Carmarthen: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Carmarthen: Overview

Projection: LAB seat

Implied MP at 2017:Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:75,392
Turnout:72.9%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB17,82432.4%
CON17,46031.8%
Plaid17,01330.9%
LIB1,3692.5%
UKIP1,3142.4%
LAB Majority3640.7%

See overview of other seats in Wales.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Carmarthen been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Carmarthen: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Carmarthen

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Carmarthen East and DinefwrTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireAbergwili1,799Carmarthen39928525320604001,345
CarmarthenshireAmmanford1,861Carmarthen28366242390543001,569
CarmarthenshireBetws1,730Carmarthen31855825310323001,255
CarmarthenshireCenarth1,570Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire33925732270632001,287
CarmarthenshireCilycwm1,145Carmarthen3332151722027700864
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Gaeo1,260Carmarthen2861661418043500919
CarmarthenshireGarnant1,486Carmarthen25362125310305001,235
CarmarthenshireGlanamman1,720Carmarthen27246227300569001,360
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,384Carmarthen62787351590756002,366
CarmarthenshireLlanddarog1,570Carmarthen36223822260512001,160
CarmarthenshireLlandeilo2,234Carmarthen49345455460656001,704
CarmarthenshireLlandovery1,980Carmarthen58042237410488001,568
CarmarthenshireLlandybie3,107Carmarthen60289559600661002,277
CarmarthenshireLlanegwad1,887Carmarthen40327224300676001,405
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel Aberbythych1,417Carmarthen28820820230522001,061
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel-ar-Arth2,098Carmarthen40534228370832001,644
CarmarthenshireLlangadog1,544Carmarthen35329834290393001,107
CarmarthenshireLlangeler2,546Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire51043532450945001,967
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor2,049Carmarthen34229933300635001,339
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn2,550Carmarthen40040744420874001,767
CarmarthenshireLlanybydder1,922Carmarthen44644134420656001,619
CarmarthenshireManordeilo and Salem1,709Carmarthen43731723330507001,317
CarmarthenshirePenygroes2,143Carmarthen36963748400577001,671
CarmarthenshirePontamman2,047Carmarthen33770344380451001,573
CarmarthenshireQuarter Bach2,108Carmarthen33362537400652001,687
CarmarthenshireSaron3,028Carmarthen57179648570922002,394
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael2,097Carmarthen43833340380722001,571
 Total53,991 10,77912,221920986016,1250041,031

The full details of these calculations are given on the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,606Carmarthen1,1181,08978680449002,802
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,537Carmarthen87379655550324002,103
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,196Carmarthen1,1591,10387700453002,872
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,444Carmarthen75754024380288001,647
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,085Carmarthen7456592630097001,557
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,582Carmarthen53337113260203001,146
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,621Carmarthen50435216250181001,078
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,300Carmarthen781596116320104001,629
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,659Carmarthen52035557270175001,134
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,664Carmarthen54043441290191001,235
PembrokeshireAmroth909Pembrokeshire Mid and South40422671302700677
PembrokeshireCarew1,106Pembrokeshire Mid and South443307121605300831
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,816Pembrokeshire Mid and South7155102028071001,344
PembrokeshireHundleton1,346Pembrokeshire Mid and South5393941121060001,025
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,563Pembrokeshire Mid and South6304781927052001,206
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,211Pembrokeshire Mid and South499274121605400855
PembrokeshireLamphey1,318Pembrokeshire Mid and South493341161904900918
PembrokeshireManorbier1,568Pembrokeshire Mid and South6054421624055001,142
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,510Pembrokeshire Mid and South456232101305300764
PembrokeshireNarberth1,483Pembrokeshire Mid and South5074183621061001,043
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,143Pembrokeshire Mid and South456303161605000841
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,007Pembrokeshire Mid and South329560151904700970
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion1,853Pembrokeshire Mid and South5259032327057001,535
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,216Pembrokeshire Mid and South378496222006300979
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,257Pembrokeshire Mid and South5701,08838300104001,830
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton962Pembrokeshire Mid and South371463132103800906
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,380Pembrokeshire Mid and South5474881623057001,131
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South946Pembrokeshire Mid and South393312151704600783
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,998Pembrokeshire Mid and South7994171725049001,307
PembrokeshirePenally1,188Pembrokeshire Mid and South542281132209300951
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,867Pembrokeshire Mid and South8704532128057001,429
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,574Pembrokeshire Mid and South48641433280178001,139
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,661Pembrokeshire Mid and South6835664231089001,411
 Total55,576 19,77016,66195690503,9280042,220

The full details of these calculations are given on the Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Carmarthen

The new seat of Carmarthen is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Carmarthen
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireAbergwili1,836Carmarthen East and Dinefwr39928525320604001,345
CarmarthenshireAmmanford2,139Carmarthen East and Dinefwr28366242390543001,569
CarmarthenshireBetws1,712Carmarthen East and Dinefwr31855825310323001,255
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,886Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South1,1181,08978680449002,802
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,915Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South87379655550324002,103
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,984Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South1,1591,10387700453002,872
CarmarthenshireCilycwm1,179Carmarthen East and Dinefwr3332151722027700864
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,284Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South75754024380288001,647
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Gaeo1,255Carmarthen East and Dinefwr2861661418043500919
CarmarthenshireGarnant1,685Carmarthen East and Dinefwr25362125310305001,235
CarmarthenshireGlanamman1,856Carmarthen East and Dinefwr27246227300569001,360
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,228Carmarthen East and Dinefwr62787351590756002,366
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,156Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South7456592630097001,557
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,589Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South53337113260203001,146
CarmarthenshireLlanddarog1,582Carmarthen East and Dinefwr36223822260512001,160
CarmarthenshireLlandeilo2,325Carmarthen East and Dinefwr49345455460656001,704
CarmarthenshireLlandovery2,139Carmarthen East and Dinefwr58042237410488001,568
CarmarthenshireLlandybie3,106Carmarthen East and Dinefwr60289559600661002,277
CarmarthenshireLlanegwad1,917Carmarthen East and Dinefwr40327224300676001,405
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel Aberbythych1,447Carmarthen East and Dinefwr28820820230522001,061
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel-ar-Arth2,243Carmarthen East and Dinefwr40534228370832001,644
CarmarthenshireLlangadog1,511Carmarthen East and Dinefwr35329834290393001,107
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor1,827Carmarthen East and Dinefwr34229933300635001,339
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn2,410Carmarthen East and Dinefwr40040744420874001,767
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,495Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South50435216250181001,078
CarmarthenshireLlanybydder2,210Carmarthen East and Dinefwr44644134420656001,619
CarmarthenshireManordeilo and Salem1,796Carmarthen East and Dinefwr43731723330507001,317
CarmarthenshirePenygroes2,278Carmarthen East and Dinefwr36963748400577001,671
CarmarthenshirePontamman2,146Carmarthen East and Dinefwr33770344380451001,573
CarmarthenshireQuarter Bach2,302Carmarthen East and Dinefwr33362537400652001,687
CarmarthenshireSaron3,267Carmarthen East and Dinefwr57179648570922002,394
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,259Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South781596116320104001,629
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael2,143Carmarthen East and Dinefwr43833340380722001,571
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,573Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South52035557270175001,134
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,712Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South54043441290191001,235
 Total75,392 17,46017,8241,3691,314017,0130054,980

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Carmarthen. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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