Fermanagh and South Tyrone: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

 Projection: SF seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Michelle Gildernew  (SF)
County/Area: Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 73,723
Turnout: 69.5%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SF22,15043.2%
UUP21,69942.3%
SDLP3,5526.9%
Alliance2,7165.3%
OTH7581.5%
DUP3750.7%
SF Majority4510.9%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency, the 'Northern Ireland' area and nation.

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat Northern IrelandAll UK
Party Winner 2019SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2017SFDUPCON
Party Winner 2015UUPDUPCON
EU Leave %41%44%52%
British Identity32%40%29%
Good Health49%48%48%
UK Born88%93%87%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job39%47%51%
High SEC54%57%51%
Average Age47.347.248.3
ABC1 Class37%46%53%

Fermanagh and South Tyrone ranks #494 for "Leave", out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Fermanagh and South Tyrone been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall529Newry and Armagh17629019014006370
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches389Upper Bann13021014010204271
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,212Fermanagh and South Tyrone9369607404120221,540
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,759Fermanagh and South Tyrone3888605906740181,225
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,956Fermanagh and South Tyrone6329806605470201,363
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,125Fermanagh and South Tyrone6409807206490221,481
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,523Fermanagh and South Tyrone3926005105430151,061
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,414Fermanagh and South Tyrone813121010506160271,682
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,971Fermanagh and South Tyrone56810006706190201,374
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,800Fermanagh and South Tyrone4069006006810181,255
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,504Fermanagh and South Tyrone2956905006180151,047
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,898Fermanagh and South Tyrone7939106303560191,322
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,260Fermanagh and South Tyrone59812208107490241,574
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,738Fermanagh and South Tyrone4648505905860181,212
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,374Fermanagh and South Tyrone74512007906870241,655
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,218Fermanagh and South Tyrone8547407505190221,544
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,246Fermanagh and South Tyrone7659707706030231,565
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea2,003Fermanagh and South Tyrone3799106708380201,395
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,129Fermanagh and South Tyrone5468407107610221,484
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,653Fermanagh and South Tyrone3187605506860171,152
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,261Fermanagh and South Tyrone701128011906010271,576
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,402Fermanagh and South Tyrone261630470592014977
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,759Fermanagh and South Tyrone5729507404640191,224
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,802Fermanagh and South Tyrone7209106003660181,255
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,311Fermanagh and South Tyrone64112107807470241,611
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,443Fermanagh and South Tyrone83911108306450251,703
Mid UlsterBallygawley2,028Fermanagh and South Tyrone47410206807490211,414
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,228Fermanagh and South Tyrone937166012809850332,249
Mid UlsterCaledon2,512Fermanagh and South Tyrone71212908407990261,750
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,657Fermanagh and South Tyrone4498605605470171,155
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,204Fermanagh and South Tyrone7999007405500221,535
Mid UlsterKillyman1,945Fermanagh and South Tyrone7087107204840191,354
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,720Fermanagh and South Tyrone870120012107560281,895
Mid UlsterMoy2,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone822140011707070271,813
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,506Fermanagh and South Tyrone85877010506810261,747
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,766Fermanagh and South Tyrone72514709809290281,927
 Total72,847 21,9263,44502,648021,988075050,757

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,580Ulster Mid7627126911808770231,634
Mid UlsterBallygawley418Fermanagh and South Tyrone17446722010904263
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,764Ulster Mid10824437713908550281,751
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,512Ulster Mid8624427112208440241,591
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield714Fermanagh and South Tyrone307114338016208452
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,537Ulster Mid10416749912706850261,608
Mid UlsterCoagh2,280Ulster Mid10319932912406650241,444
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,483Ulster Mid9225229112607870251,573
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,871Ulster Mid7829829312709970251,818
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,198Ulster Mid10915840012905720241,392
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,513Ulster Mid9925528914307800251,591
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,500Ulster Mid12817946915406260281,584
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,439Ulster Mid9423559112404770241,545
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,579Ulster Mid10725134813607650271,634
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,089Ulster Mid572142079207340181,322
Mid UlsterGlebe2,616Ulster Mid8332549912406020251,658
Mid UlsterKillyman425Fermanagh and South Tyrone20251122408404269
Mid UlsterKillymeal237Fermanagh and South Tyrone1217531704902150
Mid UlsterLissan2,511Ulster Mid10820165813204650261,590
Mid UlsterLoughry2,007Ulster Mid10512844012004560221,271
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane2,031Ulster Mid452051858107540161,286
Mid UlsterMaghera2,616Ulster Mid6720525211001,0000221,656
Mid UlsterOaklands2,158Ulster Mid9319827611606630221,368
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,666Ulster Mid10426530813808440281,687
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,178Ulster Mid9815252811704620231,380
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,367Ulster Mid572262229708770201,499
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,500Ulster Mid9716637912307930251,583
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,584Ulster Mid9730749813205780261,638
Mid UlsterTobermore2,496Ulster Mid10313760412405870251,580
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,558Ulster Mid8224555912005900241,620
Mid UlsterValley2,517Ulster Mid7419125611209380221,593
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,504Ulster Mid7930926111807960231,586
 Total70,448 2,6126,38410,9333,526020,473068844,616

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
Alliance
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,212Fermanagh and South Tyrone9369607404120221,540
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,759Fermanagh and South Tyrone3888605906740181,225
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,956Fermanagh and South Tyrone6329806605470201,363
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,125Fermanagh and South Tyrone6409807206490221,481
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,523Fermanagh and South Tyrone3926005105430151,061
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,414Fermanagh and South Tyrone813121010506160271,682
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,971Fermanagh and South Tyrone56810006706190201,374
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,800Fermanagh and South Tyrone4069006006810181,255
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,504Fermanagh and South Tyrone2956905006180151,047
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,898Fermanagh and South Tyrone7939106303560191,322
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,260Fermanagh and South Tyrone59812208107490241,574
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,738Fermanagh and South Tyrone4648505905860181,212
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,374Fermanagh and South Tyrone74512007906870241,655
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,218Fermanagh and South Tyrone8547407505190221,544
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,246Fermanagh and South Tyrone7659707706030231,565
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea2,003Fermanagh and South Tyrone3799106708380201,395
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,129Fermanagh and South Tyrone5468407107610221,484
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,653Fermanagh and South Tyrone3187605506860171,152
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,261Fermanagh and South Tyrone701128011906010271,576
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,402Fermanagh and South Tyrone261630470592014977
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,759Fermanagh and South Tyrone5729507404640191,224
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,802Fermanagh and South Tyrone7209106003660181,255
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,311Fermanagh and South Tyrone64112107807470241,611
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,443Fermanagh and South Tyrone83911108306450251,703
Mid UlsterBallygawley418Ulster Mid17446722010904263
Mid UlsterBallygawley2,028Fermanagh and South Tyrone47410206807490211,414
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,228Fermanagh and South Tyrone937166012809850332,249
Mid UlsterCaledon2,512Fermanagh and South Tyrone71212908407990261,750
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield714Ulster Mid307114338016208452
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,657Fermanagh and South Tyrone4498605605470171,155
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,204Fermanagh and South Tyrone7999007405500221,535
Mid UlsterKillyman425Ulster Mid20251122408404269
Mid UlsterKillyman1,945Fermanagh and South Tyrone7087107204840191,354
Mid UlsterKillymeal237Ulster Mid1217531704902150
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,720Fermanagh and South Tyrone870120012107560281,895
Mid UlsterMoy2,602Fermanagh and South Tyrone822140011707070271,813
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,506Fermanagh and South Tyrone85877010506810261,747
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,766Fermanagh and South Tyrone72514709809290281,927
 Total73,723 21,6993,5523752,716022,150075851,250

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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