Harlow: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Harlow: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Robert Halfon  (CON)
County/Area:Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:73,032
Turnout:66.6%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON26,90555.3%
LAB17,82436.7%
UKIP1,9073.9%
LIB1,1832.4%
Green7891.6%
OTH80.0%
CON Majority9,08118.7%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Harlow been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Harlow: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Harlow

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Brentwood and Ongar

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Brentwood and Ongar, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Brentwood and OngarTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrentwoodBrentwood North5,054Brentwood and Ongar1,9729445111516800103,656
BrentwoodBrentwood South4,204Brentwood and Ongar1,7611,093258127540033,296
BrentwoodBrentwood West5,096Brentwood and Ongar2,3741,00250382660034,030
BrentwoodBrizes and Doddinghurst4,648Brentwood and Ongar2,422570197134370063,366
BrentwoodHerongate, Ingrave and West Horndon2,970Brentwood and Ongar1,53434910190260092,109
BrentwoodHutton Central2,950Brentwood and Ongar1,55636816840270092,168
BrentwoodHutton East2,873Brentwood and Ongar1,36345216284300012,092
BrentwoodHutton North3,085Brentwood and Ongar1,58454018855360072,410
BrentwoodHutton South3,029Brentwood and Ongar1,6213489893270092,196
BrentwoodIngatestone, Fryerning and Mountnessing4,795Brentwood and Ongar2,341639238125490023,394
BrentwoodPilgrims Hatch4,497Brentwood and Ongar1,966760460145540023,387
BrentwoodShenfield4,187Brentwood and Ongar2,113479347102460043,091
BrentwoodSouth Weald1,437Brentwood and Ongar7821905651150041,098
BrentwoodTipps Cross3,115Brentwood and Ongar1,62334688882500112,181
BrentwoodWarley4,505Brentwood and Ongar1,987788429133580023,397
Epping ForestChipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash3,435Brentwood and Ongar1,51140320588880072,302
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village174Harlow8723521001119
Epping ForestHigh Ongar, Willingale and The Rodings1,832Brentwood and Ongar9951784322430031,284
Epping ForestLambourne1,561Brentwood and Ongar8401994744130011,144
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,661Harlow8631285419360031,103
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,659Harlow1,72547415399910042,546
Epping ForestPassingford1,884Brentwood and Ongar1,0541505821100011,294
Epping ForestShelley1,737Brentwood and Ongar7393875649150011,247
 Total72,388 34,81310,8104,4251,8449150010352,910

The full details of these calculations are given on the Brentwood and Ongar seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Harlow

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Harlow, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HarlowTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village1,709Harlow747268622100001,053
Epping ForestLower Nazeing3,245Harlow1,416406739130001,881
Epping ForestLower Sheering1,699Harlow662273102111000977
Epping ForestRoydon1,780Harlow80423362280001,073
HarlowBush Fair5,350Harlow1,7631,666106164580003,757
HarlowChurch Langley6,067Harlow2,8691,13790173550004,324
HarlowGreat Parndon4,899Harlow1,8101,14248135480003,183
HarlowHarlow Common5,299Harlow1,8031,49083155570003,588
HarlowLittle Parndon and Hare Street5,629Harlow1,7201,85576160610003,872
HarlowMark Hall4,879Harlow1,6191,548116151590003,493
HarlowNetteswell5,089Harlow1,6411,652110150620003,615
HarlowOld Harlow5,661Harlow2,175922104134530003,388
HarlowStaple Tye4,600Harlow1,6631,542100154560003,515
HarlowSumners and Kingsmoor4,974Harlow1,8711,34741152520003,463
HarlowToddbrook5,085Harlow1,6671,71868155580003,666
 Total65,965 24,23017,1999711,78766100044,848

The full details of these calculations are given on the Harlow seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Harlow

The new seat of Harlow is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Harlow
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village169Brentwood and Ongar8723521001119
Epping ForestHastingwood, Matching and Sheering Village1,590Harlow747268622100001,053
Epping ForestLower Nazeing2,841Harlow1,416406739130001,881
Epping ForestLower Sheering1,474Harlow662273102111000977
Epping ForestMoreton and Fyfield1,561Brentwood and Ongar8631285419360031,103
Epping ForestNorth Weald Bassett3,605Brentwood and Ongar1,72547415399910042,546
Epping ForestRoydon1,620Harlow80423362280001,073
HarlowBush Fair5,670Harlow1,7631,666106164580003,757
HarlowChurch Langley6,527Harlow2,8691,13790173550004,324
HarlowGreat Parndon4,804Harlow1,8101,14248135480003,183
HarlowHarlow Common5,416Harlow1,8031,49083155570003,588
HarlowLittle Parndon and Hare Street5,845Harlow1,7201,85576160610003,872
HarlowMark Hall5,273Harlow1,6191,548116151590003,493
HarlowNetteswell5,456Harlow1,6411,652110150620003,615
HarlowOld Harlow5,113Harlow2,175922104134530003,388
HarlowStaple Tye5,307Harlow1,6631,542100154560003,515
HarlowSumners and Kingsmoor5,226Harlow1,8711,34741152520003,463
HarlowToddbrook5,535Harlow1,6671,71868155580003,666
 Total73,032 26,90517,8241,1831,90778900848,616

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Harlow. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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