User-defined Prediction

The predicted Westminster results in Scotland, given the Scottish levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

Scottish Prediction

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 16.7%1 18.0%10+12
LAB 42.0%41 30.0%016-1625
LIB 18.9%11 6.0%09-92
UKIP 0.7%0 5.0%00+00
Green 0.7%0 5.0%00+00
SNP 19.9%6 36.0%240+2430
Other 1.1%0 0.1%00+00

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Glasgow North East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 30 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Glasgow North East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2010ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
127Glasgow North EastWillie Bain59,85949.16.455.80.63.63.627.42.70.0LABLAB
226Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillTom Clarke70,06759.49.154.10.63.43.429.40.00.0LABLAB
325Glasgow EastMargaret Curran61,51652.35.449.00.43.73.136.22.10.0LABLAB
424Glasgow South WestIan Davidson58,18254.67.850.00.74.44.432.70.00.0LABLAB
523Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathGordon Brown73,66562.210.352.00.75.33.727.90.00.0LABLAB
622GlenrothesLindsay Roy67,89359.78.149.80.64.33.333.90.00.0LABLAB
721Dunbartonshire WestGemma Doyle66,08564.08.748.80.65.13.533.30.00.0LABLAB
820Motherwell and WishawFrank Roy66,91858.510.548.60.73.83.932.50.00.0LABLAB
919Rutherglen and Hamilton WestTom Greatrex76,40861.510.848.30.95.43.930.70.00.0LABLAB
1018Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthDouglas Alexander61,19765.411.147.10.74.04.033.00.00.0LABLAB
1117Airdrie and ShottsPamela Nash62,36457.59.845.70.63.63.636.80.00.0LABLAB
1216Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastGregg McClymont64,03764.39.444.70.73.73.737.70.00.0LABLAB
1315Glasgow CentralAnas Sarwar60,06250.98.539.51.26.07.836.90.00.0LABLAB
1414InverclydeDavid Cairns59,20963.413.243.51.05.34.132.90.00.0LABLAB
1513Glasgow North WestJohn Robertson60,96858.411.441.51.24.97.433.60.00.0LABLAB
1612Glasgow SouthTom Harris65,02961.712.739.20.94.36.736.20.00.0LABLAB
1711Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthJames Sheridan63,70468.615.741.50.84.04.034.00.00.0LABLAB
1810Dunfermline and West FifeThomas Docherty73,76966.48.233.716.66.45.229.80.00.0LABLAB
189Dundee WestJames McGovern63,01358.910.536.00.84.24.244.40.00.0LABSNP
199East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowMichael McCann76,53466.614.039.00.73.75.736.80.00.0LABLAB
208Kilmarnock and LoudounCathy Jamieson74,13162.815.140.00.53.23.237.90.00.0LABLAB
207Linlithgow and East FalkirkMichael Connarty80,90763.613.137.30.94.04.140.50.00.0LABSNP
207LivingstonGraeme Morrice75,92463.112.036.00.85.24.341.80.00.0LABSNP
207Glasgow NorthAnn McKechin51,41657.68.632.012.85.58.732.40.00.0LABSNP
217Lanark and Hamilton EastJimmy Hood74,77362.316.237.50.85.44.136.10.00.0LABLAB
216MidlothianDavid Hamilton61,38763.913.334.51.35.86.438.80.00.0LABSNP
216FalkirkEric Joyce81,86962.012.333.20.86.23.743.90.00.0LABSNP
216Edinburgh EastSheila Gilmore60,94165.412.430.91.45.210.339.70.00.0LABSNP
216Ayrshire North and ArranKaty Clark74,95361.516.734.90.73.83.840.10.00.0LABSNP
216Aberdeen NorthFrank Doran64,80858.213.931.91.45.35.342.10.00.0LABSNP
216Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil22,26666.15.320.40.63.23.257.79.60.0SNPSNP
226Ayrshire CentralBrian Donohoe68,35264.221.535.20.94.14.134.20.00.0LABLAB
225East LothianFiona O'Donnell73,43866.921.032.11.25.86.433.50.00.0LABSNP
225Edinburgh North and LeithMark Lazarowicz69,20468.416.525.015.35.57.730.00.00.0LABSNP
235Ayr Carrick and CumnockSandra Osborne73,32062.626.534.60.73.53.531.10.00.0LABLAB
244Renfrewshire EastJim Murphy66,24977.331.438.30.74.23.521.90.00.0LABLAB
243Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson63,79575.217.021.620.26.35.229.80.00.0LIBSNP
243Edinburgh South WestAlistair Darling66,35968.525.730.31.35.06.930.80.00.0LABSNP
243Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,47162.016.320.80.84.95.252.00.00.0SNPSNP
243StirlingAnne McGuire66,08070.925.329.31.15.25.933.30.00.0LABSNP
243Ochil and South PerthshireGordon Banks75,11567.221.625.40.85.25.041.90.00.0LABSNP
243Aberdeen SouthAnne Begg64,03167.222.324.09.95.46.432.00.00.0LABSNP
253Dumfries and GallowayRussell Brown74,58170.032.633.40.74.83.425.10.00.0LABLAB
252Edinburgh SouthIan Murray59,35473.823.122.215.55.27.226.90.00.0LABSNP
252Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJohn Thurso47,25760.914.612.122.95.55.539.50.00.0LIBSNP
252Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDanny Alexander72,52864.914.99.622.26.77.239.30.00.0LIBSNP
252Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael33,08558.511.74.043.510.54.226.20.00.0LIBLIB
252Ross Skye and LochaberCharles Kennedy51,83667.213.65.734.16.77.032.90.00.0LIBLIB
252Edinburgh WestMichael Crockart65,16171.324.715.217.45.25.232.40.00.0LIBSNP
252GordonMalcolm Bruce73,42066.420.27.617.55.47.042.30.00.0LIBSNP
252Argyll and ButeAlan Reid67,16567.325.510.213.15.37.138.70.00.0LIBSNP
252Fife North EastSir Menzies Campbell62,96963.623.16.425.87.44.932.30.00.0LIBSNP
252MorayAngus Robertson65,92562.227.26.41.16.74.054.60.00.0SNPSNP
262Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell66,62768.939.516.41.56.56.229.90.00.0CONCON
261AngusMichael Weir62,86360.431.96.50.85.03.552.40.00.0SNPSNP
261Perth and North PerthshirePeter Wishart72,14166.931.66.20.93.83.853.70.00.0SNPSNP
261Aberdeenshire West and KincardineSir Robert Smith66,11068.431.65.119.95.64.733.10.00.0LIBSNP
261Banff and BuchanEilidh Whiteford64,30059.831.85.20.83.63.654.80.00.0SNPSNP
271Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkMichael Moore73,82666.435.03.826.85.44.224.80.00.0LIBCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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