Hyndburn: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Hyndburn: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Graham Jones  (LAB)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 73,110
Turnout: 61.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB24,12053.4%36.6%
CON18,30540.5%29.3%
UKIP1,9534.3%1.3%
LIB8241.8%9.9%
Brexit00.0%15.0%
Green00.0%5.4%
OTH00.0%2.4%
LAB Majority5,81512.9%Pred Maj 7.3%
Chance of
winning
LAB
60%
CON
32%
UKIP
0%
LIB
2%
Brexit
5%
Green
1%
OTH
0%

Hyndburn : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Hyndburn constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position1° Left4° Left
National Position11° Nat1° Nat
Social Position10° Con2° Con
TribeCentrists
EU Leave %65%54%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health43%46%48%
UK Born93%92%88%
Good Education32%37%39%
Good Job42%49%51%
High SEC41%48%51%
Average Age48.448.648.5
ABC1 Class41%50%53%

Hyndburn ranks #67 for "Leave", #367 for "Right", #138 for "National" and #25 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Hyndburn: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Hyndburn: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Hyndburn

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Hyndburn at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Hyndburn. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

HyndburnActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
HyndburnAltham20155851,16405941030
HyndburnBarnfield2015691938042500
HyndburnBaxenden20151,0447360515620
HyndburnCentral20155161,5630224045
HyndburnChurch20153381,029045600
HyndburnClayton-le-Moors2015776951053500
HyndburnHuncoat201580993305391060
HyndburnImmanuel20159867060516780
HyndburnMilnshaw20155421,179047400
HyndburnNetherton20151,0931,13209001640
HyndburnOverton20144397220713990
HyndburnPeel2014056802663957
HyndburnRishton20159711,391090400
HyndburnSpring Hill2014601877027800
HyndburnSt Andrew's2014646368030000
HyndburnSt Oswald's20151,2671,00501,08700
RossendaleGreenfield20151,44094504311620
RossendaleWorsley20157791,203057500

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

HyndburnEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HyndburnAltham4,3501,0441,470531230002,690
HyndburnBarnfield3,5808791,19941950002,214
HyndburnBaxenden3,1331,02178545860001,937
HyndburnCentral4,7567272,10629800002,942
HyndburnChurch3,7276371,53732980002,304
HyndburnClayton-le-Moors3,7301,0141,145441030002,306
HyndburnHuncoat3,4199211,05739970002,114
HyndburnImmanuel3,6641,1181,000451030002,266
HyndburnMilnshaw3,4617511,25145930002,140
HyndburnNetherton3,5829311,14739980002,215
HyndburnOverton4,9651,2441,609621550003,070
HyndburnPeel3,6626441,476451000002,265
HyndburnRishton5,2451,3811,656541510003,242
HyndburnSpring Hill4,1558481,58932990002,568
HyndburnSt Andrew's3,4301,04993245950002,121
HyndburnSt Oswald's5,0151,5181,366661500003,100
RossendaleGreenfield4,4951,4611,155491130002,778
RossendaleWorsley4,7401,1151,641581160002,930
 Total73,10918,30324,1218231,95500045,202

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Hyndburn

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Hyndburn.

HyndburnPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
UKIP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HyndburnAltham4,350751888282477156410742,669
HyndburnBarnfield3,580651806227268125280522,157
HyndburnBaxenden3,133700490234391115250582,013
HyndburnCentral4,7564881,8041601580100162,573
HyndburnChurch3,7274951,098189157109270352,110
HyndburnClayton-le-Moors3,730706699238456132340652,330
HyndburnHuncoat3,419645651228395125300612,135
HyndburnImmanuel3,664745605226510127340632,310
HyndburnMilnshaw3,461576814215307118300542,114
HyndburnNetherton3,582673823199205110280392,077
HyndburnOverton4,965894981327598177460873,110
HyndburnPeel3,662494926197280125370502,109
HyndburnRishton5,245962996329661189500913,278
HyndburnSpring Hill4,1556021,213186110107250292,272
HyndburnSt Andrew's3,430687578204428119340552,105
HyndburnSt Oswald's5,0151,019823316719171460883,182
RossendaleGreenfield4,4951,040800335374160320752,816
RossendaleWorsley4,7408091,151283276145350562,755
 Total73,10912,93716,1464,3756,6272,39059201,04844,115

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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