New Seat Details - Central Suffolk

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Central Suffolk been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	33,987	60.3%
LAB	16,530	29.3%
LIB	2,619	4.6%
Green	1,729	3.1%
UKIP	1,423	2.5%
OTH	71	0.1%
CON Majority	17,457	31.0%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Central Suffolk: Map

List of old seats forming part of Central Suffolk

Old seat: Bury St Edmunds

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bury St Edmunds, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bury St Edmunds				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Mid Suffolk	Bacton and Old Newton	1,925	Bury St Edmunds	885	326	41	0	31	0	0	43	1,326
Mid Suffolk	Badwell Ash	2,140	Bury St Edmunds	980	339	62	0	63	0	0	9	1,453
Mid Suffolk	Elmswell and Norton	4,195	Bury St Edmunds	1,606	885	298	0	163	0	0	22	2,974
Mid Suffolk	Gislingham	2,183	Bury St Edmunds	990	332	37	0	70	0	0	18	1,447
Mid Suffolk	Haughley and Wetherden	1,746	Bury St Edmunds	693	366	48	0	76	0	0	9	1,192
Mid Suffolk	Needham Market	3,647	Central Suffolk	1,265	798	269	0	131	0	0	20	2,483
Mid Suffolk	Onehouse	1,868	Bury St Edmunds	725	361	126	0	70	0	0	9	1,291
Mid Suffolk	Rattlesden	1,684	Bury St Edmunds	724	273	108	0	27	0	0	12	1,144
Mid Suffolk	Rickinghall and Walsham	3,652	Bury St Edmunds	1,625	604	115	0	117	0	0	23	2,484
Mid Suffolk	Ringshall	2,097	Central Suffolk	1,157	470	158	0	93	0	0	49	1,927
Mid Suffolk	Stowmarket Central	3,577	Bury St Edmunds	1,365	765	155	0	134	0	0	21	2,440
Mid Suffolk	Stowmarket North	7,465	Bury St Edmunds	3,284	1,547	226	0	276	0	0	41	5,374
Mid Suffolk	Stowmarket South	3,708	Bury St Edmunds	1,235	999	285	0	137	0	0	72	2,728
Mid Suffolk	Stowupland	1,819	Bury St Edmunds	752	366	43	0	68	0	0	12	1,241
Mid Suffolk	Thurston and Hessett	3,481	Bury St Edmunds	1,487	595	193	0	112	0	0	16	2,403
Mid Suffolk	Woolpit	1,619	Bury St Edmunds	743	254	31	0	52	0	0	9	1,089
St Edmundsbury	Abbeygate	3,270	Bury St Edmunds	1,445	843	244	0	141	0	0	21	2,694
St Edmundsbury	Eastgate	1,691	Bury St Edmunds	719	541	56	0	37	0	0	11	1,364
St Edmundsbury	Fornham	1,617	Bury St Edmunds	762	282	31	0	24	0	0	7	1,106
St Edmundsbury	Great Barton	1,716	Bury St Edmunds	896	241	28	0	25	0	0	9	1,199
St Edmundsbury	Horringer and Whelnetham	1,664	Bury St Edmunds	801	347	36	0	29	0	0	14	1,227
St Edmundsbury	Minden	3,287	Bury St Edmunds	1,466	838	113	0	144	0	0	20	2,581
St Edmundsbury	Moreton Hall	5,182	Bury St Edmunds	2,942	1,028	176	0	104	0	0	100	4,350
St Edmundsbury	Northgate	1,753	Bury St Edmunds	676	671	52	0	36	0	0	11	1,446
St Edmundsbury	Pakenham	1,907	Bury St Edmunds	1,340	425	39	0	38	0	0	34	1,876
St Edmundsbury	Risbygate	3,248	Bury St Edmunds	1,386	1,006	132	0	177	0	0	83	2,784
St Edmundsbury	Rougham	1,768	Bury St Edmunds	850	352	30	0	29	0	0	10	1,271
St Edmundsbury	Southgate	3,274	Bury St Edmunds	1,520	674	211	0	68	0	0	18	2,491
St Edmundsbury	St Olaves	3,080	Bury St Edmunds	1,033	1,225	114	0	65	0	0	67	2,504
St Edmundsbury	Westgate	3,214	Bury St Edmunds	1,442	600	109	0	61	0	0	60	2,272
	Total	83,477		36,794	18,353	3,566	0	2,598	0	0	850	62,161

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bury St Edmunds seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Suffolk Central and Ipswich North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk Central and Ipswich North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk Central and Ipswich North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ipswich	Castle Hill	5,582	Ipswich	2,245	1,436	222	191	136	0	0	0	4,230
Ipswich	Whitehouse	5,655	Central Suffolk	2,075	2,372	220	240	164	0	0	0	5,071
Ipswich	Whitton	5,588	Central Suffolk	2,120	2,099	233	88	85	0	0	0	4,625
Mid Suffolk	Barking and Somersham	1,785	Central Suffolk	755	317	79	61	21	0	0	0	1,233
Mid Suffolk	Bramford and Blakenham	3,406	Central Suffolk	1,330	608	163	115	43	0	0	0	2,259
Mid Suffolk	Claydon and Barham	3,604	Central Suffolk	1,731	624	167	47	109	0	0	0	2,678
Mid Suffolk	Debenham	1,866	Central Suffolk	781	404	55	57	56	0	0	0	1,353
Mid Suffolk	Eye	1,701	Central Suffolk	733	362	37	26	73	0	0	0	1,231
Mid Suffolk	Fressingfield	1,931	Central Suffolk	861	335	67	22	22	0	0	0	1,307
Mid Suffolk	Helmingham and Coddenham	1,799	Central Suffolk	951	266	66	19	22	0	0	0	1,324
Mid Suffolk	Hoxne	1,670	Central Suffolk	780	322	19	18	34	0	0	0	1,173
Mid Suffolk	Mendlesham	1,802	Central Suffolk	802	362	30	25	71	0	0	0	1,290
Mid Suffolk	Palgrave	1,806	Central Suffolk	906	316	25	23	51	0	0	0	1,321
Mid Suffolk	Stradbroke and Laxfield	2,125	Central Suffolk	1,020	322	32	26	61	0	0	0	1,461
Mid Suffolk	The Stonhams	1,801	Central Suffolk	903	285	72	21	53	0	0	0	1,334
Mid Suffolk	Wetheringsett	1,993	Central Suffolk	1,006	323	25	23	64	0	0	0	1,441
Mid Suffolk	Worlingworth	1,923	Central Suffolk	1,065	258	18	22	22	0	0	0	1,385
Suffolk Coastal	Framlingham	4,236	Central Suffolk	2,138	736	69	143	143	0	0	0	3,229
Suffolk Coastal	Fynn Valley	2,470	Central Suffolk	1,255	361	38	29	70	0	0	0	1,753
Suffolk Coastal	Grundisburgh	2,540	Central Suffolk	1,258	462	102	30	33	0	0	0	1,885
Suffolk Coastal	Hacheston	2,221	Central Suffolk	1,091	375	71	25	70	0	0	0	1,632
Suffolk Coastal	Kesgrave East	4,841	Central Suffolk	2,560	1,191	253	69	73	0	0	0	4,146
Suffolk Coastal	Kesgrave West	5,333	Central Suffolk	2,456	1,198	140	171	75	0	0	0	4,040
Suffolk Coastal	Tower	4,059	Central Suffolk	1,930	824	94	52	51	0	0	0	2,951
Suffolk Coastal	Wickham Market	2,083	Central Suffolk	877	463	95	71	29	0	0	0	1,535
Suffolk Coastal	Woodbridge	878	Suffolk Coastal	364	182	39	21	29	0	0	0	635
	Total	74,698		33,993	16,803	2,431	1,635	1,660	0	0	0	56,522

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk Central and Ipswich North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Suffolk Coastal

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk Coastal, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk Coastal				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Suffolk Coastal	Aldeburgh	3,944	Suffolk Coastal	1,859	694	254	0	55	0	0	96	2,958
Suffolk Coastal	Deben	2,048	Suffolk Coastal	965	478	223	0	81	0	0	15	1,762
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe East	4,014	Suffolk Coastal	1,868	799	128	0	50	0	0	25	2,870
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe North	4,433	Suffolk Coastal	1,771	1,424	252	0	64	0	0	29	3,540
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe South	4,611	Suffolk Coastal	1,967	1,210	237	0	149	0	0	30	3,593
Suffolk Coastal	Felixstowe West	4,555	Suffolk Coastal	1,872	1,666	268	0	68	0	0	31	3,905
Suffolk Coastal	Hacheston	231	Central Suffolk	117	42	10	0	8	0	0	1	178
Suffolk Coastal	Kirton	2,353	Suffolk Coastal	1,156	387	61	0	67	0	0	14	1,685
Suffolk Coastal	Leiston	4,469	Suffolk Coastal	1,717	1,381	240	0	135	0	0	125	3,598
Suffolk Coastal	Martlesham	3,968	Suffolk Coastal	1,748	739	309	0	58	0	0	21	2,875
Suffolk Coastal	Melton	4,637	Suffolk Coastal	2,304	938	310	0	163	0	0	42	3,757
Suffolk Coastal	Nacton and Purdis Farm	2,347	Suffolk Coastal	1,248	432	70	0	29	0	0	13	1,792
Suffolk Coastal	Orford and Eyke	2,278	Suffolk Coastal	1,089	427	134	0	69	0	0	15	1,734
Suffolk Coastal	Peasenhall and Yoxford	2,277	Suffolk Coastal	1,073	403	87	0	71	0	0	12	1,646
Suffolk Coastal	Rendlesham	2,123	Suffolk Coastal	1,097	550	74	0	30	0	0	14	1,765
Suffolk Coastal	Saxmundham	4,145	Suffolk Coastal	1,763	855	337	0	57	0	0	87	3,099
Suffolk Coastal	The Trimleys	4,243	Suffolk Coastal	1,967	1,053	190	0	55	0	0	25	3,290
Suffolk Coastal	Wenhaston and Westleton	2,177	Suffolk Coastal	979	450	150	0	31	0	0	30	1,640
Suffolk Coastal	Wickham Market	147	Central Suffolk	64	35	12	0	2	0	0	1	114
Suffolk Coastal	Woodbridge	6,309	Suffolk Coastal	2,730	1,401	372	0	216	0	0	42	4,761
Waveney	Blything	1,710	Suffolk Coastal	777	374	46	0	52	0	0	13	1,262
Waveney	Halesworth	3,958	Suffolk Coastal	1,470	948	129	0	133	0	0	99	2,779
Waveney	Southwold and Reydon	2,890	Suffolk Coastal	1,300	631	110	0	97	0	0	19	2,157
Waveney	Wrentham	1,811	Suffolk Coastal	811	383	45	0	60	0	0	10	1,309
	Total	75,678		33,712	17,700	4,048	0	1,800	0	0	809	58,069

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk Coastal seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Central Suffolk

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Central Suffolk
Ipswich	Whitehouse	7,009	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	2,075	2,372	220	240	164	0	0	0	5,071
Ipswich	Whitton	6,392	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	2,120	2,099	233	88	85	0	0	0	4,625
Mid Suffolk	Barking and Somersham	1,705	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	755	317	79	61	21	0	0	0	1,233
Mid Suffolk	Bramford and Blakenham	3,123	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	1,330	608	163	115	43	0	0	0	2,259
Mid Suffolk	Claydon and Barham	3,700	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	1,731	624	167	47	109	0	0	0	2,678
Mid Suffolk	Debenham	1,870	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	781	404	55	57	56	0	0	0	1,353
Mid Suffolk	Eye	1,701	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	733	362	37	26	73	0	0	0	1,231
Mid Suffolk	Fressingfield	1,807	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	861	335	67	22	22	0	0	0	1,307
Mid Suffolk	Helmingham and Coddenham	1,830	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	951	266	66	19	22	0	0	0	1,324
Mid Suffolk	Hoxne	1,622	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	780	322	19	18	34	0	0	0	1,173
Mid Suffolk	Mendlesham	1,783	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	802	362	30	25	71	0	0	0	1,290
Mid Suffolk	Needham Market	3,505	Bury St Edmunds	1,265	798	269	0	131	0	0	20	2,483
Mid Suffolk	Palgrave	1,826	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	906	316	25	23	51	0	0	0	1,321
Mid Suffolk	Ringshall	2,719	Bury St Edmunds	1,157	470	158	0	93	0	0	49	1,927
Mid Suffolk	Stradbroke and Laxfield	2,017	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	1,020	322	32	26	61	0	0	0	1,461
Mid Suffolk	The Stonhams	1,845	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	903	285	72	21	53	0	0	0	1,334
Mid Suffolk	Wetheringsett	1,993	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	1,006	323	25	23	64	0	0	0	1,441
Mid Suffolk	Worlingworth	1,912	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	1,065	258	18	22	22	0	0	0	1,385
Suffolk Coastal	Framlingham	4,462	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	2,138	736	69	143	143	0	0	0	3,229
Suffolk Coastal	Fynn Valley	2,423	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	1,255	361	38	29	70	0	0	0	1,753
Suffolk Coastal	Grundisburgh	2,605	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	1,258	462	102	30	33	0	0	0	1,885
Suffolk Coastal	Hacheston	2,255	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	1,091	375	71	25	70	0	0	0	1,632
Suffolk Coastal	Hacheston	243	Suffolk Coastal	117	42	10	0	8	0	0	1	178
Suffolk Coastal	Kesgrave East	5,730	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	2,560	1,191	253	69	73	0	0	0	4,146
Suffolk Coastal	Kesgrave West	5,583	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	2,456	1,198	140	171	75	0	0	0	4,040
Suffolk Coastal	Tower	4,079	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	1,930	824	94	52	51	0	0	0	2,951
Suffolk Coastal	Wickham Market	2,120	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	877	463	95	71	29	0	0	0	1,535
Suffolk Coastal	Wickham Market	155	Suffolk Coastal	64	35	12	0	2	0	0	1	114
	Total	78,014		33,987	16,530	2,619	1,423	1,729	0	0	71	56,359

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Central Suffolk. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Dan Poulter (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,014
Turnout:	72.2%

Central Suffolk: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Central Suffolk: Overview

Introduction