Rushcliffe: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Rushcliffe: Overview

 Prediction: Brexit gain from CON 

MP at 2017: Kenneth Clarke  (CON)
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 74,740
Turnout: 78.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,22351.8%23.5%
LAB22,21338.1%21.3%
LIB2,7594.7%16.4%
Green1,6262.8%9.0%
UKIP1,4902.6%1.0%
Brexit00.0%26.2%
ChUK00.0%1.9%
OTH00.0%0.6%
CON Majority8,01013.7%Pred Maj 2.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
28%
LAB
22%
LIB
11%
Green
2%
UKIP
0%
Brexit
38%
ChUK
0%
OTH
0%

Rushcliffe : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Rushcliffe constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right4° Right
National Position7° Glo8° Nat
Social Position5° Lib4° Con
TribeKind Yuppies
EU Leave %41%59%52%
British Identity32%27%29%
Good Health52%45%48%
UK Born93%91%88%
Good Education53%36%39%
Good Job67%48%51%
High SEC68%47%51%
Average Age50.349.148.5
ABC1 Class71%50%53%

Rushcliffe ranks #532 for "Leave", #182 for "Right", #500 for "National" and #514 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Rushcliffe: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Rushcliffe: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Rushcliffe

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Rushcliffe at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Rushcliffe. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

RushcliffeActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
RushcliffeAbbey20152,3921,9814032838310
RushcliffeBunny20151,082315017600
RushcliffeCompton Acres20152,9341,48235329900
RushcliffeCotgrave20153,7643,24107785030
RushcliffeCropwell20151,1204310000
RushcliffeEast Bridgford20151,2733910000
RushcliffeEdwalton20152,0267892972615780
RushcliffeGamston North2015795437016600
RushcliffeGamston South20159294570000
RushcliffeGotham2015836378036400
RushcliffeKeyworth and Wolds20157,2422,6581,1131,7537210
RushcliffeLady Bay20151,3371,435002,9220
RushcliffeLeake20155,6072,276087001,167
RushcliffeLutterell20152,3542,381467000
RushcliffeMusters20151,5371,1822,367000
RushcliffeNevile and Langar20151,3243990000
RushcliffeRadcliffe on Trent20156,0142,85105706633,216
RushcliffeRuddington20155,2233,29607041,3580
RushcliffeSutton Bonington201559825315013900
RushcliffeThoroton2015-100000
RushcliffeTollerton20151,1344140000
RushcliffeTrent Bridge20152,0002,40002361,0120

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

RushcliffeEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RushcliffeAbbey4,2601,4841,38723580137003,323
RushcliffeBunny1,9301,009408264519001,507
RushcliffeCompton Acres4,2021,7541,2051858352003,279
RushcliffeCotgrave5,6841,9012,121121161130004,434
RushcliffeCropwell2,011969514372624001,570
RushcliffeEast Bridgford52927211996600412
RushcliffeEdwalton2,9761,2437831416788002,322
RushcliffeGamston North1,996847588494626001,556
RushcliffeGamston South2,082912618492223001,624
RushcliffeGotham1,911862517385123001,491
RushcliffeKeyworth and Wolds6,3092,7381,561311166146004,922
RushcliffeLady Bay4,1551,3501,46419443192003,243
RushcliffeLeake5,5362,5111,48910615064004,320
RushcliffeLutterell4,2321,4651,4842454662003,302
RushcliffeMusters3,6141,3231,0413613659002,820
RushcliffeNevile and Langar2,1431,140456322322001,673
RushcliffeRadcliffe on Trent6,4612,7861,776171142166005,041
RushcliffeRuddington5,6852,1511,814158140173004,436
RushcliffeSutton Bonington1,7417314531094620001,359
RushcliffeThoroton3341836644400261
RushcliffeTollerton1,865963420292220001,454
RushcliffeTrent Bridge5,0821,6291,92814988172003,966
 Total74,73830,22322,2122,7591,4931,6280058,315

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Rushcliffe

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Rushcliffe.

RushcliffePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
ChUK
Votes
UKIP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RushcliffeAbbey4,26060575554572630966260153,047
RushcliffeBunny1,9304611892043671132614091,383
RushcliffeCompton Acres4,20275166750171627061260143,006
RushcliffeCotgrave5,6847031,0336121,23334266520284,069
RushcliffeCropwell2,01142625021638511126150101,439
RushcliffeEast Bridgford529124575699287402377
RushcliffeEdwalton2,97650341636256920442220122,130
RushcliffeGamston North1,9963563082253631282814081,430
RushcliffeGamston South2,0823973422303501212813081,489
RushcliffeGotham1,91136023820640111223160101,366
RushcliffeKeyworth and Wolds6,3091,1487197701,31339586540314,516
RushcliffeLady Bay4,15552581552467832766240152,974
RushcliffeLeake5,5361,0657115981,11832870450273,962
RushcliffeLutterell4,23258382654071126861260153,030
RushcliffeMusters3,61455958453957723261200122,584
RushcliffeNevile and Langar2,14352421522839811528160101,534
RushcliffeRadcliffe on Trent6,4611,1828717271,26141587500304,623
RushcliffeRuddington5,6858569066441,13737974460264,068
RushcliffeSutton Bonington1,7413022132263421162514071,245
RushcliffeThoroton33484293465184302239
RushcliffeTollerton1,8654492011983381042513081,336
RushcliffeTrent Bridge5,0825911,05859887938872330193,638
 Total74,73812,55411,4038,78314,0264,8231,032546031853,485

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2019 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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