New Seat Details - Paddington and Queen's Park

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Paddington and Queen's Park been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	33,629	63.8%
CON	15,080	28.6%
LIB	3,024	5.7%
Green	726	1.4%
OTH	167	0.3%
UKIP	50	0.1%
LAB Majority	18,549	35.2%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Paddington and Queen's Park: Map

List of old seats forming part of Paddington and Queen's Park

Old seat: Cities of London and Westminster

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cities of London and Westminster, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cities of London and Westminster				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City of London	Aldersgate	1,451	Cities of London and Westminster	418	345	207	10	22	0	0	14	1,016
City of London	Aldgate	24	Cities of London and Westminster	6	7	4	0	0	0	0	0	17
City of London	Bassishaw	5	Cities of London and Westminster	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
City of London	Billingsgate	13	Cities of London and Westminster	3	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	9
City of London	Bishopsgate	94	Cities of London and Westminster	26	26	11	1	1	0	0	1	66
City of London	Bread Street	14	Cities of London and Westminster	3	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	10
City of London	Bridge	36	Cities of London and Westminster	10	10	5	0	0	0	0	0	25
City of London	Broad Street	22	Cities of London and Westminster	7	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	15
City of London	Candlewick	14	Cities of London and Westminster	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	10
City of London	Castle Baynard	257	Cities of London and Westminster	81	57	34	2	4	0	0	3	181
City of London	Cheap	13	Cities of London and Westminster	3	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	9
City of London	Coleman Street	2	Cities of London and Westminster	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
City of London	Cordwainer	9	Cities of London and Westminster	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	6
City of London	Cornhill	12	Cities of London and Westminster	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	8
City of London	Cripplegate	2,105	Cities of London and Westminster	573	546	287	15	30	0	0	24	1,475
City of London	Dowgate	26	Cities of London and Westminster	8	6	3	0	0	0	0	0	17
City of London	Farringdon Within	491	Cities of London and Westminster	143	122	64	3	7	0	0	4	343
City of London	Farringdon Without	494	Cities of London and Westminster	148	123	63	3	5	0	0	3	345
City of London	Langbourn	5	Cities of London and Westminster	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
City of London	Lime Street	1	Cities of London and Westminster	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
City of London	Portsoken	649	Cities of London and Westminster	145	223	71	4	6	0	0	5	454
City of London	Queenhithe	272	Cities of London and Westminster	82	67	36	2	3	0	0	1	191
City of London	Tower	142	Cities of London and Westminster	40	37	17	1	2	0	0	2	99
City of London	Vintry	3	Cities of London and Westminster	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
City of London	Walbrook	5	Cities of London and Westminster	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
City of Westminster	Bryanston and Dorset Square	5,300	Cities of London and Westminster	1,760	1,335	404	20	85	0	0	10	3,614
City of Westminster	Churchill	5,498	Cities of London and Westminster	1,186	1,817	263	29	57	0	0	39	3,391
City of Westminster	Hyde Park	5,386	Paddington and Queen's Park	1,750	1,517	313	50	79	0	0	16	3,725
City of Westminster	Knightsbridge and Belgravia	3,769	Cities of London and Westminster	1,819	813	221	20	60	0	0	17	2,950
City of Westminster	Marylebone High Street	4,772	Cities of London and Westminster	1,797	1,045	407	16	78	0	0	9	3,352
City of Westminster	St James's	5,952	Cities of London and Westminster	1,680	1,457	463	63	87	0	0	15	3,765
City of Westminster	Tachbrook	4,942	Cities of London and Westminster	1,454	1,163	341	49	60	0	0	9	3,076
City of Westminster	Vincent Square	5,967	Cities of London and Westminster	1,619	1,591	341	64	85	0	0	39	3,739
City of Westminster	Warwick	5,491	Cities of London and Westminster	1,680	1,274	381	59	67	0	0	9	3,470
City of Westminster	West End	4,836	Cities of London and Westminster	1,551	1,243	315	18	83	0	0	52	3,262
	Total	58,072		18,006	14,858	4,268	429	821	0	0	272	38,654

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cities of London and Westminster seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hampstead and Kilburn

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hampstead and Kilburn, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hampstead and Kilburn				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Brent	Brondesbury Park	7,552	Willesden and Shepherd's Bush	2,235	3,226	342	0	60	0	0	19	5,882
Brent	Kilburn	9,522	Paddington and Queen's Park	1,400	5,458	362	0	79	0	0	60	7,359
Brent	Queens Park	8,846	Paddington and Queen's Park	1,723	4,620	490	0	79	0	0	11	6,923
Camden	Belsize	7,099	Hampstead	2,068	3,094	466	0	85	0	0	31	5,744
Camden	Fortune Green	7,116	Hampstead	1,611	3,114	495	0	78	0	0	12	5,310
Camden	Frognal and Fitzjohns	6,160	Hampstead	2,675	2,365	301	0	68	0	0	12	5,421
Camden	Hampstead Town	6,609	Hampstead	2,128	2,423	430	0	78	0	0	13	5,072
Camden	Kilburn	7,369	Hampstead	1,094	3,876	408	0	71	0	0	10	5,459
Camden	Swiss Cottage	7,459	Hampstead	2,412	3,011	323	0	68	0	0	6	5,820
Camden	West Hampstead	7,245	Hampstead	1,556	3,277	483	0	76	0	0	22	5,414
	Total	74,977		18,902	34,464	4,100	0	742	0	0	196	58,404

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hampstead and Kilburn seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Westminster North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Westminster North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Westminster North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
City of Westminster	Abbey Road	5,469	Cities of London and Westminster	2,113	1,801	183	0	46	0	0	5	4,148
City of Westminster	Bayswater	4,920	Paddington and Queen's Park	1,452	1,877	430	0	63	0	0	6	3,828
City of Westminster	Church Street	6,332	Paddington and Queen's Park	787	3,388	117	0	54	0	0	18	4,364
City of Westminster	Harrow Road	6,440	Paddington and Queen's Park	919	3,335	148	0	62	0	0	10	4,474
City of Westminster	Lancaster Gate	5,140	Paddington and Queen's Park	2,140	2,262	395	0	75	0	0	6	4,878
City of Westminster	Little Venice	5,545	Paddington and Queen's Park	1,697	1,934	260	0	58	0	0	5	3,954
City of Westminster	Maida Vale	5,689	Paddington and Queen's Park	1,445	2,067	216	0	53	0	0	5	3,786
City of Westminster	Queen's Park	7,054	Paddington and Queen's Park	860	3,586	139	0	59	0	0	15	4,659
City of Westminster	Regent's Park	6,097	Cities of London and Westminster	2,103	2,099	210	0	60	0	0	6	4,478
City of Westminster	Westbourne	6,750	Paddington and Queen's Park	907	3,585	154	0	65	0	0	15	4,726
	Total	59,436		14,423	25,934	2,252	0	595	0	0	91	43,295

The full details of these calculations are given on the Westminster North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Paddington and Queen's Park

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Paddington and Queen's Park
Brent	Kilburn	10,452	Hampstead and Kilburn	1,400	5,458	362	0	79	0	0	60	7,359
Brent	Queens Park	9,833	Hampstead and Kilburn	1,723	4,620	490	0	79	0	0	11	6,923
City of Westminster	Bayswater	5,643	Westminster North	1,452	1,877	430	0	63	0	0	6	3,828
City of Westminster	Church Street	6,435	Westminster North	787	3,388	117	0	54	0	0	18	4,364
City of Westminster	Harrow Road	6,598	Westminster North	919	3,335	148	0	62	0	0	10	4,474
City of Westminster	Hyde Park	5,928	Cities of London and Westminster	1,750	1,517	313	50	79	0	0	16	3,725
City of Westminster	Lancaster Gate	7,194	Westminster North	2,140	2,262	395	0	75	0	0	6	4,878
City of Westminster	Little Venice	5,832	Westminster North	1,697	1,934	260	0	58	0	0	5	3,954
City of Westminster	Maida Vale	5,584	Westminster North	1,445	2,067	216	0	53	0	0	5	3,786
City of Westminster	Queen's Park	6,871	Westminster North	860	3,586	139	0	59	0	0	15	4,659
City of Westminster	Westbourne	6,970	Westminster North	907	3,585	154	0	65	0	0	15	4,726
	Total	77,340		15,080	33,629	3,024	50	726	0	0	167	52,676

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Paddington and Queen's Park. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Karen Buck (LAB)
County/Area:	City of Westminster (London)
Electorate:	77,340
Turnout:	68.1%

Paddington and Queen's Park: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Paddington and Queen's Park: Overview

Introduction