Wellingborough: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wellingborough: Overview

 Prediction: Brexit gain from CON 

MP at 2017: Peter Bone  (CON)
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 79,258
Turnout: 67.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,57957.4%23.1%
LAB18,11934.0%16.9%
UKIP1,8043.4%1.4%
LIB1,7823.3%15.5%
Green9561.8%8.1%
Brexit00.0%32.5%
ChUK00.0%1.6%
OTH00.0%0.8%
CON Majority12,46023.4%Pred Maj 9.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
24%
LAB
11%
UKIP
0%
LIB
8%
Green
1%
Brexit
56%
ChUK
0%
OTH
0%

Wellingborough : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wellingborough constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position10° Right4° Right
National Position15° Nat8° Nat
Social Position7° Con4° Con
TribeStrong Right
EU Leave %64%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born89%91%88%
Good Education31%36%39%
Good Job46%48%51%
High SEC46%47%51%
Average Age49.049.148.5
ABC1 Class47%50%53%

Wellingborough ranks #90 for "Leave", #156 for "Right", #45 for "National" and #93 for "Social" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wellingborough: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Wellingborough: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Wellingborough

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wellingborough at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wellingborough. The first block shows the actual results. The second block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WellingboroughActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
OTH
Votes
East NorthamptonshireHigham Ferrers Chichele20151,89500001,098
East NorthamptonshireHigham Ferrers Lancaster2015-200000
East NorthamptonshireRushden Bates20152,476872053200
East NorthamptonshireRushden Hayden20153,9932,378096900
East NorthamptonshireRushden Pemberton20154,1432,364090000
East NorthamptonshireRushden Sartoris20152,379865056200
East NorthamptonshireRushden Spencer20154,8761,362095900
WellingboroughBozeat20159023310000
WellingboroughBrickhill20151,8351,03805172190
WellingboroughCroyland20153,3052,537004510
WellingboroughFinedon20152,194720069800
WellingboroughGreat Doddington and Wilby2015717232027400
WellingboroughHarrowden and Sywell20152,814498000911
WellingboroughHatton20151,804786051700
WellingboroughIrchester20153,5853,029084600
WellingboroughIsebrook20152522250157800
WellingboroughQueensway20152,1772,72807803990
WellingboroughRedwell20155,08998901,04700
WellingboroughRixon20153,5212,169070000
WellingboroughSwanspool20151,7151,5280000
WellingboroughVictoria20152,4142,86705022990
WellingboroughWollaston20152,597540000422

The raw results and adjusted for turnout and combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WellingboroughEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East NorthamptonshireHigham Ferrers Chichele2,9281,369468683626001,967
East NorthamptonshireHigham Ferrers Lancaster3,5861,775501654226002,409
East NorthamptonshireRushden Bates3,6361,560681819526002,443
East NorthamptonshireRushden Hayden5,3441,8831,36914414350003,589
East NorthamptonshireRushden Pemberton5,1181,9131,21412913745003,438
East NorthamptonshireRushden Sartoris3,0461,317546807925002,047
East NorthamptonshireRushden Spencer4,7422,07782711612441003,185
WellingboroughBozeat1,545710272271712001,038
WellingboroughBrickhill3,0091,095693788372002,021
WellingboroughCroyland5,0771,7311,4178264116003,410
WellingboroughFinedon3,2271,340636748928002,167
WellingboroughGreat Doddington and Wilby1,40961324438401200947
WellingboroughHarrowden and Sywell1,688846232241912001,133
WellingboroughHatton2,9151,116661757926001,957
WellingboroughIrchester4,2921,5071,11511211236002,882
WellingboroughIsebrook1,36543237332403900916
WellingboroughQueensway5,4381,4461,798122151136003,653
WellingboroughRedwell4,9992,24480913413140003,358
WellingboroughRixon5,4071,8891,45910514139003,633
WellingboroughSwanspool3,1661,053939634427002,126
WellingboroughVictoria4,2981,1891,4208010396002,888
WellingboroughWollaston3,0231,473444533625002,031
 Total79,25830,57818,1181,7821,8059550053,238

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wellingborough

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wellingborough.

WellingboroughPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Brexit
Votes
Green
Votes
ChUK
Votes
UKIP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East NorthamptonshireHigham Ferrers Chichele2,92856320328858213831250151,845
East NorthamptonshireHigham Ferrers Lancaster3,58674022934269616638300192,260
East NorthamptonshireRushden Bates3,63662930135973118538310182,292
East NorthamptonshireRushden Hayden5,3446426335371,15127353500293,368
East NorthamptonshireRushden Pemberton5,1187095485071,07825853470283,228
East NorthamptonshireRushden Sartoris3,04654523230361015533260161,920
East NorthamptonshireRushden Spencer4,74283635147297224150420252,989
WellingboroughBozeat1,54529912215029374171208975
WellingboroughBrickhill3,00940930829864216531280151,896
WellingboroughCroyland5,0775836894831,06725549470263,199
WellingboroughFinedon3,22750427031770116032310182,033
WellingboroughGreat Doddington and Wilby1,40924610214129074151307888
WellingboroughHarrowden and Sywell1,688367108158314771813081,063
WellingboroughHatton2,91541831128959315630260141,837
WellingboroughIrchester4,29257751342786422045370222,705
WellingboroughIsebrook1,36514117613929282141307864
WellingboroughQueensway5,4384078555261,21928651550273,426
WellingboroughRedwell4,99993434949899025954420253,151
WellingboroughRixon5,4076477305211,10527854480263,409
WellingboroughSwanspool3,16636547330961815931260151,996
WellingboroughVictoria4,29836774740683026243350172,707
WellingboroughWollaston3,02362420029057614333240151,905
 Total79,25811,5528,4507,76016,2144,066813701040049,956

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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