Norfolk South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Norfolk South: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Richard Bacon  (CON)
County/Area:Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:81,922
Turnout:73.0%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,21558.9%
LAB18,09730.3%
LIB4,7117.9%
Green1,6182.7%
UKIP1740.3%
CON Majority17,11828.6%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Norfolk South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Norfolk South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Norfolk South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Norfolk Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norfolk Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norfolk MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BrecklandAll Saints and Wayland2,830Norfolk Mid1,5455377798250002,282
BrecklandAshill1,567Norfolk Mid6213004453330001,051
BrecklandAttleborough Burgh and Haverscroft3,800Norfolk Mid1,64881212069350002,684
BrecklandAttleborough Queens and Besthorpe5,052Norfolk Mid2,2091,009166172430003,599
BrecklandDereham Neatherd5,403Norfolk Mid2,1591,2541961831240003,916
BrecklandDereham Toftwood4,360Norfolk Mid1,5991,2191661681060003,258
BrecklandDereham Withburga4,321Norfolk Mid1,4211,46613874970003,196
BrecklandHermitage2,205Broadland and Fakenham9933865268170001,516
BrecklandLaunditch2,027Norfolk Mid1,0073254526180001,421
BrecklandLincoln4,065Norfolk Mid2,04566511065850002,970
BrecklandMattishall4,384Norfolk Mid1,664947119125360002,891
BrecklandNecton2,116Norfolk Mid7535034233140001,345
BrecklandSaham Toney3,769Norfolk Mid1,56977893131800002,651
BrecklandShipdham-with-Scarning4,265Norfolk Mid1,815895127140360003,013
BrecklandThe Buckenhams and Banham1,371Norfolk Mid627268341812000959
BrecklandUpper Wensum4,928Norfolk Mid2,220867131147440003,409
BrecklandWatton5,527Norfolk Mid2,2541,289186239500004,018
South NorfolkAbbey2,214Norfolk South81953017534250001,583
South NorfolkCromwells2,026Norfolk South85039018331240001,478
South NorfolkHingham and Deopham2,297Norfolk Mid97241617134210001,614
South NorfolkNorthfields2,149Norfolk South8885308036520001,586
South NorfolkRustens2,686Norfolk South9614258834550001,563
South NorfolkTown2,483Norfolk South1,12048710839660001,820
South NorfolkWicklewood2,062Norfolk Mid1,06944219877610001,847
 Total77,907 32,82816,7402,8492,0941,15900055,670

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norfolk Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Norfolk South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norfolk South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norfolk SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South NorfolkBeck Vale1,818Norfolk South839373980610001,371
South NorfolkBressingham and Burston2,228Norfolk South1,128480640840001,756
South NorfolkBrooke2,085Norfolk South1,0854271210260001,659
South NorfolkBunwell2,166Norfolk South1,076517960240001,713
South NorfolkChedgrave and Thurton2,108Norfolk South1,0355271160320001,710
South NorfolkCringleford4,448Norwich South2,0178202820560003,175
South NorfolkDickleburgh2,169Norfolk South1,150441890730001,753
South NorfolkDiss5,757Norfolk South2,4321,66841101950004,706
South NorfolkDitchingham and Broome1,945Norfolk South7564652110260001,458
South NorfolkEarsham1,986Norfolk South8204921910230001,526
South NorfolkEaston2,039Norfolk South1,1124331260290001,700
South NorfolkForncett2,175Norfolk South9954542050270001,681
South NorfolkGillingham2,261Norfolk South1,0445681450300001,787
South NorfolkHarleston3,712Norfolk South1,6319922170470002,887
South NorfolkHempnall2,065Norfolk South1,044459650240001,592
South NorfolkHethersett4,470Norfolk South2,0571,1392710600003,527
South NorfolkLoddon2,182Norfolk South9295421250310001,627
South NorfolkMulbarton4,088Norfolk South1,92894821701350003,228
South NorfolkNewton Flotman2,081Norfolk South9625381280270001,655
South NorfolkOld Costessey6,098Norwich South1,9891,8115770770004,454
South NorfolkPoringland with the Framinghams4,044Norfolk South1,9237822360490002,990
South NorfolkRockland2,308Norfolk South1,0485371510280001,764
South NorfolkRoydon1,837Norfolk South9084851060230001,522
South NorfolkScole1,893Norfolk South950363850620001,460
South NorfolkStoke Holy Cross2,226Norfolk South9005412470950001,783
South NorfolkStratton4,240Norfolk South1,8951,14723201610003,435
South NorfolkTasburgh1,907Norfolk South9304171240240001,495
South NorfolkThurlton2,216Great Yarmouth9955381390270001,699
 Total78,552 35,57818,9045,07501,55600061,113

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norfolk South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Norfolk South

The new seat of Norfolk South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Norfolk South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South NorfolkAbbey2,274Norfolk Mid81953017534250001,583
South NorfolkBeck Vale1,865Norfolk South839373980610001,371
South NorfolkBressingham and Burston2,388Norfolk South1,128480640840001,756
South NorfolkBrooke2,255Norfolk South1,0854271210260001,659
South NorfolkBunwell2,329Norfolk South1,076517960240001,713
South NorfolkChedgrave and Thurton2,324Norfolk South1,0355271160320001,710
South NorfolkCromwells2,124Norfolk Mid85039018331240001,478
South NorfolkDickleburgh2,382Norfolk South1,150441890730001,753
South NorfolkDiss6,394Norfolk South2,4321,66841101950004,706
South NorfolkDitchingham and Broome1,983Norfolk South7564652110260001,458
South NorfolkEarsham2,074Norfolk South8204921910230001,526
South NorfolkEaston2,310Norfolk South1,1124331260290001,700
South NorfolkForncett2,285Norfolk South9954542050270001,681
South NorfolkGillingham2,430Norfolk South1,0445681450300001,787
South NorfolkHarleston3,924Norfolk South1,6319922170470002,887
South NorfolkHempnall2,163Norfolk South1,044459650240001,592
South NorfolkHethersett4,794Norfolk South2,0571,1392710600003,527
South NorfolkLoddon2,210Norfolk South9295421250310001,627
South NorfolkMulbarton4,388Norfolk South1,92894821701350003,228
South NorfolkNewton Flotman2,247Norfolk South9625381280270001,655
South NorfolkNorthfields2,279Norfolk Mid8885308036520001,586
South NorfolkPoringland with the Framinghams4,063Norfolk South1,9237822360490002,990
South NorfolkRockland2,397Norfolk South1,0485371510280001,764
South NorfolkRoydon2,068Norfolk South9084851060230001,522
South NorfolkRustens2,246Norfolk Mid9614258834550001,563
South NorfolkScole1,984Norfolk South950363850620001,460
South NorfolkStoke Holy Cross2,424Norfolk South9005412470950001,783
South NorfolkStratton4,669Norfolk South1,8951,14723201610003,435
South NorfolkTasburgh2,032Norfolk South9304171240240001,495
South NorfolkTown2,617Norfolk Mid1,12048710839660001,820
 Total81,922 35,21518,0974,7111741,61800059,815

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Norfolk South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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