Cambridgeshire North West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Cambridgeshire North West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Shailesh Vara  (CON)
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 93,223
Turnout: 68.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON37,52958.6%30.2%
LAB19,52130.5%17.3%
LIB3,1685.0%16.3%
UKIP2,5183.9%1.3%
Green1,2552.0%6.7%
Brexit00.0%26.0%
OTH00.0%2.2%
CON Majority18,00828.1%Pred Maj 4.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
47%
LAB
11%
LIB
9%
UKIP
0%
Green
1%
Brexit
31%
OTH
0%

Cambridgeshire North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Cambridgeshire North West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right9° Right
National Position10° Nat7° Nat
Social Position4° Con3° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %59%56%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born89%89%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job54%53%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age47.949.448.5
ABC1 Class57%55%53%

Cambridgeshire North West ranks #191 for "Leave", #92 for "Right", #153 for "National" and #215 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cambridgeshire North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Cambridgeshire North West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Cambridgeshire North West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Cambridgeshire North West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Cambridgeshire North West. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Cambridgeshire North WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
HuntingdonshireEarith20152,199570073700
HuntingdonshireEllington201596411161822100
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth2014531127027300
HuntingdonshireRamsey20152,234001,76300
HuntingdonshireSawtry2014877239081300
HuntingdonshireSomersham20152,010534072200
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East201462122615658200
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South201486634024658500
HuntingdonshireStilton20151,113269033400
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys20151,037019738200
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury201486417213857600
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet20152,7661,01601,45100
PeterboroughBarnack2012572143012300
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston20151,7981,43700511804
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering201482920504640379
PeterboroughNorthborough20151,140003681790
PeterboroughOrton Longueville20151,3981,12201,1282340
PeterboroughOrton Waterville20152,53287409243190
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton20152,4761,3284981,0474980
PeterboroughStanground Central20153,1492,30401,560376324
PeterboroughStanground East2015775403001360

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Cambridgeshire North WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireEarith4,5352,11471013211541003,112
HuntingdonshireEllington2,3751,0673341536016001,630
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth1,991952303425315001,365
HuntingdonshireRamsey6,4182,8581,15015918651004,404
HuntingdonshireSawtry4,8712,16384813815242003,343
HuntingdonshireSomersham4,4232,03171912811839003,035
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East15531100010
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South210000001
HuntingdonshireStilton2,3111,071377596119001,587
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys2,5771,1653771466317001,768
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury4,6222,01875423513233003,172
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet8,2283,3541,73725024067005,648
PeterboroughBarnack2,1431,039318445217001,470
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston8,4672,8652,367251140189005,812
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering5,4002,42893913316937003,706
PeterboroughNorthborough2,000938294515337001,373
PeterboroughOrton Longueville7,5992,2922,304227239154005,216
PeterboroughOrton Waterville6,1842,4791,275194175122004,245
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton10,2003,6102,352565274201007,002
PeterboroughStanground Central6,5682,1941,800200198117004,509
PeterboroughStanground East2,293881555593841001,574
 Total93,22237,52519,5163,1672,5191,2550063,982

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cambridgeshire North West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Cambridgeshire North West.

Cambridgeshire North WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
UKIP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireEarith4,5351,134421604858214340833,348
HuntingdonshireEllington2,375605210404390116160471,788
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth1,99152918624737693150351,481
HuntingdonshireRamsey6,4181,4386526291,386287580964,546
HuntingdonshireSawtry4,8711,1184865251,038221430763,507
HuntingdonshireSomersham4,4231,071424512884201360723,200
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East15322200009
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South2100000001
HuntingdonshireStilton2,311571220273448107190381,676
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys2,577633230338452117210371,828
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury4,6221,058442584920211390743,328
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet8,2281,7209708641,6413817701255,778
PeterboroughBarnack2,14357719528339999160401,609
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston8,4671,5581,4069551,2144178101125,743
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering5,4001,3195315921,030253480763,849
PeterboroughNorthborough2,00050017922943489160351,482
PeterboroughOrton Longueville7,5991,1641,3407161,3673648101055,137
PeterboroughOrton Waterville6,1841,3507397581,1243205601014,448
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton10,2002,0031,3921,3861,3985409701446,960
PeterboroughStanground Central6,5681,1031,0306181,315299690924,526
PeterboroughStanground East2,293455323230425104210331,591
 Total93,22219,91011,37810,74917,1014,43384301,42165,835

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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