New Seat Details

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ipswich been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	25,659	46.3%
CON	25,640	46.3%
UKIP	1,563	2.8%
LIB	1,410	2.5%
Green	976	1.8%
OTH	120	0.2%
LAB Majority	19	0.0%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Ipswich: Map

List of old seats forming part of Ipswich

Old seat: Ipswich

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ipswich, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ipswich				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ipswich	Alexandra	5,618	Ipswich	1,870	2,344	149	66	90	0	0	21	4,540
Ipswich	Bixley	5,434	Ipswich	2,004	1,070	79	100	49	0	0	4	3,306
Ipswich	Bridge	5,223	Ipswich	1,704	2,057	87	129	66	0	0	9	4,052
Ipswich	Gainsborough	5,747	Ipswich	1,669	2,199	45	125	62	0	0	6	4,106
Ipswich	Gipping	5,191	Ipswich	1,621	2,238	73	127	67	0	0	7	4,133
Ipswich	Holywells	5,040	Ipswich	1,901	1,508	92	105	60	0	0	6	3,672
Ipswich	Priory Heath	5,796	Ipswich	1,819	2,145	69	122	60	0	0	5	4,220
Ipswich	Rushmere	5,862	Ipswich	1,861	1,731	125	112	67	0	0	5	3,901
Ipswich	Sprites	5,003	Ipswich	1,428	1,517	50	96	40	0	0	4	3,135
Ipswich	St John's	6,054	Ipswich	2,010	1,966	116	126	72	0	0	6	4,296
Ipswich	St Margaret's	5,912	Ipswich	2,105	1,324	139	50	74	0	0	5	3,697
Ipswich	Stoke Park	4,910	Ipswich	1,640	1,604	65	58	49	0	0	7	3,423
Ipswich	Westgate	4,912	Ipswich	1,763	2,520	99	156	84	0	0	35	4,657
	Total	70,702		23,395	24,223	1,188	1,372	840	0	0	120	51,138

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ipswich seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Suffolk Central and Ipswich North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Suffolk Central and Ipswich North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Suffolk Central and Ipswich North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ipswich	Castle Hill	5,582	Ipswich	2,245	1,436	222	191	136	0	0	0	4,230
Ipswich	Whitehouse	5,655	Central Suffolk	2,075	2,372	220	240	164	0	0	0	5,071
Ipswich	Whitton	5,588	Central Suffolk	2,120	2,099	233	88	85	0	0	0	4,625
Mid Suffolk	Barking and Somersham	1,785	Central Suffolk	755	317	79	61	21	0	0	0	1,233
Mid Suffolk	Bramford and Blakenham	3,406	Central Suffolk	1,330	608	163	115	43	0	0	0	2,259
Mid Suffolk	Claydon and Barham	3,604	Central Suffolk	1,731	624	167	47	109	0	0	0	2,678
Mid Suffolk	Debenham	1,866	Central Suffolk	781	404	55	57	56	0	0	0	1,353
Mid Suffolk	Eye	1,701	Central Suffolk	733	362	37	26	73	0	0	0	1,231
Mid Suffolk	Fressingfield	1,931	Central Suffolk	861	335	67	22	22	0	0	0	1,307
Mid Suffolk	Helmingham and Coddenham	1,799	Central Suffolk	951	266	66	19	22	0	0	0	1,324
Mid Suffolk	Hoxne	1,670	Central Suffolk	780	322	19	18	34	0	0	0	1,173
Mid Suffolk	Mendlesham	1,802	Central Suffolk	802	362	30	25	71	0	0	0	1,290
Mid Suffolk	Palgrave	1,806	Central Suffolk	906	316	25	23	51	0	0	0	1,321
Mid Suffolk	Stradbroke and Laxfield	2,125	Central Suffolk	1,020	322	32	26	61	0	0	0	1,461
Mid Suffolk	The Stonhams	1,801	Central Suffolk	903	285	72	21	53	0	0	0	1,334
Mid Suffolk	Wetheringsett	1,993	Central Suffolk	1,006	323	25	23	64	0	0	0	1,441
Mid Suffolk	Worlingworth	1,923	Central Suffolk	1,065	258	18	22	22	0	0	0	1,385
Suffolk Coastal	Framlingham	4,236	Central Suffolk	2,138	736	69	143	143	0	0	0	3,229
Suffolk Coastal	Fynn Valley	2,470	Central Suffolk	1,255	361	38	29	70	0	0	0	1,753
Suffolk Coastal	Grundisburgh	2,540	Central Suffolk	1,258	462	102	30	33	0	0	0	1,885
Suffolk Coastal	Hacheston	2,221	Central Suffolk	1,091	375	71	25	70	0	0	0	1,632
Suffolk Coastal	Kesgrave East	4,841	Central Suffolk	2,560	1,191	253	69	73	0	0	0	4,146
Suffolk Coastal	Kesgrave West	5,333	Central Suffolk	2,456	1,198	140	171	75	0	0	0	4,040
Suffolk Coastal	Tower	4,059	Central Suffolk	1,930	824	94	52	51	0	0	0	2,951
Suffolk Coastal	Wickham Market	2,083	Central Suffolk	877	463	95	71	29	0	0	0	1,535
Suffolk Coastal	Woodbridge	878	Suffolk Coastal	364	182	39	21	29	0	0	0	635
	Total	74,698		33,993	16,803	2,431	1,635	1,660	0	0	0	56,522

The full details of these calculations are given on the Suffolk Central and Ipswich North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ipswich

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Ipswich
Ipswich	Alexandra	6,640	Ipswich	1,870	2,344	149	66	90	0	0	21	4,540
Ipswich	Bixley	4,835	Ipswich	2,004	1,070	79	100	49	0	0	4	3,306
Ipswich	Bridge	5,927	Ipswich	1,704	2,057	87	129	66	0	0	9	4,052
Ipswich	Castle Hill	5,846	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	2,245	1,436	222	191	136	0	0	0	4,230
Ipswich	Gainsborough	6,007	Ipswich	1,669	2,199	45	125	62	0	0	6	4,106
Ipswich	Gipping	6,046	Ipswich	1,621	2,238	73	127	67	0	0	7	4,133
Ipswich	Holywells	5,372	Ipswich	1,901	1,508	92	105	60	0	0	6	3,672
Ipswich	Priory Heath	6,172	Ipswich	1,819	2,145	69	122	60	0	0	5	4,220
Ipswich	Rushmere	5,706	Ipswich	1,861	1,731	125	112	67	0	0	5	3,901
Ipswich	Sprites	4,586	Ipswich	1,428	1,517	50	96	40	0	0	4	3,135
Ipswich	St John's	6,282	Ipswich	2,010	1,966	116	126	72	0	0	6	4,296
Ipswich	St Margaret's	5,407	Ipswich	2,105	1,324	139	50	74	0	0	5	3,697
Ipswich	Stoke Park	5,006	Ipswich	1,640	1,604	65	58	49	0	0	7	3,423
Ipswich	Westgate	6,812	Ipswich	1,763	2,520	99	156	84	0	0	35	4,657
	Total	80,644		25,640	25,659	1,410	1,563	976	0	0	120	55,368

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ipswich. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Sandy Martin (LAB)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	80,644
Turnout:	68.7%

Ipswich: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ipswich: Overview

Introduction