Herefordshire North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Herefordshire North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Bill Wiggin  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 67,751
Turnout: 74.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,09762.0%59.6%
LAB9,49518.9%18.9%
LIB5,87411.7%18.0%
Green2,7715.5%3.5%
OTH9401.9%0.0%
CON Majority21,60243.1%Pred Maj 40.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LAB
2%
LIB
2%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Herefordshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Herefordshire North constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat West MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position12° Right3° Right
National Position11° Nat7° Nat
Social Position5° Con6° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %57%59%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education42%35%39%
Good Job48%48%51%
High SEC53%46%51%
Average Age53.548.748.5
ABC1 Class51%49%54%

Herefordshire North ranks #235 for "Leave", #121 for "Right", #133 for "National" and #164 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Herefordshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Herefordshire North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Herefordshire North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Herefordshire North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Herefordshire North. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Herefordshire NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
HerefordshireArrow20151,4860000571
HerefordshireBackbury201558000001,089
HerefordshireBircher201563800001,617
HerefordshireBishops Frome and Cradley20151,3310006100
HerefordshireBromyard Bringsty201571500001,172
HerefordshireBromyard West20156230000751
HerefordshireCastle201582300001,045
HerefordshireCredenhill201544900001,250
HerefordshireHagley201574900001,272
HerefordshireHampton20151,1650000896
HerefordshireHolmer201557700001,170
HerefordshireHope End20151,2660000876
HerefordshireKington201500-1000
HerefordshireLedbury North201566800001,008
HerefordshireLedbury South2015822026600606
HerefordshireLedbury West20157150000827
HerefordshireLeominster East2015587002647480
HerefordshireLeominster North and Rural20151,2960006290
HerefordshireLeominster South2015425000492686
HerefordshireLeominster West2015486017406820
HerefordshireMortimer201578000001,123
HerefordshireOld Gore20151,0590000894
HerefordshireQueenswood201567800001,351
HerefordshireStoney Street2015611000362962
HerefordshireSutton Walls201580200001,017
HerefordshireThree Crosses20151,2880000770
HerefordshireWeobley20159880000966

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Herefordshire NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireArrow2,8761,5133081860770452,129
HerefordshireBackbury2,3021,0853171930720381,705
HerefordshireBircher2,8571,3283922510950502,116
HerefordshireBishops Frome and Cradley2,4081,21423114901670231,784
HerefordshireBromyard Bringsty2,5781,1913802170820401,910
HerefordshireBromyard West2,4541,0694312090720351,816
HerefordshireCastle2,3661,1702871840710411,753
HerefordshireCredenhill2,7411,2394262380830442,030
HerefordshireHagley3,0051,3854442570920472,225
HerefordshireHampton2,6741,3912991820720361,980
HerefordshireHolmer1,120502172102035018829
HerefordshireHope End2,7691,4263062010800382,051
HerefordshireKington2,6119793455080790211,932
HerefordshireLedbury North2,4631,0793972290790401,824
HerefordshireLedbury South2,5511,0793623420730341,890
HerefordshireLedbury West2,9181,2924832550880422,160
HerefordshireLeominster East2,8711,07450723702860222,126
HerefordshireLeominster North and Rural3,1731,42445722002280212,350
HerefordshireLeominster South2,71498849623402530392,010
HerefordshireLeominster West2,17179533227401900161,607
HerefordshireMortimer2,4881,1813331990780521,843
HerefordshireOld Gore2,4661,2782771700690321,826
HerefordshireQueenswood2,7081,2444072240830462,004
HerefordshireStoney Street402161633103706298
HerefordshireSutton Walls2,6111,2383792020760391,934
HerefordshireThree Crosses2,7001,4083081790710331,999
HerefordshireWeobley2,7541,3613562010810422,041
 Total67,75131,0949,4955,87402,769094050,172

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Herefordshire North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Herefordshire North.

Herefordshire NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
UKIP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HerefordshireArrow2,8761,3223253190540002,020
HerefordshireBackbury2,3029612963090510001,617
HerefordshireBircher2,8571,1993683800590002,006
HerefordshireBishops Frome and Cradley2,4089952743370850001,691
HerefordshireBromyard Bringsty2,5781,0983483100540001,810
HerefordshireBromyard West2,4541,0563652540490001,724
HerefordshireCastle2,3661,0452852860450001,661
HerefordshireCredenhill2,7411,1463813350630001,925
HerefordshireHagley3,0051,2504023860710002,109
HerefordshireHampton2,6741,2183033080490001,878
HerefordshireHolmer1,120467154140026000787
HerefordshireHope End2,7691,1613234000610001,945
HerefordshireKington2,6111,0243494080520001,833
HerefordshireLedbury North2,4639903523330550001,730
HerefordshireLedbury South2,5511,0433373620500001,792
HerefordshireLedbury West2,9181,2004233530710002,047
HerefordshireLeominster East2,8711,09146233101310002,015
HerefordshireLeominster North and Rural3,1731,31044835701130002,228
HerefordshireLeominster South2,71499044635601130001,905
HerefordshireLeominster West2,1718163203060820001,524
HerefordshireMortimer2,4881,0673223050530001,747
HerefordshireOld Gore2,4661,0922843040510001,731
HerefordshireQueenswood2,7081,1263663480610001,901
HerefordshireStoney Street4021555952016000282
HerefordshireSutton Walls2,6111,1163453160580001,835
HerefordshireThree Crosses2,7001,2053123240550001,896
HerefordshireWeobley2,7541,2103423260560001,934
 Total67,75128,3538,9918,54501,68400047,573

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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