|CON Majority||1,399||3.1%||Pred Maj 23.6%|
The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Morecambe and Lunesdale constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.
The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).
The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
|Indicator||Seat||North West||All GB|
|Economic Position||3° Right||4° Left||0°|
|National Position||7° Nat||1° Nat||0°|
|Social Position||5° Con||2° Con||0°|
|EU Leave %||57%||54%||52%|
Morecambe and Lunesdale ranks #242 for "Leave", #302 for "Right", #203 for "National" and #176 for "Social" out of 650 seats.
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
|Topic||Cat 1||Cat 2||Cat 3||Cat 4||Cat 5|
|Economic Position||Very Left||Left||Centrist||Right||Very Right|
|National Position||Very Global||Global||Centrist||National||Very Nat|
|Social Position||Very Lib||Liberal||Moderate||Conservative||Very Cons|
|EU Leave %||Very Remain||Remain||Balanced||Leave||Very Leave|
|Census||Very Low||Low||Medium||High||Very High|
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
|Definition / Included Census Categories|
|Party Winner||–||Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus|
|Economic Position||–||Economic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.|
|National Position||–||National position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.|
|Social Position||–||Social position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.|
|Tribe||–||Tribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.|
|EU Leave %||–||EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate|
|British Identity||National Identity (KS202)||Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British|
|Good Health||Health (KS301)||Those answering 'Very Good Health'|
|UK Born||Country of Birth (QS203)||Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other|
|Good Education||Highest level of Qualification (QS501)||Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)|
|Good Job||Occupation (QS606)||Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)|
|High SEC||NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)||National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).|
|Average Age||Age (QS103)||Average age of adults (18 years and above)|
|ABC1 Class||Approximated Social Grade (QS611)||Approximated social grades A, B and C1|
This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Morecambe and Lunesdale at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.
Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.
Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.
There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.
Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.
Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.
The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Morecambe and Lunesdale. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.
|Morecambe and Lunesdale||Actual Results||District||Ward||Election|
|Lancaster||Bare||2015||2,467||2,310||372||603||682||3,051||Lancaster||Bolton and Slyne||2015||5,620||2,055||419||0||944||1,719||Lancaster||Carnforth and Millhead||2015||3,827||2,929||0||0||495||0||Lancaster||Halton-with-Aughton||2015||364||142||0||0||423||577||Lancaster||Harbour||2015||722||3,456||0||840||359||833||Lancaster||Heysham Central||2015||724||1,521||0||0||0||1,441||Lancaster||Heysham North||2015||491||1,500||0||420||162||507||Lancaster||Heysham South||2015||2,244||2,552||0||673||0||740||Lancaster||Kellet||2015||982||216||0||0||139||0||Lancaster||Overton||2015||488||265||0||0||58||329||Lancaster||Poulton||2015||398||1,250||0||426||339||716||Lancaster||Silverdale||2015||400||109||327||0||142||358||Lancaster||Skerton East||2015||848||3,653||0||0||1,519||232||Lancaster||Skerton West||2015||1,037||4,053||0||816||740||295||Lancaster||Torrisholme||2015||901||1,251||192||504||176||1,164||Lancaster||Upper Lune Valley||2015||1,103||221||0||0||187||0||Lancaster||Warton||2015||529||266||0||0||178||248||Lancaster||Westgate||2015||985||3,655||0||970||0||696|
The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.
|Morecambe and Lunesdale||Est. 2017 General Election Results|
|Lancaster||Bolton and Slyne||5,576||2,489||1,049||169||62||40||0||0||3,809|
|Lancaster||Carnforth and Millhead||4,631||1,699||1,272||107||53||33||0||0||3,164|
|Lancaster||Upper Lune Valley||1,810||897||289||24||15||11||0||0||1,236|
This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Morecambe and Lunesdale.
|Morecambe and Lunesdale||Predicted Results|
|Lancaster||Bolton and Slyne||5,576||2,267||768||382||0||82||0||0||10||3,509|
|Lancaster||Carnforth and Millhead||4,631||1,728||858||254||0||66||0||0||8||2,914|
|Lancaster||Upper Lune Valley||1,810||762||227||121||0||27||0||0||3||1,140|
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.
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