Rochford and Southend East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Rochford and Southend East: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:James Duddridge  (CON)
County/Area:Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:77,102
Turnout:64.6%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON24,80249.8%
LAB18,01036.2%
MIN2,9255.9%
UKIP1,8903.8%
LIB1,3122.6%
Green8501.7%
CON Majority6,79213.6%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Rochford and Southend East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Rochford and Southend East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Rochford and Southend East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Rayleigh and Wickford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rayleigh and Wickford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Rayleigh and WickfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BasildonWickford Castledon6,160Rayleigh and Wickford2,8381,147110196730004,364
BasildonWickford North9,487Rayleigh and Wickford4,4192,0111483151140007,007
BasildonWickford Park6,778Rayleigh and Wickford3,4411,491148229900005,399
RochfordAshingdon and Canewdon3,437Rochford and Southend East1,78654447113450002,535
RochfordDownhall and Rawreth3,705Rayleigh and Wickford1,790603205125460002,769
RochfordGrange2,762Rayleigh and Wickford1,4244916894370002,114
RochfordHawkwell North3,440Rayleigh and Wickford1,76860251114400002,575
RochfordHawkwell South3,410Rayleigh and Wickford1,52767661119450002,428
RochfordHawkwell West3,447Rayleigh and Wickford1,61252148115430002,339
RochfordHockley Central5,175Rayleigh and Wickford2,6938019392590003,738
RochfordHockley North1,650Rayleigh and Wickford8562961826140001,210
RochfordHockley West1,593Rayleigh and Wickford8952251625140001,175
RochfordHullbridge5,350Rayleigh and Wickford2,408840811772020003,708
RochfordLodge3,209Rayleigh and Wickford1,7853863952300002,292
RochfordRayleigh Central3,236Rayleigh and Wickford1,572567152107430002,441
RochfordSweyne Park3,361Rayleigh and Wickford1,59368076123480002,520
RochfordTrinity2,872Rayleigh and Wickford1,3774465796370002,013
RochfordWheatley3,151Rayleigh and Wickford1,55662466107430002,396
RochfordWhitehouse3,233Rayleigh and Wickford1,57251472102400002,300
 Total75,456 36,91213,4651,5562,3271,06300055,323

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rayleigh and Wickford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Rochford and Southend East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rochford and Southend East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Rochford and Southend EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RochfordBarling and Sutton1,383Rochford and Southend East5582231139150370883
RochfordFoulness and Great Wakering4,436Rochford and Southend East1,5477853812318019102,702
RochfordRochford5,616Rochford and Southend East1,9051,3486516234013403,648
Southend-on-SeaKursaal6,912Rochford and Southend East2,0602,485164237108019605,250
Southend-on-SeaMilton6,684Rochford and Southend East2,3692,176189116111025405,215
Southend-on-SeaShoeburyness8,346Rochford and Southend East2,7531,78513111797038405,267
Southend-on-SeaSouthchurch7,317Rochford and Southend East2,4871,4278719770033404,602
Southend-on-SeaSt Luke's7,711Rochford and Southend East2,3881,946168259103043605,300
Southend-on-SeaThorpe7,244Rochford and Southend East2,3791,2301109776042104,313
Southend-on-SeaVictoria6,666Rochford and Southend East1,8942,623169234105019905,224
Southend-on-SeaWest Shoebury7,218Rochford and Southend East2,6761,43813319668033904,850
 Total69,533 23,01617,4661,2651,77780502,925047,254

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rochford and Southend East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Rochford and Southend East

The new seat of Rochford and Southend East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Rochford and Southend East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RochfordAshingdon and Canewdon3,599Rayleigh and Wickford1,78654447113450002,535
RochfordBarling and Sutton1,374Rochford and Southend East5582231139150370883
RochfordFoulness and Great Wakering4,202Rochford and Southend East1,5477853812318019102,702
RochfordRochford5,674Rochford and Southend East1,9051,3486516234013403,648
Southend-on-SeaKursaal8,168Rochford and Southend East2,0602,485164237108019605,250
Southend-on-SeaMilton8,112Rochford and Southend East2,3692,176189116111025405,215
Southend-on-SeaShoeburyness8,192Rochford and Southend East2,7531,78513111797038405,267
Southend-on-SeaSouthchurch7,159Rochford and Southend East2,4871,4278719770033404,602
Southend-on-SeaSt Luke's8,243Rochford and Southend East2,3881,946168259103043605,300
Southend-on-SeaThorpe6,708Rochford and Southend East2,3791,2301109776042104,313
Southend-on-SeaVictoria8,126Rochford and Southend East1,8942,623169234105019905,224
Southend-on-SeaWest Shoebury7,545Rochford and Southend East2,6761,43813319668033904,850
 Total77,102 24,80218,0101,3121,89085002,925049,789

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Rochford and Southend East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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