|Implied 2019 Votes||Implied 2019 Share|
See overview of other seats in Scotland.
The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Moray and Nairn constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.
The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).
The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.
|Party Winner 2019||SNP||SNP||CON|
|Party Winner 2017||CON||SNP||CON|
|Party Winner 2015||SNP||SNP||CON|
|Economic Position||13° Left||23° Left||0°|
|National Position||4° Glo||15° Glo||0°|
|Social Position||8° Lib||13° Lib||0°|
|EU Leave %||49%||38%||52%|
Moray and Nairn ranks #395 for "Leave", #501 for "Right", #430 for "National" and #508 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.
|Topic||Cat 1||Cat 2||Cat 3||Cat 4||Cat 5|
|Economic Position||Very Left||Left||Centrist||Right||Very Right|
|National Position||Very Global||Global||Centrist||National||Very Nat|
|Social Position||Very Lib||Liberal||Moderate||Conservative||Very Cons|
|EU Leave %||Very Remain||Remain||Balanced||Leave||Very Leave|
|Census||Very Low||Low||Medium||High||Very High|
Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:
|Definition / Included Census Categories|
|Party Winner||–||Area party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus|
|Economic Position||–||Economic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.|
|National Position||–||National position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.|
|Social Position||–||Social position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.|
|Tribe||–||Tribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.|
|EU Leave %||–||EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate|
|British Identity||National Identity (KS202)||Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British|
|Good Health||Health (KS301)||Those answering 'Very Good Health'|
|UK Born||Country of Birth (QS203)||Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other|
|Good Education||Highest level of Qualification (QS501)||Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)|
|Good Job||Occupation (QS606)||Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)|
|High SEC||NS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)||National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).|
|Average Age||Age (QS103)||Average age of adults (18 years and above)|
|ABC1 Class||Approximated Social Grade (QS611)||Approximated social grades A, B and C1|
This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Moray and Nairn been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.
In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.
Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.
There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.
Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.
More details of the calculation formulas are available.
The old seat(s) needed are:
The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.
|Old seat: Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey||Transfer-adjusted Results|
|Highland||Caol and Mallaig||33||Highland Central||8||1||2||0||1||11||0||0||23|
|Highland||Aird and Loch Ness||6,390||Highland Central;|
|Highland||Inverness West||6,513||Highland Central||1,211||291||668||96||152||2,156||0||0||4,574|
|Highland||Inverness Central||10,807||Highland Central||1,663||1,159||560||182||289||3,735||0||0||7,588|
|Highland||Inverness Ness-Side||9,046||Highland Central||1,843||439||884||141||223||2,822||0||0||6,352|
|Highland||Inverness Millburn||6,620||Highland Central||1,191||677||380||109||173||2,119||0||0||4,649|
|Highland||Culloden and Ardersier||8,994||Highland Central||1,983||373||644||121||192||3,003||0||0||6,316|
|Highland||Nairn||9,215||Moray and Nairn||1,921||345||504||116||184||3,400||0||0||6,470|
|Highland||Inverness South||9,982||Highland Central||2,163||311||1,061||119||188||3,167||0||0||7,009|
|Highland||Badenoch and Strathspey||10,458||Highland Central||2,218||376||724||131||207||3,688||0||0||7,344|
The full details of these calculations are given on the Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey seat details page. Click on "Show workings".
The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Moray, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.
|Old seat: Moray||Transfer-adjusted Results|
|Moray||Speyside Glenlivet||7,441||Moray and Nairn||2,301||143||146||0||0||2,478||0||47||5,115|
|Moray||Keith and Cullen||7,907||Moray and Nairn||2,303||178||188||0||0||2,717||0||50||5,436|
|Moray||Buckie||7,677||Moray and Nairn||2,119||250||270||0||0||2,593||0||45||5,277|
|Moray||Fochabers Lhanbryde||7,618||Moray and Nairn||2,618||245||311||0||0||2,023||0||38||5,235|
|Moray||Heldon and Laich||11,348||Moray and Nairn||3,703||239||277||0||0||3,523||0||59||7,801|
|Moray||Elgin City North||9,148||Moray and Nairn||2,594||561||362||0||0||2,709||0||61||6,287|
|Moray||Elgin City South||8,541||Moray and Nairn||2,341||541||403||0||0||2,536||0||48||5,869|
|Moray||Forres||11,355||Moray and Nairn||4,134||276||312||0||0||3,020||0||64||7,806|
The full details of these calculations are given on the Moray seat details page. Click on "Show workings".
|New seat: Moray and Nairn|
|Highland||Nairn||9,215||Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey||1,921||345||504||116||184||3,400||0||0||6,470|
|Moray||Elgin City North||9,148||Moray||2,594||561||362||0||0||2,709||0||61||6,287|
|Moray||Elgin City South||8,541||Moray||2,341||541||403||0||0||2,536||0||48||5,869|
|Moray||Heldon and Laich||11,348||Moray||3,703||239||277||0||0||3,523||0||59||7,801|
|Moray||Keith and Cullen||7,907||Moray||2,303||178||188||0||0||2,717||0||50||5,436|
And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Moray and Nairn. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.
© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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