Glasgow North East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Glasgow North East: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Anne McLaughlin  (SNP)
County/Area: Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate: 72,899
Turnout: 56.8%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SNP19,12246.2%
LAB16,30239.4%
CON4,32310.4%
LIB1,4073.4%
Green1770.4%
UKIP440.1%
SNP Majority2,8206.8%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Glasgow North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Glasgow North East constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017LABSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position29° Left23° Left
National Position14° Glo15° Glo
Social Position9° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %42%38%52%
British Identity21%27%29%
Good Health46%52%48%
UK Born89%93%88%
Good Education27%36%39%
Good Job41%49%51%
High SEC36%55%51%
Average Age45.048.748.5
ABC1 Class40%50%54%

Glasgow North East ranks #491 for "Leave", #588 for "Right", #514 for "National" and #516 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Glasgow North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Glasgow North East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Glasgow North East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Glasgow Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glasgow Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Glasgow CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowGovan6,633Glasgow Central;
Glasgow South West
3091,21215901322,031003,843
GlasgowPollokshields8,577Glasgow South West86683730002182,748004,969
GlasgowLangside216Glasgow South East133012056600126
GlasgowSouthside Central20,185Glasgow South East7994,15242903755,9380011,693
GlasgowCalton11,111Glasgow East4982,60722902182,885006,437
GlasgowAnderston / City22,442Glasgow Central1,2094,42482204796,0660013,000
GlasgowEast Centre66Glasgow North East415201160038
 Total69,230 3,69813,2771,95301,42819,7500040,106

The full details of these calculations are given on the Glasgow Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Glasgow East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glasgow East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Glasgow EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowCalton4,775Glasgow East361991115001,261002,728
GlasgowEast Centre5,861Glasgow East4751,203157001,513003,348
GlasgowShettleston20,885Glasgow East1,7844,085481005,5780011,928
GlasgowBaillieston24,830Glasgow East2,2324,144633007,1720014,181
North LanarkshireStrathkelvin480Lanarkshire North West5968140013400275
GlasgowNorth East10,550Glasgow North East7992,300227002,699006,025
 Total67,381 5,71012,7911,6270018,3570038,485

The full details of these calculations are given on the Glasgow East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Glasgow North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glasgow North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Glasgow NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowHillhead20,719Glasgow Central1,5283,4559891376276,3880013,124
GlasgowPartick West5,322Glasgow Central434894247331351,628003,371
GlasgowDrumchapel / Anniesland123Glasgow North West636302310078
GlasgowMaryhill / Kelvin21,781Glasgow Central;
Glasgow North West
1,3724,6329221053696,3970013,797
GlasgowCanal9,185Glasgow North East4652,364232441762,537005,818
 Total57,130 3,80511,3812,3933191,30916,9810036,188

The full details of these calculations are given on the Glasgow North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Glasgow North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glasgow North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Glasgow North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowCalton1,650Glasgow East95361280043200916
GlasgowAnderston / City483Glasgow North East3289160013100268
GlasgowMaryhill / Kelvin2Glasgow North West000001001
GlasgowCanal14,116Glasgow North East8342,773327003,907007,841
GlasgowSpringburn14,297Glasgow North East6923,376200003,673007,941
GlasgowEast Centre16,383Glasgow East;
Glasgow North East
1,0553,571309004,166009,101
East DunbartonshireBishopbriggs South0 000000000
GlasgowNorth East14,143Glasgow North East8493,193213003,601007,856
 Total61,074 3,55713,3631,0930015,9110033,924

The full details of these calculations are given on the Glasgow North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Glasgow North East

The new seat of Glasgow North East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Glasgow North East
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GlasgowAnderston / City483Glasgow North East3289160013100268
GlasgowCanal9,185Glasgow North4652,364232441762,537005,818
GlasgowCanal14,116Glasgow North East8342,773327003,907007,841
GlasgowEast Centre10,059Glasgow North East6482,192190002,558005,588
GlasgowEast Centre66Glasgow Central415201160038
GlasgowNorth East10,550Glasgow East7992,300227002,699006,025
GlasgowNorth East14,143Glasgow North East8493,193213003,601007,856
GlasgowSpringburn14,297Glasgow North East6923,376200003,673007,941
 Total72,899 4,32316,3021,4074417719,1220041,375

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Glasgow North East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (07-Jan-2020 16:36, Py3L, sc702)