Bury St Edmunds: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bury St Edmunds: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Jo Churchill  (CON)
County/Area:Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:81,536
Turnout:70.8%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,37259.5%
LAB17,08529.6%
LIB3,1395.4%
Green2,3744.1%
OTH7811.4%
CON Majority17,28729.9%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bury St Edmunds been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Bury St Edmunds: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Bury St Edmunds

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bury St Edmunds

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bury St Edmunds, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bury St EdmundsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton1,925Bury St Edmunds8853264103100431,326
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash2,140Bury St Edmunds980339620630091,453
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton4,195Bury St Edmunds1,606885298016300222,974
Mid SuffolkGislingham2,183Bury St Edmunds9903323707000181,447
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden1,746Bury St Edmunds693366480760091,192
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market3,647Central Suffolk1,265798269013100202,483
Mid SuffolkOnehouse1,868Bury St Edmunds7253611260700091,291
Mid SuffolkRattlesden1,684Bury St Edmunds72427310802700121,144
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham3,652Bury St Edmunds1,625604115011700232,484
Mid SuffolkRingshall2,097Central Suffolk1,15747015809300491,927
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central3,577Bury St Edmunds1,365765155013400212,440
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North7,465Bury St Edmunds3,2841,547226027600415,374
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South3,708Bury St Edmunds1,235999285013700722,728
Mid SuffolkStowupland1,819Bury St Edmunds7523664306800121,241
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett3,481Bury St Edmunds1,487595193011200162,403
Mid SuffolkWoolpit1,619Bury St Edmunds743254310520091,089
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate3,270Bury St Edmunds1,445843244014100212,694
St EdmundsburyEastgate1,691Bury St Edmunds7195415603700111,364
St EdmundsburyFornham1,617Bury St Edmunds762282310240071,106
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton1,716Bury St Edmunds896241280250091,199
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham1,664Bury St Edmunds8013473602900141,227
St EdmundsburyMinden3,287Bury St Edmunds1,466838113014400202,581
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall5,182Bury St Edmunds2,9421,0281760104001004,350
St EdmundsburyNorthgate1,753Bury St Edmunds6766715203600111,446
St EdmundsburyPakenham1,907Bury St Edmunds1,3404253903800341,876
St EdmundsburyRisbygate3,248Bury St Edmunds1,3861,006132017700832,784
St EdmundsburyRougham1,768Bury St Edmunds8503523002900101,271
St EdmundsburySouthgate3,274Bury St Edmunds1,52067421106800182,491
St EdmundsburySt Olaves3,080Bury St Edmunds1,0331,22511406500672,504
St EdmundsburyWestgate3,214Bury St Edmunds1,44260010906100602,272
 Total83,477 36,79418,3533,56602,5980085062,161

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bury St Edmunds seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bury St Edmunds

The new seat of Bury St Edmunds is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bury St Edmunds
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton1,872Bury St Edmunds8853264103100431,326
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash2,053Bury St Edmunds980339620630091,453
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton4,200Bury St Edmunds1,606885298016300222,974
Mid SuffolkGislingham2,045Bury St Edmunds9903323707000181,447
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden1,683Bury St Edmunds693366480760091,192
Mid SuffolkOnehouse1,822Bury St Edmunds7253611260700091,291
Mid SuffolkRattlesden1,615Bury St Edmunds72427310802700121,144
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham3,507Bury St Edmunds1,625604115011700232,484
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central3,444Bury St Edmunds1,365765155013400212,440
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North7,585Bury St Edmunds3,2841,547226027600415,374
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South3,853Bury St Edmunds1,235999285013700722,728
Mid SuffolkStowupland1,752Bury St Edmunds7523664306800121,241
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett3,393Bury St Edmunds1,487595193011200162,403
Mid SuffolkWoolpit1,536Bury St Edmunds743254310520091,089
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate3,804Bury St Edmunds1,445843244014100212,694
St EdmundsburyEastgate1,926Bury St Edmunds7195415603700111,364
St EdmundsburyFornham1,561Bury St Edmunds762282310240071,106
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton1,693Bury St Edmunds896241280250091,199
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham1,733Bury St Edmunds8013473602900141,227
St EdmundsburyMinden3,646Bury St Edmunds1,466838113014400202,581
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall6,141Bury St Edmunds2,9421,0281760104001004,350
St EdmundsburyNorthgate2,039Bury St Edmunds6766715203600111,446
St EdmundsburyPakenham2,647Bury St Edmunds1,3404253903800341,876
St EdmundsburyRisbygate3,930Bury St Edmunds1,3861,006132017700832,784
St EdmundsburyRougham1,795Bury St Edmunds8503523002900101,271
St EdmundsburySouthgate3,518Bury St Edmunds1,52067421106800182,491
St EdmundsburySt Olaves3,535Bury St Edmunds1,0331,22511406500672,504
St EdmundsburyWestgate3,208Bury St Edmunds1,44260010906100602,272
 Total81,536 34,37217,0853,13902,3740078157,751

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bury St Edmunds. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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