Mansfield: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Mansfield: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Ben Bradley  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 77,811
Turnout: 64.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON23,39246.6%34.2%
LAB22,33544.5%29.7%
UKIP2,6545.3%1.1%
MIN1,0792.2%0.0%
LIB6971.4%9.3%
Brexit00.0%22.2%
Green00.0%2.3%
OTH00.0%1.2%
CON Majority1,0572.1%Pred Maj 4.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
51%
LAB
34%
UKIP
0%
MIN
0%
LIB
2%
Brexit
14%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Mansfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Mansfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Left4° Right
National Position16° Nat8° Nat
Social Position6° Con4° Con
TribeSomewheres
EU Leave %71%59%52%
British Identity21%27%29%
Good Health41%45%48%
UK Born94%91%88%
Good Education28%36%39%
Good Job41%48%51%
High SEC40%47%51%
Average Age49.149.148.5
ABC1 Class40%50%54%

Mansfield ranks #15 for "Leave", #416 for "Right", #23 for "National" and #114 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Mansfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Mansfield: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Mansfield

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Mansfield at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Mansfield. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

MansfieldActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
MansfieldAbbott20150626070500
MansfieldBerry Hill2015503245000876
MansfieldBrick Kiln20150712000559
MansfieldBroomhill20150504000543
MansfieldBull Farm and Pleasley Hill2015055003570422
MansfieldCarr Bank20150500000576
MansfieldEakring20150552000902
MansfieldGrange Farm201503700001,146
MansfieldHolly20150505000979
MansfieldHornby201506600599034
MansfieldKings Walk20150544000707
MansfieldKingsway2015346523000390
MansfieldLadybrook20150624000453
MansfieldLindhurst2015035100207914
MansfieldLing Forest20150538000909
MansfieldManor20150-10000
MansfieldMarket Warsop20150785000468
MansfieldMaun Valley20150561000951
MansfieldMeden20150932000384
MansfieldNetherfield2015047503710483
MansfieldNewgate20150431000523
MansfieldNewlands20150615067900
MansfieldOak Tree20150552000351
MansfieldOakham2015410441000452
MansfieldPark Hall20150820049300
MansfieldPeafields20150704000677
MansfieldPenniment20150716000454
MansfieldPortland20150429000261
MansfieldRacecourse20150416000821
MansfieldRansom Wood20150638048400
MansfieldSandhurst20150528000716
MansfieldSherwood20150595000532
MansfieldWarsop Carrs201501,069000391
MansfieldWoodhouse20150840000421
MansfieldWoodlands20150421000569
MansfieldYeoman Hill20150721000716

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

MansfieldEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MansfieldAbbott1,9665415531214401801,268
MansfieldBerry Hill1,831808273154603801,180
MansfieldBrick Kiln2,363643759295803301,522
MansfieldBroomhill2,241632710215802401,445
MansfieldBull Farm and Pleasley Hill2,4917036711917903301,605
MansfieldCarr Bank2,317634750145703801,493
MansfieldEakring2,086703526315403301,347
MansfieldGrange Farm2,210813478336103901,424
MansfieldHolly2,342813569346303101,510
MansfieldHornby1,9586034852213401801,262
MansfieldKings Walk2,204763556245302601,422
MansfieldKingsway2,077675563205302801,339
MansfieldLadybrook2,497641849166403901,609
MansfieldLindhurst1,965773386155503801,267
MansfieldLing Forest2,030673524235503301,308
MansfieldManor2,135623670145201701,376
MansfieldMarket Warsop2,320649746115503501,496
MansfieldMaun Valley2,003650526245403701,291
MansfieldMeden2,100587682124802501,354
MansfieldNetherfield2,2046595411516803801,421
MansfieldNewgate2,203599715145803501,421
MansfieldNewlands2,3376536432016902201,507
MansfieldOak Tree2,184537778115203001,408
MansfieldOakham1,805703370214302601,163
MansfieldPark Hall2,2795946932214601501,470
MansfieldPeafields2,288682687225503001,476
MansfieldPenniment2,204579736225303001,420
MansfieldPortland1,723441589114402501,110
MansfieldRacecourse2,183698594235803401,407
MansfieldRansom Wood2,1235216681214302501,369
MansfieldSandhurst2,096644590315603001,351
MansfieldSherwood1,786528541194302101,152
MansfieldWarsop Carrs2,320630769115403201,496
MansfieldWoodhouse2,514635880155903101,620
MansfieldWoodlands1,827588501124703001,178
MansfieldYeoman Hill2,597775766266504201,674
 Total77,80923,39322,3376962,65601,079050,161

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Mansfield

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Mansfield.

MansfieldPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
UKIP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MansfieldAbbott1,96645836910136326190151,351
MansfieldBerry Hill1,83163422316524124100131,310
MansfieldBrick Kiln2,36350352614135738170181,600
MansfieldBroomhill2,24147949512233035170181,496
MansfieldBull Farm and Pleasley Hill2,49155547713644236260191,691
MansfieldCarr Bank2,31746854214232642170201,557
MansfieldEakring2,08654737815929933140161,446
MansfieldGrange Farm2,21062235216033333150161,531
MansfieldHolly2,34260841117334338160171,606
MansfieldHornby1,95849933212534827180141,363
MansfieldKings Walk2,20454642418526345150161,494
MansfieldKingsway2,07751639613331932150161,427
MansfieldLadybrook2,49749160213935143190211,666
MansfieldLindhurst1,96560129817026928130141,393
MansfieldLing Forest2,03052537013931730140141,409
MansfieldManor2,13551544514032933150161,493
MansfieldMarket Warsop2,32050951512535835170191,578
MansfieldMaun Valley2,00349537613430432150141,370
MansfieldMeden2,10047646612631731140171,447
MansfieldNetherfield2,20452038511740630240181,500
MansfieldNewgate2,20344251212231539170201,467
MansfieldNewlands2,33753343512043432240181,596
MansfieldOak Tree2,18441155713330340170201,481
MansfieldOakham1,80553928516223328110131,271
MansfieldPark Hall2,27949047112439134210181,549
MansfieldPeafields2,28852848416032538160181,569
MansfieldPenniment2,20445650713032835170181,491
MansfieldPortland1,7233314179024732130161,146
MansfieldRacecourse2,18351742613532935160181,476
MansfieldRansom Wood2,12342246411336434210181,436
MansfieldSandhurst2,09649342315229737140161,432
MansfieldSherwood1,78640838211725730120141,220
MansfieldWarsop Carrs2,32049152713734839170181,577
MansfieldWoodhouse2,51449361314036743190211,696
MansfieldWoodlands1,82744836412025328120161,241
MansfieldYeoman Hill2,59759554217338144180211,774
 Total77,80918,16415,7914,96011,7871,239595061453,150

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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