High Peak: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

High Peak: Overview

 Prediction: CON gain from LAB 

MP at 2017: Ruth George  (LAB)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 73,254
Turnout: 73.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB26,75349.7%32.7%
CON24,43145.4%33.1%
LIB2,6695.0%15.4%
Brexit00.0%14.1%
Green00.0%2.9%
UKIP00.0%0.7%
OTH00.0%1.2%
LAB Majority2,3224.3%Pred Maj 0.4%
Chance of
winning
LAB
44%
CON
46%
LIB
5%
Brexit
5%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

High Peak : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the High Peak constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position3° Right4° Right
National Position1° Nat8° Nat
Social Position4° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %51%59%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health48%45%48%
UK Born96%91%88%
Good Education43%36%39%
Good Job51%48%51%
High SEC52%47%51%
Average Age50.049.148.5
ABC1 Class53%50%54%

High Peak ranks #406 for "Leave", #305 for "Right", #359 for "National" and #392 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

High Peak: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

High Peak: Ward-by-ward

Workings for High Peak

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of High Peak at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of High Peak. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

High PeakActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
High PeakBarms2015349418000155
High PeakBlackbrook20151,9089581,2322872420
High PeakBurbage2015582320000267
High PeakBuxton Central20151,1791,45700340542
High PeakChapel East201565835012401020
High PeakChapel West20152,3011,63729403030
High PeakCorbar20151,8231,14100205613
High PeakCote Heath20151,8451,29000205263
High PeakDinting201572036401281130
High PeakGamesley201515371600930
High PeakHadfield North2015304549018900
High PeakHadfield South20151,6741,87506492540
High PeakHayfield201558433818701450
High PeakHope Valley20152,19048203291,2280
High PeakHoward Town20157152,416006730
High PeakLimestone Peak2015575306026300
High PeakNew Mills East20154951,52534602640
High PeakNew Mills West20151,2419591,0683585830
High PeakOld Glossop20151,8641,5340332270633
High PeakPadfield20156356490000
High PeakSett201557742310901650
High PeakSimmondley20152,0181,4254854202290
High PeakSt John's201555722819413800
High PeakStone Bench20156112,044000385
High PeakTemple201576039100112131
High PeakTintwistle2015308607016000
High PeakWhaley Bridge20152,6263,0392,21806911,594
High PeakWhitfield201532454901521000

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

High PeakEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
High PeakBarms1,5164566253300001,114
High PeakBlackbrook3,2641,25694120200002,399
High PeakBurbage1,6746914964400001,231
High PeakBuxton Central3,3751,0191,3719100002,481
High PeakChapel East1,8477015797900001,359
High PeakChapel West3,2531,2201,04712500002,392
High PeakCorbar3,1041,2379648100002,282
High PeakCote Heath3,1821,1511,1206800002,339
High PeakDinting1,5976944413900001,174
High PeakGamesley2,0413781,0972600001,501
High PeakHadfield North1,7944937893600001,318
High PeakHadfield South3,6301,1611,4228600002,669
High PeakHayfield1,65561849310600001,217
High PeakHope Valley3,1061,3978137300002,283
High PeakHoward Town3,5197831,7069800002,587
High PeakLimestone Peak1,7967235593800001,320
High PeakNew Mills East3,2207361,45717400002,367
High PeakNew Mills West3,3761,0701,15525700002,482
High PeakOld Glossop3,6801,3741,2458600002,705
High PeakPadfield1,9266257474400001,416
High PeakSett1,5846014897500001,165
High PeakSimmondley3,5821,3651,08818100002,634
High PeakSt John's1,4736243857300001,082
High PeakStone Bench3,7187681,8877800002,733
High PeakTemple1,7007314813900001,251
High PeakTintwistle1,6334597083400001,201
High PeakWhaley Bridge5,1931,6341,82036500003,819
High PeakWhitfield1,8134668274100001,334
 Total73,25124,43126,7522,672000053,855

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for High Peak

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of High Peak.

High PeakPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
UKIP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
High PeakBarms1,5163324161431683490151,117
High PeakBlackbrook3,26492464046133364170272,466
High PeakBurbage1,6744823391851893490141,252
High PeakBuxton Central3,37574393436632886190332,509
High PeakChapel East1,84749639020221536100161,365
High PeakChapel West3,25388269435737863180292,421
High PeakCorbar3,10489266537929463170282,338
High PeakCote Heath3,18280973827240662190282,334
High PeakDinting1,5975113022081562980131,227
High PeakGamesley2,04130771715721948140211,483
High PeakHadfield North1,79437551416219541110171,315
High PeakHadfield South3,63086992735941177210322,696
High PeakHayfield1,6554543362421633480141,251
High PeakHope Valley3,10699356638031057160272,349
High PeakHoward Town3,5196241,12938231594210332,598
High PeakLimestone Peak1,79651336414125831110141,332
High PeakNew Mills East3,22059894835333874190302,360
High PeakNew Mills West3,37679478049233378180282,523
High PeakOld Glossop3,6801,00283944735578190322,772
High PeakPadfield1,92644750321119046100181,425
High PeakSett1,5844383312211563480131,201
High PeakSimmondley3,58299973649835674190292,711
High PeakSt John's1,4734562611961562770131,116
High PeakStone Bench3,7186171,21129542286240362,691
High PeakTemple1,7005363312191663290131,306
High PeakTintwistle1,6333544571621763790141,209
High PeakWhaley Bridge5,1931,2361,216740508113280463,887
High PeakWhitfield1,81335854317119142110171,333
 Total73,25118,04117,8278,4017,6851,574409065054,587

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (23-Sep-2019 10:40)