New Seat Details - Lancashire North

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lancashire North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	32,435	62.0%
LAB	17,181	32.8%
LIB	1,744	3.3%
Green	825	1.6%
UKIP	133	0.3%
CON Majority	15,254	29.2%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Lancashire North: Map

List of old seats forming part of Lancashire North

Old seat: Lancaster and Fleetwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lancaster and Fleetwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lancaster and Fleetwood				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Lancaster	Bulk	4,592	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,138	2,497	121	0	112	0	0	0	3,868
Lancaster	Castle	3,455	Lancaster and Morecambe	876	1,521	125	0	87	0	0	0	2,609
Lancaster	Ellel	3,276	Lancashire North	1,424	1,207	33	0	54	0	0	0	2,718
Lancaster	John O'Gaunt	4,796	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,293	2,273	165	0	96	0	0	0	3,827
Lancaster	Lower Lune Valley	3,525	Lancashire North	1,274	952	89	0	40	0	0	0	2,355
Lancaster	Marsh	3,276	Lancaster and Morecambe	784	1,494	98	0	73	0	0	0	2,449
Lancaster	Scotforth East	3,221	Lancaster and Morecambe	897	1,251	108	0	45	0	0	0	2,301
Lancaster	Scotforth West	4,868	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,472	2,333	160	0	108	0	0	0	4,073
Lancaster	University and Scotforth Rural	2,065	Lancashire North	1,234	1,337	103	0	52	0	0	0	2,726
Wyre	Mount	3,596	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	914	1,544	27	0	17	0	0	0	2,502
Wyre	Park	3,259	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	972	1,661	23	0	18	0	0	0	2,674
Wyre	Pharos	3,166	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	903	1,813	32	0	25	0	0	0	2,773
Wyre	Pilling	1,907	Lancashire North	760	446	6	0	6	0	0	0	1,218
Wyre	Preesall	4,615	Lancashire North	1,755	1,225	19	0	18	0	0	0	3,017
Wyre	Rossall	4,260	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	1,363	1,951	26	0	23	0	0	0	3,363
Wyre	Warren	3,320	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	953	1,460	30	0	17	0	0	0	2,460
Wyre	Wyresdale	1,592	Lancashire North	670	378	7	0	7	0	0	0	1,062
	Total	58,789		18,682	25,343	1,172	0	798	0	0	0	45,995

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lancaster and Fleetwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Morecambe and Lunesdale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Morecambe and Lunesdale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Morecambe and Lunesdale				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Lancaster	Bare	5,392	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,826	1,288	208	140	49	0	0	0	3,511
Lancaster	Bolton and Slyne	5,814	Lancaster and Morecambe	2,489	1,049	169	62	40	0	0	0	3,809
Lancaster	Carnforth and Millhead	4,446	Lancashire North	1,699	1,272	107	53	33	0	0	0	3,164
Lancaster	Halton-with-Aughton	1,947	Lancashire North	669	437	46	19	18	0	0	0	1,189
Lancaster	Harbour	4,759	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,543	2,201	108	150	50	0	0	0	4,052
Lancaster	Heysham Central	3,268	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,020	1,198	65	45	13	0	0	0	2,341
Lancaster	Heysham North	3,058	Lancaster and Morecambe	974	1,300	79	98	33	0	0	0	2,484
Lancaster	Heysham South	4,790	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,669	1,470	95	127	14	0	0	0	3,375
Lancaster	Kellet	1,639	Lancashire North	792	260	23	14	10	0	0	0	1,099
Lancaster	Overton	1,672	Lancaster and Morecambe	709	420	34	23	13	0	0	0	1,199
Lancaster	Poulton	3,255	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,207	1,436	87	117	39	0	0	0	2,886
Lancaster	Silverdale	1,616	Lancashire North	554	281	99	13	14	0	0	0	961
Lancaster	Skerton East	4,520	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,167	2,044	127	62	40	0	0	0	3,440
Lancaster	Skerton West	4,879	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,289	2,059	135	130	39	0	0	0	3,652
Lancaster	Torrisholme	3,535	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,119	900	150	103	30	0	0	0	2,302
Lancaster	Upper Lune Valley	1,878	Lancashire North	897	289	24	15	11	0	0	0	1,236
Lancaster	Warton	1,604	Lancashire North	672	333	30	16	12	0	0	0	1,063
Lancaster	Westgate	5,211	Lancaster and Morecambe	1,478	2,137	112	146	21	0	0	0	3,894
	Total	63,283		21,773	20,374	1,698	1,333	479	0	0	0	45,657

The full details of these calculations are given on the Morecambe and Lunesdale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Preston

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Preston, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Preston				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Preston	Ashton	2,993	Preston	657	890	94	43	19	0	0	0	1,703
Preston	Brookfield	5,003	Preston	721	1,748	62	152	25	0	0	0	2,708
Preston	Deepdale	3,595	Preston	318	1,911	43	36	23	0	0	0	2,331
Preston	Fishwick	3,260	Preston	427	1,650	34	43	8	0	0	0	2,162
Preston	Ingol	5,038	Preston	833	1,559	209	160	11	0	0	0	2,772
Preston	Larches	5,410	Preston	871	1,635	202	76	27	0	0	0	2,811
Preston	Moor Park	2,830	Preston	449	1,288	60	98	28	0	0	0	1,923
Preston	Preston Rural East	192	Lancashire North	64	47	3	3	0	0	0	0	117
Preston	Ribbleton	5,337	Preston	707	2,252	60	182	30	0	0	0	3,231
Preston	Riversway	3,738	Preston	622	1,487	74	112	33	0	0	0	2,328
Preston	St George's	3,171	Preston	326	2,143	75	49	24	0	0	0	2,617
Preston	St Matthew's	4,285	Preston	526	2,333	58	146	11	0	0	0	3,074
Preston	Town Centre	4,749	Preston	676	2,429	82	58	47	0	0	0	3,292
Preston	Tulketh	4,593	Preston	882	1,668	80	154	33	0	0	0	2,817
Preston	University	1,891	Preston	410	1,170	70	37	32	0	0	0	1,719
	Total	56,085		8,489	24,210	1,206	1,349	351	0	0	0	35,605

The full details of these calculations are given on the Preston seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ribble Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ribble Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ribble Valley				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ribble Valley	Aighton, Bailey and Chaigley	1,134	Lancashire North	707	254	26	0	22	0	0	0	1,009
Ribble Valley	Alston and Hothersall	2,070	Lancashire North	994	412	59	0	32	0	0	0	1,497
Ribble Valley	Billington and Old Langho	2,414	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,224	464	68	0	40	0	0	0	1,796
Ribble Valley	Bowland, Newton and Slaidburn	1,074	Lancashire North	603	149	22	0	16	0	0	0	790
Ribble Valley	Chatburn	1,063	Lancashire North	498	207	25	0	15	0	0	0	745
Ribble Valley	Chipping	1,111	Lancashire North	525	192	24	0	15	0	0	0	756
Ribble Valley	Clayton-le-Dale with Ramsgreave	2,082	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,108	332	61	0	33	0	0	0	1,534
Ribble Valley	Derby and Thornley	2,394	Lancashire North	964	630	70	0	38	0	0	0	1,702
Ribble Valley	Dilworth	1,986	Lancashire North	882	507	60	0	32	0	0	0	1,481
Ribble Valley	Edisford and Low Moor	2,358	Pendle and Ribble Valley	644	677	208	0	41	0	0	0	1,570
Ribble Valley	Gisburn, Rimington	1,083	Lancashire North	533	227	28	0	17	0	0	0	805
Ribble Valley	Langho	1,890	Pendle and Ribble Valley	805	376	51	0	28	0	0	0	1,260
Ribble Valley	Littlemoor	2,371	Pendle and Ribble Valley	709	720	236	0	44	0	0	0	1,709
Ribble Valley	Mellor	2,228	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,147	333	63	0	35	0	0	0	1,578
Ribble Valley	Primrose	2,501	Pendle and Ribble Valley	714	721	258	0	46	0	0	0	1,739
Ribble Valley	Read and Simonstone	2,080	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,035	340	58	0	32	0	0	0	1,465
Ribble Valley	Ribchester	1,265	Lancashire North	608	230	38	0	21	0	0	0	897
Ribble Valley	Sabden	1,192	Pendle and Ribble Valley	431	327	38	0	19	0	0	0	815
Ribble Valley	Salthill	2,308	Pendle and Ribble Valley	924	552	231	0	46	0	0	0	1,753
Ribble Valley	St Mary's	2,274	Pendle and Ribble Valley	860	520	212	0	40	0	0	0	1,632
Ribble Valley	Waddington and West Bradford	2,527	Lancashire North	1,208	345	64	0	35	0	0	0	1,652
Ribble Valley	Whalley	3,078	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,593	499	97	0	50	0	0	0	2,239
Ribble Valley	Wilpshire	2,077	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,044	340	54	0	30	0	0	0	1,468
Ribble Valley	Wiswell and Pendleton	1,244	Pendle and Ribble Valley	485	215	27	0	15	0	0	0	742
South Ribble	Bamber Bridge East	3,184	Ribble South	1,140	1,337	110	0	56	0	0	0	2,643
South Ribble	Bamber Bridge West	3,006	Ribble South	1,070	1,242	109	0	57	0	0	0	2,478
South Ribble	Coupe Green and Gregson Lane	3,449	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,576	662	106	0	133	0	0	0	2,477
South Ribble	Farington East	2,483	Ribble South	780	739	159	0	37	0	0	0	1,715
South Ribble	Farington West	2,844	Ribble South	1,160	792	188	0	47	0	0	0	2,187
South Ribble	Lostock Hall	4,913	Ribble South	1,918	1,647	181	0	85	0	0	0	3,831
South Ribble	New Longton and Hutton East	237	Ribble South	107	41	11	0	8	0	0	0	167
South Ribble	Samlesbury and Walton	3,054	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,325	788	91	0	50	0	0	0	2,254
South Ribble	Walton-le-Dale East	3,172	Ribble South	1,231	944	107	0	48	0	0	0	2,330
South Ribble	Walton-le-Dale West	3,283	Ribble South	1,368	954	109	0	52	0	0	0	2,483
	Total	75,429		31,920	18,715	3,249	0	1,315	0	0	0	55,199

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ribble Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wyre and Preston North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wyre and Preston North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wyre and Preston North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Preston	Cadley	3,582	Preston	1,288	1,148	319	0	33	0	0	0	2,788
Preston	College	2,700	Preston	1,055	973	130	0	49	0	0	0	2,207
Preston	Garrison	5,282	Preston	1,963	1,723	223	0	78	0	0	0	3,987
Preston	Greyfriars	5,188	Preston	2,103	1,348	296	0	73	0	0	0	3,820
Preston	Preston Rural East	3,360	Lancashire North	1,667	791	75	0	25	0	0	0	2,558
Preston	Preston Rural North	5,328	Lancashire North	2,657	1,008	314	0	31	0	0	0	4,010
Preston	Sharoe Green	4,679	Preston	1,741	1,649	272	0	86	0	0	0	3,748
Wyre	Bourne	1,865	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	678	705	48	0	30	0	0	0	1,461
Wyre	Breck	2,855	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	1,364	782	80	0	49	0	0	0	2,275
Wyre	Brock with Catterall	3,058	Lancashire North	1,673	677	67	0	46	0	0	0	2,463
Wyre	Calder	1,676	Lancashire North	841	387	41	0	30	0	0	0	1,299
Wyre	Carleton	3,522	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	1,572	1,001	90	0	54	0	0	0	2,717
Wyre	Garstang	5,280	Lancashire North	2,418	1,232	124	0	88	0	0	0	3,862
Wyre	Great Eccleston	3,073	Lancashire North	1,583	649	55	0	41	0	0	0	2,328
Wyre	Hambleton and Stalmine	3,500	Lancashire North	1,610	820	63	0	46	0	0	0	2,539
Wyre	Hardhorn with High Cross	4,967	Fylde	2,289	1,108	114	0	72	0	0	0	3,583
Wyre	Marsh Mill	2,304	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	911	694	52	0	32	0	0	0	1,689
Wyre	Stanah	3,673	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	1,664	988	95	0	55	0	0	0	2,802
Wyre	Tithebarn	3,283	Fylde	1,607	753	91	0	54	0	0	0	2,505
	Total	69,175		30,684	18,436	2,549	0	972	0	0	0	52,641

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wyre and Preston North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lancashire North

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Lancashire North
Lancaster	Carnforth and Millhead	4,631	Morecambe and Lunesdale	1,699	1,272	107	53	33	0	0	0	3,164
Lancaster	Ellel	3,970	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,424	1,207	33	0	54	0	0	0	2,718
Lancaster	Halton-with-Aughton	1,741	Morecambe and Lunesdale	669	437	46	19	18	0	0	0	1,189
Lancaster	Kellet	1,611	Morecambe and Lunesdale	792	260	23	14	10	0	0	0	1,099
Lancaster	Lower Lune Valley	3,441	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,274	952	89	0	40	0	0	0	2,355
Lancaster	Silverdale	1,406	Morecambe and Lunesdale	554	281	99	13	14	0	0	0	961
Lancaster	University and Scotforth Rural	3,983	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,234	1,337	103	0	52	0	0	0	2,726
Lancaster	Upper Lune Valley	1,810	Morecambe and Lunesdale	897	289	24	15	11	0	0	0	1,236
Lancaster	Warton	1,555	Morecambe and Lunesdale	672	333	30	16	12	0	0	0	1,063
Preston	Preston Rural East	189	Preston	64	47	3	3	0	0	0	0	117
Preston	Preston Rural East	3,515	Wyre and Preston North	1,667	791	75	0	25	0	0	0	2,558
Preston	Preston Rural North	5,509	Wyre and Preston North	2,657	1,008	314	0	31	0	0	0	4,010
Ribble Valley	Aighton, Bailey and Chaigley	1,424	Ribble Valley	707	254	26	0	22	0	0	0	1,009
Ribble Valley	Alston and Hothersall	2,115	Ribble Valley	994	412	59	0	32	0	0	0	1,497
Ribble Valley	Bowland, Newton and Slaidburn	1,115	Ribble Valley	603	149	22	0	16	0	0	0	790
Ribble Valley	Chatburn	1,053	Ribble Valley	498	207	25	0	15	0	0	0	745
Ribble Valley	Chipping	1,068	Ribble Valley	525	192	24	0	15	0	0	0	756
Ribble Valley	Derby and Thornley	2,405	Ribble Valley	964	630	70	0	38	0	0	0	1,702
Ribble Valley	Dilworth	2,090	Ribble Valley	882	507	60	0	32	0	0	0	1,481
Ribble Valley	Gisburn, Rimington	1,137	Ribble Valley	533	227	28	0	17	0	0	0	805
Ribble Valley	Ribchester	1,267	Ribble Valley	608	230	38	0	21	0	0	0	897
Ribble Valley	Waddington and West Bradford	2,333	Ribble Valley	1,208	345	64	0	35	0	0	0	1,652
Wyre	Brock with Catterall	3,384	Wyre and Preston North	1,673	677	67	0	46	0	0	0	2,463
Wyre	Calder	1,785	Wyre and Preston North	841	387	41	0	30	0	0	0	1,299
Wyre	Garstang	5,306	Wyre and Preston North	2,418	1,232	124	0	88	0	0	0	3,862
Wyre	Great Eccleston	3,198	Wyre and Preston North	1,583	649	55	0	41	0	0	0	2,328
Wyre	Hambleton and Stalmine	3,488	Wyre and Preston North	1,610	820	63	0	46	0	0	0	2,539
Wyre	Pilling	1,779	Lancaster and Fleetwood	760	446	6	0	6	0	0	0	1,218
Wyre	Preesall	4,405	Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,755	1,225	19	0	18	0	0	0	3,017
Wyre	Wyresdale	1,551	Lancaster and Fleetwood	670	378	7	0	7	0	0	0	1,062
	Total	74,264		32,435	17,181	1,744	133	825	0	0	0	52,318

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lancashire North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Ben Wallace (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	74,264
Turnout:	70.4%

Lancashire North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lancashire North: Overview

Introduction