Here is a collected archive of Electoral Calculus blogs and comment articles. These include the "Liberal Leaver" Blog, and Martin Baxter's weekly Campaign Calculus column in the Daily Telegraph online during the 2015 and 2017 General Election Campaigns.
Big decisions are more legitimate and better accepted when taken openly and democratically. The Brexit process has been marred by decisions taken in private by small groups.
This article reviews the unfortunate history and suggests a democratic way forward.
Posted: 10 Jun 2019
Brexiteers have recently become excited by polling which they think shows a majority of the public
supporting 'No Deal'. What's the truth behind the chatter?
Posted: 9 Apr 2019
The EU is steering the UK to a long extension to Brexit with a second
referendum as a potential end point.
Posted: 22 Mar 2019
Punters on political betting markets marked up the chance of a second referendum following
Labour's announcement of potential support on 25 February.
Posted: 26 Feb 2019
Following the votes in the House of Commons on 29 January, betting markets
have reacted to increase the estimated chance of a withdrawal deal being agreed.
Posted: 30 Jan 2019
May can get her deal approved if she gives the public a choice between Deal and No Deal.
The public would also be asked to choose the shape of Brexit, so that Labour and europhile voices are
Posted: 22 Jan 2019
See punters' estimates of various Brexit possibilities
from the betting markets.
Posted: 14 Jan 2019
The public, as well as many MPs, would like a renegotiation of the EU withdrawal agreement. But the EU has no interest in changing the proposed deal.
It would take a bold and risky move by Britain to change the terms of debate and force the EU to reconsider.
Here is how it could work.
Posted: 5 Dec 2018
Recent polling shows the public want May to stay as PM
and avoid another election. But they don't like her proposed
Brexit deal, and more people would rather leave without it.
Posted: 22 Nov 2018
There are many possible types of Brexit, but what sort of Brexit do the public really
want to happen? Recent polls give an insight, and you can have your own say
in a simple online poll.
Posted: 31 Aug 2018
The public put a high priority on post-Brexit trade arrangements. But what are the realistic
possibilities and how do they affect consumers and exporters?
Posted: 4 Dec 2017
John Joseph Boylan looks at the progress of the Brexit negotiations to see which
outcome would be the best for Britain. Recent polls of public opinion highlight the difficulty
of getting both an agreed British position and the right deal.
Posted: 13 Nov 2017
The new London T-Charge takes car manufacturers' test results at face value.
Independent evidence suggests that is a mistake.
Posted: 23 Oct 2017
Mercantilism is a fallacy from the past, and Britain should think about unilateral
trade liberalization as a serious option for a free-trading future.
Photo: James Cridland CC, Posted: 9 Jan 2017
Post-Brexit, any British government can make things better for consumers who are ripped
off by greedy businesses and unnecessary regulatory costs. Here are ten rip-offs which
can be fixed.
Photo: Antonio Guillem ©123RF.com, Posted: 9 Oct 2016
David Ricardo was a dodgy MP in the 1820s, but he had one big great idea which is still important today.
It will affect almost all aspects of Brexit negotiations with the EU and other countries around the world.
Posted: 25 Sep 2016
Diesel engines have been promoted by the EU and British governments because of modest
reductions CO2 but at the expense of massive increases in toxic NO2.
Read about the on-going scandal which kills thousands every year.
Photo: Jim Champion CC, Posted: 10 Sep 2016
House prices are too high for many people, and home ownership is falling.
And it's the government's fault. But it can be fixed.
Photo: David Iliff, CC-BY-SA 3, Posted: 4 Sep 2016
Leaving the EU lets us liberalise our copyright laws. They are
too strict and have been captured by the media companies to rip off consumers.
Photo; Netherlands National Archive, Posted: 28 Aug 2016
One of the worst things of the EU is the Common Agricultural Policy, which is harmful
for poorer people in Britain and abroad. Reform will make food cheaper for everyone.
Photo: Dreamy Pixel, Posted: 21 Aug 2016
The House of Lords is an ugly blot on British democracy. It should be elected.
Photo: ©Parliamentary copyright, Posted: 8 Aug 2016
John Joseph Boylan sets out the case for EEA membership to retain full access to the single market
but also to keep many of the advantages of Brexit.
Image: Roland Smith, Adam Smith Institute, Posted: 30 Jul 2016
British free trade doesn't just go back to the anti-corn law protests. It goes
all the way back to the Magna Carta.
Photo: Geof Sheppard, Posted: 19 Jul 2016
Polls show that Leave voters were more concerned with regaining sovereignty
than clamping down on immigration. That opens a new debate on what sort of Brexit we should have.
Posted: 27 Jun 2016
The final pre-election Campaign Calculus gives ten predictions.
Posted: 6 Jun 2017
Although he is one of Labour's most left-wing leaders, Corbyn
is more popular than some others. But he lags behind May in the
"best PM" question.
Posted: 29 May 2017
The SNP will lose some seats at the election, but
they are still dominant in Scotland.
Posted: 22 May 2017
Both UKIP and the Green party are standing aside in hundreds
of seats. But it benefits the Conservatives more than Labour.
Posted: 16 May 2017
The leftish parties are looking in a bad way. But a new party could rise from the ashes
of the Labour party — and become the main opposition.
Posted: 9 May 2017
This Campaign Calculus looks at why the polls went wrong in 2015, and whether the pollsters have fixed all the problems.
Posted: 1 May 2017
If the current polls are to be believed, then current public opinion is situated squarely in the heart of Conservative territory, and the Conservatives are looking forward to a substantial majority.
Posted: 26 April 2017
Final predictions for the 2015 general election.
Posted: 7 May 2015
Prediction that the SNP are going to win almost all the seats in Scotland.
Posted: 27 Apr 2015
Innovative graphic showing the likely migration of voters from party to party.
Posted: 20 Apr 2015
Polls are not accurate. This analysis of poll error over recent elections show they usually
underestimate the Conservative vote share.
Posted: 13 Apr 2015
A two-dimensional political map showing how far the Conservatives have to move opinion in
order to gain a majority.
Posted: 6 Apr 2015
Analysis of the prospects for a hung parliament.
Posted: 30 Mar 2015
Comparison of likely results under both the current first-past-the-post electoral system
and proportional representation.
Posted: 24 Mar 2015
Prediction that the Liberal Democrats are going to lose most of their seats at the election.
Posted: 16 Mar 2015
With two months to go, the polls suggest that Labour is going to be the largest party
Posted: 11 Mar 2015
Although Labour is polling well, their leader is unpopular with the British public. He may lose
Labour the election.
Posted: 3 Mar 2015
If UKIP do well, then that might hurt the Conservatives and enable a Labour/SNP coalition.
Posted: 24 Feb 2015
The SNP are predicted to win most of the seats in Scotland, which may change the
Posted: 17 Feb 2015
The Conservatives hope to gain from the rise of the Greens. They may be wrong.
Posted: 10 Feb 2015