New Seat Details - Bideford, Bude and Launceston

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bideford, Bude and Launceston been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	29,135	52.4%
LIB	14,969	26.9%
LAB	10,194	18.3%
Green	770	1.4%
OTH	546	1.0%
CON Majority	14,166	25.5%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Bideford, Bude and Launceston: Map

List of old seats forming part of Bideford, Bude and Launceston

Old seat: Cornwall North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cornwall North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cornwall North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Cornwall	Altarnun	2,536	Cornwall South East	1,134	252	455	0	0	0	0	5	1,846
Cornwall	Bodmin St Leonard	3,007	Bodmin and St Austell	1,066	495	1,152	0	0	0	0	9	2,722
Cornwall	Bodmin St Mary's	3,332	Bodmin and St Austell	1,272	500	1,241	0	0	0	0	24	3,037
Cornwall	Bodmin St Petroc	3,593	Bodmin and St Austell	1,314	321	1,184	0	0	0	0	23	2,842
Cornwall	Bude	5,905	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	2,009	575	2,102	0	0	0	0	22	4,708
Cornwall	Camelford	2,952	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,292	242	785	0	0	0	0	7	2,326
Cornwall	Grenville and Stratton	3,279	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,268	254	1,101	0	0	0	0	10	2,633
Cornwall	Lanivet and Blisland	3,056	Bodmin and St Austell	1,185	188	888	0	0	0	0	6	2,267
Cornwall	Launceston Central	2,500	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	956	398	975	0	0	0	0	8	2,337
Cornwall	Launceston North and North Petherwin	3,552	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,338	270	1,094	0	0	0	0	22	2,724
Cornwall	Launceston South	2,681	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	992	323	820	0	0	0	0	17	2,152
Cornwall	Padstow	3,063	Bodmin and St Austell	1,409	256	900	0	0	0	0	10	2,575
Cornwall	Poundstock	3,458	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,549	266	908	0	0	0	0	21	2,744
Cornwall	St Issey and St Tudy	3,305	Bodmin and St Austell	1,235	215	989	0	0	0	0	18	2,457
Cornwall	St Minver and St Endellion	2,394	Bodmin and St Austell	1,361	173	444	0	0	0	0	28	2,006
Cornwall	St Teath and St Breward	3,085	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,181	291	800	0	0	0	0	33	2,305
Cornwall	Stokeclimsland	2,947	Cornwall South East	1,449	234	603	0	0	0	0	25	2,311
Cornwall	Tintagel	3,019	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,108	222	993	0	0	0	0	7	2,330
Cornwall	Wadebridge East	3,022	Bodmin and St Austell	1,245	374	676	0	0	0	0	21	2,316
Cornwall	Wadebridge West	2,815	Bodmin and St Austell	1,475	301	524	0	0	0	0	7	2,307
	Total	63,501		25,838	6,150	18,634	0	0	0	0	323	50,945

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cornwall North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Devon West and Torridge

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon West and Torridge, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon West and Torridge				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Torridge	Appledore	2,216	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	978	354	305	0	60	0	0	26	1,723
Torridge	Bideford East	4,785	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,712	1,114	664	0	122	0	0	58	3,670
Torridge	Bideford North	4,277	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,500	1,087	805	0	117	0	0	52	3,561
Torridge	Bideford South	4,220	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,313	1,248	621	0	56	0	0	28	3,266
Torridge	Broadheath	1,371	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	759	144	120	0	13	0	0	8	1,044
Torridge	Clinton	1,251	Devon Central	540	179	170	0	32	0	0	19	940
Torridge	Clovelly Bay	1,224	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	606	195	163	0	17	0	0	7	988
Torridge	Coham Bridge	1,310	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	661	143	121	0	12	0	0	16	953
Torridge	Forest	1,420	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	709	163	149	0	28	0	0	13	1,062
Torridge	Hartland and Bradworthy	2,438	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,029	370	347	0	68	0	0	29	1,843
Torridge	Holsworthy	3,269	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,416	458	439	0	63	0	0	15	2,391
Torridge	Kenwith	1,346	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	777	129	127	0	13	0	0	6	1,052
Torridge	Monkleigh and Littleham	1,232	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	510	160	148	0	29	0	0	14	861
Torridge	Northam	4,361	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	1,975	805	519	0	56	0	0	54	3,409
Torridge	Orchard Hill	1,453	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	632	150	140	0	16	0	0	6	944
Torridge	Shebbear and Langtree	1,538	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	850	180	159	0	30	0	0	7	1,226
Torridge	Tamarside	1,383	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	635	204	177	0	15	0	0	17	1,048
Torridge	Three Moors	1,339	Devon Central	682	147	141	0	27	0	0	6	1,003
Torridge	Torrington	4,240	Devon Central	1,713	906	682	0	133	0	0	59	3,493
Torridge	Two Rivers	1,498	Devon Central	755	137	129	0	14	0	0	10	1,045
Torridge	Waldon	1,378	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	632	200	171	0	13	0	0	17	1,033
Torridge	Westward Ho!	1,813	Bideford, Bude and Launceston	748	249	216	0	42	0	0	26	1,281
Torridge	Winkleigh	1,699	Devon Central	744	218	248	0	36	0	0	26	1,272
West Devon	Bere Ferrers	2,847	Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge	1,172	487	373	0	70	0	0	37	2,139
West Devon	Bridestowe	2,249	Devon Central	1,015	295	288	0	56	0	0	28	1,682
West Devon	Buckland Monachorum	2,969	Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge	1,407	380	396	0	74	0	0	31	2,288
West Devon	Burrator	2,866	Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge	1,235	448	415	0	80	0	0	34	2,212
West Devon	Dartmoor	1,363	Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge	897	210	198	0	38	0	0	8	1,351
West Devon	Mary Tavy	1,305	Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge	585	168	164	0	15	0	0	16	948
West Devon	Milton Ford	1,454	Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge	801	171	158	0	15	0	0	14	1,159
West Devon	Tamarside	1,400	Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge	670	193	167	0	15	0	0	16	1,061
West Devon	Tavistock North	3,696	Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge	1,627	666	586	0	114	0	0	47	3,040
West Devon	Tavistock South East	2,946	Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge	1,361	398	366	0	67	0	0	28	2,220
West Devon	Tavistock South West	2,823	Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge	967	570	654	0	67	0	0	15	2,273
	Total	76,979		33,613	12,926	10,526	0	1,623	0	0	793	59,481

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon West and Torridge seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bideford, Bude and Launceston

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Bideford, Bude and Launceston
Cornwall	Bude	6,363	Cornwall North	2,009	575	2,102	0	0	0	0	22	4,708
Cornwall	Camelford	3,144	Cornwall North	1,292	242	785	0	0	0	0	7	2,326
Cornwall	Grenville and Stratton	3,560	Cornwall North	1,268	254	1,101	0	0	0	0	10	2,633
Cornwall	Launceston Central	3,159	Cornwall North	956	398	975	0	0	0	0	8	2,337
Cornwall	Launceston North and North Petherwin	3,682	Cornwall North	1,338	270	1,094	0	0	0	0	22	2,724
Cornwall	Launceston South	2,908	Cornwall North	992	323	820	0	0	0	0	17	2,152
Cornwall	Poundstock	3,707	Cornwall North	1,549	266	908	0	0	0	0	21	2,744
Cornwall	St Teath and St Breward	3,115	Cornwall North	1,181	291	800	0	0	0	0	33	2,305
Cornwall	Tintagel	3,148	Cornwall North	1,108	222	993	0	0	0	0	7	2,330
Torridge	Appledore	2,332	Devon West and Torridge	978	354	305	0	60	0	0	26	1,723
Torridge	Bideford East	4,969	Devon West and Torridge	1,712	1,114	664	0	122	0	0	58	3,670
Torridge	Bideford North	4,822	Devon West and Torridge	1,500	1,087	805	0	117	0	0	52	3,561
Torridge	Bideford South	4,421	Devon West and Torridge	1,313	1,248	621	0	56	0	0	28	3,266
Torridge	Broadheath	1,415	Devon West and Torridge	759	144	120	0	13	0	0	8	1,044
Torridge	Clovelly Bay	1,337	Devon West and Torridge	606	195	163	0	17	0	0	7	988
Torridge	Coham Bridge	1,290	Devon West and Torridge	661	143	121	0	12	0	0	16	953
Torridge	Forest	1,436	Devon West and Torridge	709	163	149	0	28	0	0	13	1,062
Torridge	Hartland and Bradworthy	2,494	Devon West and Torridge	1,029	370	347	0	68	0	0	29	1,843
Torridge	Holsworthy	3,237	Devon West and Torridge	1,416	458	439	0	63	0	0	15	2,391
Torridge	Kenwith	1,424	Devon West and Torridge	777	129	127	0	13	0	0	6	1,052
Torridge	Monkleigh and Littleham	1,165	Devon West and Torridge	510	160	148	0	29	0	0	14	861
Torridge	Northam	4,615	Devon West and Torridge	1,975	805	519	0	56	0	0	54	3,409
Torridge	Orchard Hill	1,278	Devon West and Torridge	632	150	140	0	16	0	0	6	944
Torridge	Shebbear and Langtree	1,659	Devon West and Torridge	850	180	159	0	30	0	0	7	1,226
Torridge	Tamarside	1,418	Devon West and Torridge	635	204	177	0	15	0	0	17	1,048
Torridge	Waldon	1,399	Devon West and Torridge	632	200	171	0	13	0	0	17	1,033
Torridge	Westward Ho!	1,734	Devon West and Torridge	748	249	216	0	42	0	0	26	1,281
	Total	75,231		29,135	10,194	14,969	0	770	0	0	546	55,614

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bideford, Bude and Launceston. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Geoffrey Cox (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	75,231
Turnout:	73.9%

Bideford, Bude and Launceston: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bideford, Bude and Launceston: Overview

Introduction