Bedfordshire South West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bedfordshire South West: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Andrew Selous  (CON)
County/Area:Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:75,715
Turnout:70.7%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,85061.4%
LAB16,50330.8%
LIB2,8075.2%
Green9951.9%
OTH3760.7%
CON Majority16,34730.5%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bedfordshire South West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Bedfordshire South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Bedfordshire South West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bedfordshire Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bedfordshire Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bedfordshire MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BedfordElstow and Stewartby3,090Bedfordshire Mid1,23287530204200372,488
BedfordKempston Rural3,080Bedford1,16143112002700111,750
BedfordWilshamstead3,476Bedfordshire Mid1,30857015103400112,074
BedfordWootton3,819Bedfordshire Mid1,45773731009100142,609
Central BedfordshireAmpthill9,699Bedfordshire Mid4,8211,9063230319001207,489
Central BedfordshireArlesey5,108Bedfordshire Mid2,6131,28418507600594,217
Central BedfordshireAspley and Woburn3,681Bedfordshire South West2,06962291011600162,914
Central BedfordshireBarton-le-Clay3,974Bedfordshire Mid1,74592137305700543,150
Central BedfordshireCranfield and Marston Moretaine8,947Bedfordshire Mid4,6412,559310024800387,796
Central BedfordshireFlitwick10,075Bedfordshire Mid4,9092,643391035900448,346
Central BedfordshireHoughton Conquest and Haynes2,198Bedfordshire Mid1,1524585402700311,722
Central BedfordshireNorthill1,195Bedfordshire North East67123831016007963
Central BedfordshireShefford7,211Bedfordshire Mid3,9531,585250010700335,928
Central BedfordshireSilsoe and Shillington4,074Bedfordshire Mid1,72771010304900572,646
Central BedfordshireToddington7,440Bedfordshire South West3,4401,6937160110001146,073
Central BedfordshireWestoning, Flitton and Greenfield3,724Bedfordshire Mid2,03671986011700232,981
 Total80,791 38,93517,9513,79601,7950066963,146

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bedfordshire Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Bedfordshire South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bedfordshire South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bedfordshire South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Central BedfordshireCaddington2,845Luton South1,1523993803600131,638
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Central3,332Bedfordshire South West1,4348437502700142,393
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Icknield5,731Bedfordshire South West2,6441,37212604200234,207
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Manshead3,575Bedfordshire South West1,4621,2257702900332,826
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Northfields6,528Bedfordshire South West2,7611,920137011900374,974
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Watling7,402Bedfordshire South West3,6151,47413105200415,313
Central BedfordshireEaton Bray3,292Bedfordshire South West1,6105394902100192,238
Central BedfordshireHeath and Reach3,426Bedfordshire South West1,6434444701800122,164
Central BedfordshireHoughton Hall5,717Luton North and Houghton Regis2,0171,8303220950094,273
Central BedfordshireLeighton Buzzard North10,881Bedfordshire South West4,6082,480417016600207,691
Central BedfordshireLeighton Buzzard South9,303Bedfordshire South West3,8101,943375012900346,291
Central BedfordshireLinslade9,108Bedfordshire South West3,7541,948566016600136,447
Central BedfordshireParkside3,220Luton North and Houghton Regis1,3441,2418402800182,715
Central BedfordshireTithe Farm2,994Luton North and Houghton Regis1,1041,13518602200142,461
 Total77,354 32,95818,7932,63009500030055,631

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bedfordshire South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bedfordshire South West

The new seat of Bedfordshire South West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bedfordshire South West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Central BedfordshireAspley and Woburn3,867Bedfordshire Mid2,06962291011600162,914
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Central3,427Bedfordshire South West1,4348437502700142,393
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Icknield6,024Bedfordshire South West2,6441,37212604200234,207
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Manshead4,048Bedfordshire South West1,4621,2257702900332,826
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Northfields7,124Bedfordshire South West2,7611,920137011900374,974
Central BedfordshireDunstable-Watling7,608Bedfordshire South West3,6151,47413105200415,313
Central BedfordshireEaton Bray3,204Bedfordshire South West1,6105394902100192,238
Central BedfordshireHeath and Reach3,099Bedfordshire South West1,6434444701800122,164
Central BedfordshireLeighton Buzzard North11,013Bedfordshire South West4,6082,480417016600207,691
Central BedfordshireLeighton Buzzard South9,010Bedfordshire South West3,8101,943375012900346,291
Central BedfordshireLinslade9,232Bedfordshire South West3,7541,948566016600136,447
Central BedfordshireToddington8,059Bedfordshire Mid3,4401,6937160110001146,073
 Total75,715 32,85016,5032,80709950037653,531

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bedfordshire South West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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