Darlington: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Darlington: Overview

 Prediction: CON gain from LAB 

MP at 2017: Jenny Chapman  (LAB)
County/Area: Durham (North East)
Electorate: 66,341
Turnout: 67.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB22,68150.6%32.7%
CON19,40143.3%33.4%
UKIP1,1802.6%0.6%
LIB1,0312.3%12.0%
Green5241.2%4.1%
Brexit00.0%15.3%
OTH00.0%1.9%
LAB Majority3,2807.3%Pred Maj 0.7%
Chance of
winning
LAB
46%
CON
46%
UKIP
0%
LIB
3%
Green
0%
Brexit
6%
OTH
0%

Darlington : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Darlington constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat North EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position4° Left9° Left
National Position4° Nat4° Nat
Social Position2° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %57%58%52%
British Identity25%26%29%
Good Health44%44%48%
UK Born94%95%88%
Good Education35%35%39%
Good Job46%46%51%
High SEC46%44%51%
Average Age49.249.048.5
ABC1 Class46%47%54%

Darlington ranks #237 for "Leave", #403 for "Right", #298 for "National" and #305 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Darlington: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Darlington: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Darlington

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Darlington at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Darlington. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

DarlingtonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
DarlingtonBank Top and Lascelles20156473,2253707044230
DarlingtonBrinkburn and Faverdale20153,2873,13825101,1110
DarlingtonCockerton20158394,10751105810
DarlingtonCollege20152,4751,39402093150
DarlingtonEastbourne20156392,89521902671,404
DarlingtonHarrowgate Hill20152,3793,6041,39304800
DarlingtonHaughton and Springfield20151,0503,986006680
DarlingtonHummersknott20152,8661,06032502660
DarlingtonMowden20152,2621,38403731860
DarlingtonNorth Road20153882,1562,3804354640
DarlingtonNorthgate20154981,29500243465
DarlingtonPark East20155302,545594534464915
DarlingtonPark West20152,9581,316004390
DarlingtonPierremont20152,4343,68928404960
DarlingtonRed Hall and Lingfield20159791,60121202220
DarlingtonStephenson20154251,329002710
DarlingtonWhinfield20151,2411,88105342150

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

DarlingtonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DarlingtonBank Top and Lascelles5,2971,2372,0618815438003,578
DarlingtonBrinkburn and Faverdale4,4541,5641,300704729003,010
DarlingtonCockerton4,5981,0341,895875733003,106
DarlingtonCollege3,1031,259691575831002,096
DarlingtonEastbourne5,1121,2392,050686235003,454
DarlingtonHarrowgate Hill4,5121,3561,4951065735003,049
DarlingtonHaughton and Springfield4,6131,0861,894485535003,118
DarlingtonHummersknott2,7811,294497452418001,878
DarlingtonMowden2,7111,124591227519001,831
DarlingtonNorth Road4,7721,2501,66310316443003,223
DarlingtonNorthgate3,2627661,348223533002,204
DarlingtonPark East5,1741,2401,9539016447003,494
DarlingtonPark West3,1641,410626462729002,138
DarlingtonPierremont4,4401,2941,536805238003,000
DarlingtonRed Hall and Lingfield2,7197451,001423217001,837
DarlingtonStephenson2,6476181,103183020001,789
DarlingtonWhinfield2,982886979398723002,014
 Total66,34119,40222,6831,0311,1805230044,819

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Darlington

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Darlington.

DarlingtonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
UKIP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DarlingtonBank Top and Lascelles5,2971,0441,357384619155270753,661
DarlingtonBrinkburn and Faverdale4,4541,171895406454125150583,124
DarlingtonCockerton4,5988841,240355497130190653,190
DarlingtonCollege3,1039635063872608980402,253
DarlingtonEastbourne5,1121,0151,342355573147220713,525
DarlingtonHarrowgate Hill4,5121,088980386513123170603,167
DarlingtonHaughton and Springfield4,6139501,217349509130170633,235
DarlingtonHummersknott2,7811,0003643342506470352,054
DarlingtonMowden2,7118984112662966290361,978
DarlingtonNorth Road4,7721,0041,114358580138270683,289
DarlingtonNorthgate3,262599957218300108110412,234
DarlingtonPark East5,1741,0051,324399592163270743,584
DarlingtonPark West3,1641,0694633792688370412,310
DarlingtonPierremont4,4409951,046383439140160613,080
DarlingtonRed Hall and Lingfield2,71959565519432273110381,888
DarlingtonStephenson2,64752872018328475110381,839
DarlingtonWhinfield2,98272863924935283130392,103
 Total66,34115,53615,2305,5857,1081,888264090346,514

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (23-Sep-2019 10:40)