WycombeOakridge and Castlefield6,814Wycombe1,7632,584232481010004,728
WycombeRyemead5,034Wycombe1,6121,30043055970003,494
WycombeSands4,299Wycombe1,2591,208324114780002,983
WycombeStokenchurch and Radnage4,220Aylesbury2,048659143646300273,004
WycombeTerriers and Amersham Hill6,543Wycombe2,1521,7154021451260004,540
WycombeTotteridge4,661Wycombe1,4171,41028752690003,235
WycombeTylers Green and Loudwater6,262Wycombe2,5751,215324152800004,346
 Total83,603 30,05021,1124,3511,2901,275005458,132

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Wycombe. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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