Aberavon: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Aberavon: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Stephen Kinnock  (LAB)
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 49,891
Turnout: 66.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB22,66268.1%42.8%
CON5,90117.7%22.6%
Plaid2,7618.3%9.4%
UKIP1,3454.0%0.0%
LIB5991.8%6.3%
Brexit00.0%17.4%
Green00.0%1.5%
OTH00.0%0.1%
LAB Majority16,76150.4%Pred Maj 20.1%
Chance of
winning
LAB
78%
CON
16%
Plaid
1%
UKIP
0%
LIB
1%
Brexit
4%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Aberavon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Aberavon constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat WalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position19° Left9° Left
National Position4° Nat
Social Position1° Lib2° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %59%53%52%
British Identity21%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education27%36%39%
Good Job41%46%51%
High SEC36%46%51%
Average Age49.849.648.5
ABC1 Class37%47%54%

Aberavon ranks #181 for "Leave", #590 for "Right", #293 for "National" and #450 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Aberavon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Aberavon: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Aberavon

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Aberavon at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Aberavon. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

AberavonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
OTH
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberavon201202,1040001851,808
Neath Port TalbotBaglan20121863,13400002,604
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry East20120-100000
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry West20120-100000
Neath Port TalbotBryn and Cwmavon201203,47600001,489
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc Central20120998000215503
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc North201204512680000
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc West201204063170000
Neath Port TalbotCymmer20120-100000
Neath Port TalbotGlyncorrwg201202710000201
Neath Port TalbotGwynfi201205020000153
Neath Port TalbotMargam201211040261000295
Neath Port TalbotPort Talbot20121072,32000001,599
Neath Port TalbotSandfields East201202,67000002,407
Neath Port TalbotSandfields West201203,33900001,574
Neath Port TalbotTai-bach201202,0800000494

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

AberavonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberavon4,1144281,891451170261002,742
Neath Port TalbotBaglan5,1507902,156421480298003,434
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry East2,1862271,03528560111001,457
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry West2,2652211,1231756094001,511
Neath Port TalbotBryn and Cwmavon4,9305872,267461300257003,287
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc Central3,0533601,28425820284002,035
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc North1,82024476655480102001,215
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc West1,95830077663510116001,306
Neath Port TalbotCymmer2,1311821,0871453085001,421
Neath Port TalbotGlyncorrwg82776404122303700552
Neath Port TalbotGwynfi1,02785515132704400684
Neath Port TalbotMargam2,28441684167610137001,522
Neath Port TalbotPort Talbot4,2575061,899511180265002,839
Neath Port TalbotSandfields East5,2586182,429411470272003,507
Neath Port TalbotSandfields West5,0184822,471431340216003,346
Neath Port TalbotTai-bach3,6113801,71735940182002,408
 Total49,8895,90222,6615971,34502,7610033,266

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Aberavon

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Aberavon.

AberavonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
UKIP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Neath Port TalbotAberavon4,1145481,135147469382470022,586
Neath Port TalbotBaglan5,1508661,247232533493100023,239
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry East2,18629560882247191230001,374
Neath Port TalbotBriton Ferry West2,26528466680248221260001,426
Neath Port TalbotBryn and Cwmavon4,9307151,317204527462890023,100
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc Central3,053437776113336282290021,921
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc North1,82028145683201181060001,145
Neath Port TalbotCoedffranc West1,95832047299202211170001,231
Neath Port TalbotCymmer2,13124864473233201210001,339
Neath Port TalbotGlyncorrwg82710323728100746000521
Neath Port TalbotGwynfi1,02711930535118959000645
Neath Port TalbotMargam2,284414513120224251380011,435
Neath Port TalbotPort Talbot4,2576121,146168460412490022,678
Neath Port TalbotSandfields East5,2587371,438191586483040023,306
Neath Port TalbotSandfields West5,0186291,452171581442770023,156
Neath Port TalbotTai-bach3,6114941,002138399332040022,272
 Total49,8897,10213,4141,9645,4644682,945001731,374

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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