Hyndburn: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Hyndburn: Overview

Projection: LAB seat

Implied MP at 2017:Graham Jones  (LAB)
County/Area:Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:77,715
Turnout:61.9%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB25,42652.8%
CON18,53938.5%
UKIP2,2604.7%
LIB1,7593.7%
Green1290.3%
LAB Majority6,88714.3%

See overview of other seats in North West.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Hyndburn been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Hyndburn: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Hyndburn

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Burnley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Burnley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BurnleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BurnleyBank Hall3,971Burnley6931,485344173190002,714
BurnleyBriercliffe4,337Burnley916919599201500002,685
BurnleyBrunshaw4,669Burnley8341,523354222220002,955
BurnleyCliviger with Worsthorne4,209Burnley1,162676344167170002,366
BurnleyCoal Clough with Deerplay3,892Burnley752918469170140002,323
BurnleyDaneshouse with Stoneyholme3,685Burnley4222,03221863170002,752
BurnleyGannow4,150Burnley7521,11858099570002,606
BurnleyGawthorpe4,417Hyndburn8821,483334106200002,825
BurnleyHapton with Park4,489Hyndburn1,0011,148332199520002,732
BurnleyLanehead4,416Burnley8211,298342185180002,664
BurnleyQueensgate3,887Burnley6161,40449890220002,630
BurnleyRosegrove with Lowerhouse4,456Hyndburn9291,470377229570003,062
BurnleyRosehill with Burnley Wood4,293Burnley7701,158509193570002,687
BurnleyTrinity3,682Burnley6621,292347175210002,497
BurnleyWhittlefield with Ightenhill4,675Burnley1,269909401200180002,797
 Total63,228 12,48118,8336,0482,47246100040,295

The full details of these calculations are given on the Burnley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hyndburn

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hyndburn, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HyndburnTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HyndburnAltham3,982Hyndburn1,0441,4705312300002,690
HyndburnBarnfield3,233Hyndburn8791,199419500002,214
HyndburnBaxenden3,333Hyndburn1,021785458600001,937
HyndburnCentral3,596Hyndburn7272,106298000002,942
HyndburnChurch3,260Hyndburn6371,537329800002,304
HyndburnClayton-le-Moors3,547Hyndburn1,0141,1454410300002,306
HyndburnHuncoat3,569Hyndburn9211,057399700002,114
HyndburnImmanuel3,508Hyndburn1,1181,0004510300002,266
HyndburnMilnshaw3,485Hyndburn7511,251459300002,140
HyndburnNetherton3,239Hyndburn9311,147399800002,215
HyndburnOverton4,964Hyndburn1,2441,6096215500003,070
HyndburnPeel2,999Hyndburn6441,4764510000002,265
HyndburnRishton5,093Hyndburn1,3811,6565415100003,242
HyndburnSpring Hill3,474Hyndburn8481,589329900002,568
HyndburnSt Andrew's3,357Hyndburn1,049932459500002,121
HyndburnSt Oswald's5,076Hyndburn1,5181,3666615000003,100
RossendaleGreenfield4,325Rossendale and Darwen1,4611,1554911300002,778
RossendaleWorsley4,053Rossendale and Darwen1,1151,6415811600002,930
 Total68,093 18,30324,1218231,955000045,202

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hyndburn seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Hyndburn

The new seat of Hyndburn is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Hyndburn
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BurnleyGawthorpe4,535Burnley8821,483334106200002,825
BurnleyHapton with Park4,389Burnley1,0011,148332199520002,732
BurnleyRosegrove with Lowerhouse4,917Burnley9291,470377229570003,062
HyndburnAltham4,350Hyndburn1,0441,4705312300002,690
HyndburnBarnfield3,580Hyndburn8791,199419500002,214
HyndburnBaxenden3,133Hyndburn1,021785458600001,937
HyndburnCentral4,756Hyndburn7272,106298000002,942
HyndburnChurch3,727Hyndburn6371,537329800002,304
HyndburnClayton-le-Moors3,730Hyndburn1,0141,1454410300002,306
HyndburnHuncoat3,419Hyndburn9211,057399700002,114
HyndburnImmanuel3,664Hyndburn1,1181,0004510300002,266
HyndburnMilnshaw3,461Hyndburn7511,251459300002,140
HyndburnNetherton3,582Hyndburn9311,147399800002,215
HyndburnOverton4,965Hyndburn1,2441,6096215500003,070
HyndburnPeel3,662Hyndburn6441,4764510000002,265
HyndburnRishton5,245Hyndburn1,3811,6565415100003,242
HyndburnSpring Hill4,155Hyndburn8481,589329900002,568
HyndburnSt Andrew's3,430Hyndburn1,049932459500002,121
HyndburnSt Oswald's5,015Hyndburn1,5181,3666615000003,100
 Total77,715 18,53925,4261,7592,26012900048,113

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Hyndburn. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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