User-defined Prediction

The predicted Westminster results in Scotland, given the Scottish levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

Scottish Prediction

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 16.7%1 18.0%10+12
LAB 42.0%41 30.0%016-1625
LIB 18.9%11 6.0%09-92
UKIP 0.7%0 5.0%00+00
Green 0.7%0 5.0%00+00
SNP 19.9%6 36.0%240+2430
Other 1.1%0 0.1%00+00

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Glasgow North East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 30 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Glasgow North East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2010ElectorateTurn
127Glasgow North EastWillie Bain59,85949.16.455.
226Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillTom Clarke70,06759.
325Glasgow EastMargaret Curran61,51652.35.449.
424Glasgow South WestIan Davidson58,18254.67.850.
523Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathGordon Brown73,66562.210.352.
622GlenrothesLindsay Roy67,89359.
721Dunbartonshire WestGemma Doyle66,08564.08.748.
820Motherwell and WishawFrank Roy66,91858.510.548.
919Rutherglen and Hamilton WestTom Greatrex76,40861.510.848.
1018Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthDouglas Alexander61,19765.411.
1117Airdrie and ShottsPamela Nash62,36457.59.845.
1216Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastGregg McClymont64,03764.39.444.
1315Glasgow CentralAnas Sarwar60,06250.98.539.
1414InverclydeDavid Cairns59,20963.413.
1513Glasgow North WestJohn Robertson60,96858.411.441.
1612Glasgow SouthTom Harris65,02961.712.739.
1711Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthJames Sheridan63,70468.615.741.
1810Dunfermline and West FifeThomas Docherty73,76966.48.233.716.
189Dundee WestJames McGovern63,01358.910.536.
199East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowMichael McCann76,53466.614.
208Kilmarnock and LoudounCathy Jamieson74,13162.815.
207Linlithgow and East FalkirkMichael Connarty80,90763.613.
207LivingstonGraeme Morrice75,92463.
207Glasgow NorthAnn McKechin51,41657.68.632.
217Lanark and Hamilton EastJimmy Hood74,77362.316.
216MidlothianDavid Hamilton61,38763.913.334.
216FalkirkEric Joyce81,86962.012.333.
216Edinburgh EastSheila Gilmore60,94165.412.430.
216Ayrshire North and ArranKaty Clark74,95361.516.734.
216Aberdeen NorthFrank Doran64,80858.213.931.
216Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil22,26666.15.320.
226Ayrshire CentralBrian Donohoe68,35264.221.535.
225East LothianFiona O'Donnell73,43866.921.
225Edinburgh North and LeithMark Lazarowicz69,20468.416.525.
235Ayr Carrick and CumnockSandra Osborne73,32062.626.534.
244Renfrewshire EastJim Murphy66,24977.331.438.
243Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson63,79575.217.021.620.
243Edinburgh South WestAlistair Darling66,35968.525.730.
243Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,47162.016.320.
243StirlingAnne McGuire66,08070.925.329.
243Ochil and South PerthshireGordon Banks75,11567.221.625.
243Aberdeen SouthAnne Begg64,03167.222.324.
253Dumfries and GallowayRussell Brown74,58170.032.633.
252Edinburgh SouthIan Murray59,35473.823.
252Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJohn Thurso47,25760.914.612.
252Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDanny Alexander72,52864.914.99.622.
252Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael33,08558.511.74.043.510.
252Ross Skye and LochaberCharles Kennedy51,83667.213.65.734.
252Edinburgh WestMichael Crockart65,16171.324.715.
252GordonMalcolm Bruce73,42066.420.27.617.
252Argyll and ButeAlan Reid67,16567.325.510.
252Fife North EastSir Menzies Campbell62,96963.623.16.425.87.44.932.30.00.0LIBSNP
252MorayAngus Robertson65,92562.
262Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell66,62768.939.516.
261AngusMichael Weir62,86360.431.
261Perth and North PerthshirePeter Wishart72,14166.931.
261Aberdeenshire West and KincardineSir Robert Smith66,11068.431.
261Banff and BuchanEilidh Whiteford64,30059.831.
271Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkMichael Moore73,82666.435.03.826.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

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