Edinburgh South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Edinburgh South: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Unknown (changed seat)  (SNP)
County/Area: Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate: 86,977
Turnout: 72.6%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SNP21,58934.2%
LAB18,14128.7%
CON15,22524.1%
LIB5,9619.4%
Green1,8803.0%
UKIP2590.4%
OTH470.1%
SNP Majority3,4485.5%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Edinburgh South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Edinburgh South constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017LABSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position14° Left23° Left
National Position39° Glo15° Glo
Social Position29° Lib13° Lib
TribeStrong Left
EU Leave %19%38%52%
British Identity34%27%29%
Good Health63%52%48%
UK Born81%93%87%
Good Education57%36%39%
Good Job70%49%51%
High SEC68%55%51%
Average Age43.048.648.3
ABC1 Class79%50%54%

Edinburgh South ranks #598 for "Leave", #506 for "Right", #598 for "National" and #599 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Edinburgh South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Edinburgh South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Edinburgh South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Edinburgh East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside2,589Edinburgh South464284174084777001,783
EdinburghCity Centre7,757Edinburgh East;
Edinburgh North and Leith
1,1791,02241902512,472005,343
EdinburghLeith Walk4,250Edinburgh East24992318701141,453002,926
EdinburghLeith5,182Edinburgh East33680427401442,011003,569
EdinburghCraigentinny / Duddingston18,640Edinburgh East1,4863,41083705586,5470012,838
EdinburghSouthside / Newington12,316Edinburgh South1,6641,71683203983,873008,483
EdinburghLiberton / Gilmerton175Edinburgh East15358055800121
EdinburghPortobello / Craigmillar18,516Edinburgh East1,1584,55555905095,9730012,754
 Total69,425 6,55112,7493,29002,06323,1640047,817

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Edinburgh South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghColinton / Fairmilehead5,843Edinburgh South1,2851,66429101271,024004,391
EdinburghFountainbridge / Craiglockhart2,155Edinburgh South224765134044452001,619
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside20,213Edinburgh South3,2816,8351,36104393,2730015,189
EdinburghSouthside / Newington12,503Edinburgh South1,3984,72679402642,213009,395
EdinburghLiberton / Gilmerton25,472Edinburgh East1,9749,7541,23904835,6890019,139
EdinburghPortobello / Craigmillar1Edinburgh East000000000
 Total66,187 8,16223,7443,81901,35712,6510049,733

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Edinburgh South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghPentland Hills16,176Livingston and Edinburgh Pentland3,2331,2151,0411412855,53302611,474
EdinburghDrum Brae / Gyle365Edinburgh West5929333612801259
EdinburghCorstorphine / Murrayfield683Edinburgh West144326261122901485
EdinburghSighthill / Gorgie23,839Edinburgh West;
Livingston and Edinburgh Pentland
2,3013,9711,3722074198,60003816,908
EdinburghColinton / Fairmilehead12,373Edinburgh South3,709491702941903,5740178,777
EdinburghFountainbridge / Craiglockhart15,693Edinburgh South2,4641,4741,3381362765,41702511,130
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside3,292Edinburgh South7361863352958986052,335
EdinburghCity Centre1,080Edinburgh North and Leith203818891936302765
 Total73,501 12,8497,4794,9716251,26424,830011552,133

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Edinburgh South

The new seat of Edinburgh South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Edinburgh South
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghColinton / Fairmilehead5,843Edinburgh South1,2851,66429101271,024004,391
EdinburghColinton / Fairmilehead12,373Edinburgh South West3,709491702941903,5740178,777
EdinburghFountainbridge / Craiglockhart2,155Edinburgh South224765134044452001,619
EdinburghFountainbridge / Craiglockhart15,693Edinburgh South West2,4641,4741,3381362765,41702511,130
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside2,589Edinburgh East464284174084777001,783
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside20,213Edinburgh South3,2816,8351,36104393,2730015,189
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside3,292Edinburgh South West7361863352958986052,335
EdinburghSouthside / Newington12,316Edinburgh East1,6641,71683203983,873008,483
EdinburghSouthside / Newington12,503Edinburgh South1,3984,72679402642,213009,395
 Total86,977 15,22518,1415,9612591,88021,58904763,102

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Edinburgh South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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