Huntingdon and St Neots: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Huntingdon and St Neots: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Jonathan Djanogly  (CON)
County/Area:Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:80,842
Turnout:70.8%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,09454.3%
LAB17,96431.4%
LIB4,9918.7%
UKIP2,1403.7%
Green1,0701.9%
CON Majority13,13022.9%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Huntingdon and St Neots been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Huntingdon and St Neots: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Huntingdon and St Neots

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cambridgeshire North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireEarith4,723Cambridgeshire South East2,114710132115410003,112
HuntingdonshireEllington2,414Cambridgeshire North West1,06733415360160001,630
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth2,109Cambridgeshire North West9523034253150001,365
HuntingdonshireRamsey6,258Cambridgeshire North West2,8581,150159186510004,404
HuntingdonshireSawtry5,144Cambridgeshire North West2,163848138152420003,343
HuntingdonshireSomersham4,547Cambridgeshire North West2,031719128118390003,035
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East14Huntingdon and St Neots5311000010
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South2Huntingdon and St Neots100000001
HuntingdonshireStilton2,342Cambridgeshire North West1,0713775961190001,587
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys2,418Cambridgeshire North West1,16537714663170001,768
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury4,786Cambridgeshire North West2,018754235132330003,172
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet8,021Cambridgeshire North West3,3541,737250240670005,648
PeterboroughBarnack2,471Cambridgeshire North West1,0393184452170001,470
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston6,984Peterborough2,8652,3672511401890005,812
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering4,901Cambridgeshire North West2,428939133169370003,706
PeterboroughNorthborough2,198Cambridgeshire North West9382945153370001,373
PeterboroughOrton Longueville6,180Cambridgeshire North West2,2922,3042272391540005,216
PeterboroughOrton Waterville6,321Cambridgeshire North West2,4791,2751941751220004,245
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton8,971Cambridgeshire North West3,6102,3525652742010007,002
PeterboroughStanground Central7,057Cambridgeshire North West2,1941,8002001981170004,509
PeterboroughStanground East2,138Cambridgeshire North West8815555938410001,574
 Total89,999 37,52519,5163,1672,5191,25500063,982

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cambridgeshire North West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Huntingdon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Huntingdon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HuntingdonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireAlconbury and The Stukeleys2,532Huntingdon and St Neots98550321170200001,789
HuntingdonshireBrampton4,460Huntingdon and St Neots2,1091,036518154540003,871
HuntingdonshireBuckden2,616Huntingdon and St Neots1,0385178786270001,755
HuntingdonshireEllington3Cambridgeshire North West110000002
HuntingdonshireFenstanton2,338Huntingdon and St Neots96047213858220001,650
HuntingdonshireGodmanchester4,818Huntingdon and St Neots1,6701,171519152530003,565
HuntingdonshireGransden and The Offords3,593Cambridgeshire South1,8254789943250002,470
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon East6,686Huntingdon and St Neots2,3971,715690211710005,084
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon North3,510Huntingdon and St Neots1,2731,796291154450003,559
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon West4,772Huntingdon and St Neots2,1611,308300149540003,972
HuntingdonshireKimbolton and Staughton2,485Huntingdon and St Neots1,2723586858200001,776
HuntingdonshireLittle Paxton3,036Huntingdon and St Neots1,22240114037220001,822
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East4,748Huntingdon and St Neots1,9161,266319162580003,721
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South5,060Huntingdon and St Neots1,9031,139310137540003,543
HuntingdonshireSt Ives West2,363Huntingdon and St Neots74948120364220001,519
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Ford5,212Huntingdon and St Neots2,291960191134470003,623
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Socon4,098Huntingdon and St Neots1,789860169681460003,032
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eynesbury7,503Huntingdon and St Neots2,8961,8583212402530005,568
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Priory Park6,495Huntingdon and St Neots2,2881,36936591600004,173
HuntingdonshireThe Hemingfords4,967Huntingdon and St Neots2,169751150114420003,226
 Total81,295 32,91418,4405,0892,1821,09500059,720

The full details of these calculations are given on the Huntingdon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Huntingdon and St Neots

The new seat of Huntingdon and St Neots is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Huntingdon and St Neots
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireAlconbury and The Stukeleys2,525Huntingdon98550321170200001,789
HuntingdonshireBrampton5,466Huntingdon2,1091,036518154540003,871
HuntingdonshireBuckden2,477Huntingdon1,0385178786270001,755
HuntingdonshireFenstanton2,330Huntingdon96047213858220001,650
HuntingdonshireGodmanchester5,034Huntingdon1,6701,171519152530003,565
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon East7,178Huntingdon2,3971,715690211710005,084
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon North5,026Huntingdon1,2731,796291154450003,559
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon West5,608Huntingdon2,1611,308300149540003,972
HuntingdonshireKimbolton and Staughton2,507Huntingdon1,2723586858200001,776
HuntingdonshireLittle Paxton2,572Huntingdon1,22240114037220001,822
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East15Cambridgeshire North West5311000010
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East5,254Huntingdon1,9161,266319162580003,721
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South2Cambridgeshire North West100000001
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South5,003Huntingdon1,9031,139310137540003,543
HuntingdonshireSt Ives West2,144Huntingdon74948120364220001,519
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Ford5,114Huntingdon2,291960191134470003,623
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Socon4,281Huntingdon1,789860169681460003,032
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eynesbury7,862Huntingdon2,8961,8583212402530005,568
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Priory Park5,891Huntingdon2,2881,36936591600004,173
HuntingdonshireThe Hemingfords4,553Huntingdon2,169751150114420003,226
 Total80,842 31,09417,9644,9912,1401,07000057,259

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Huntingdon and St Neots. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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