Saffron Walden: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Saffron Walden: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Kemi Badenoch  (CON)
County/Area:Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:76,014
Turnout:72.3%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,90363.5%
LAB11,31020.6%
LIB6,85112.5%
UKIP1,7933.3%
Green1100.2%
CON Majority23,59342.9%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Saffron Walden been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Saffron Walden: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Saffron Walden

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Braintree

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Braintree, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BraintreeTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BraintreeBocking Blackwater7,232Braintree3,4371,4443502121010005,544
BraintreeBocking North4,018Braintree1,5521,038106110570002,863
BraintreeBocking South4,230Braintree1,6671,263142134720003,278
BraintreeBraintree Central and Beckers Green5,905Braintree2,4901,8602181911050004,864
BraintreeBraintree South4,347Braintree1,7371,18010567340003,123
BraintreeBraintree West4,643Braintree1,985878156128680003,215
BraintreeBumpstead2,285Saffron Walden1,1263394757120001,581
BraintreeCoggeshall499Braintree2378214127000352
BraintreeGosfield and Greenstead Green2,211Braintree1,0382733826270001,402
BraintreeGreat Notley and Black Notley5,359Braintree2,822804156139720003,993
BraintreeHalstead St Andrews4,216Braintree1,89783714868830003,033
BraintreeHalstead Trinity4,598Braintree1,7581,224160146390003,327
BraintreeHedingham4,109Braintree1,876656107110310002,780
BraintreeRayne2,203Saffron Walden1,0752645355300001,477
BraintreeSilver End and Cressing1,210Braintree543236424221000884
BraintreeStour Valley North2,271Braintree1,1072643854120001,475
BraintreeStour Valley South2,404Braintree1,12124813257150001,573
BraintreeThe Colnes4,429Braintree2,2526539157620003,115
BraintreeThree Fields4,480Saffron Walden2,147558100107550002,967
BraintreeYeldham2,110Saffron Walden1,0073494759130001,475
 Total72,759 32,87414,4502,2501,83191600052,321

The full details of these calculations are given on the Braintree seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Saffron Walden

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Saffron Walden, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Saffron WaldenTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChelmsfordBoreham and The Leighs4,691Witham and Maldon2,3958034938300003,774
ChelmsfordBroomfield and The Walthams6,367Brentwood and Ongar2,7961,09461929400004,803
ChelmsfordChelmsford Rural West2,181Brentwood and Ongar1,1542881693400001,645
ChelmsfordWrittle4,151Billericay1,73767964316600003,225
UttlesfordAshdon1,560Saffron Walden7712261057700001,179
UttlesfordBroad Oak and the Hallingburys3,033Saffron Walden1,64640319113800002,378
UttlesfordClavering1,776Saffron Walden9382121242500001,299
UttlesfordDebden and Wimbish1,628Saffron Walden1,0042501563100001,441
UttlesfordElsenham and Henham2,800Saffron Walden1,1184475375400002,156
UttlesfordFelsted and Stebbing3,268Saffron Walden1,70548025316400002,602
UttlesfordFlitch Green and Little Dunmow1,546Saffron Walden1,0322931363100001,492
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow North3,154Saffron Walden1,5045282385900002,329
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow South and Barnston4,552Saffron Walden2,3537163578500003,511
UttlesfordHatfield Heath1,676Saffron Walden9272391193000001,315
UttlesfordHigh Easter and The Rodings1,772Saffron Walden9692361312800001,364
UttlesfordLittlebury, Chesterford and Wenden Lofts3,290Saffron Walden1,7454602545400002,513
UttlesfordNewport2,652Saffron Walden1,3074552535100002,066
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Audley3,315Saffron Walden1,4366226336700002,758
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Castle3,002Saffron Walden1,20671329311000002,322
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Shire5,194Saffron Walden2,3701,07349311400004,050
UttlesfordStansted North3,253Saffron Walden1,3134826125700002,464
UttlesfordStansted South and Birchanger3,091Saffron Walden1,0934494764700002,065
UttlesfordStort Valley1,559Saffron Walden7052102552300001,193
UttlesfordTakeley4,300Saffron Walden1,87260726118600002,926
UttlesfordThaxted and the Eastons3,613Saffron Walden1,5944866025800002,740
UttlesfordThe Sampfords1,668Saffron Walden9402131252600001,304
 Total79,092 37,63012,6648,5282,092000060,914

The full details of these calculations are given on the Saffron Walden seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Saffron Walden

The new seat of Saffron Walden is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Saffron Walden
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BraintreeBumpstead2,276Braintree1,1263394757120001,581
BraintreeRayne2,127Braintree1,0752645355300001,477
BraintreeThree Fields4,272Braintree2,147558100107550002,967
BraintreeYeldham2,123Braintree1,0073494759130001,475
UttlesfordAshdon1,620Saffron Walden7712261057700001,179
UttlesfordBroad Oak and the Hallingburys3,267Saffron Walden1,64640319113800002,378
UttlesfordClavering1,785Saffron Walden9382121242500001,299
UttlesfordDebden and Wimbish1,980Saffron Walden1,0042501563100001,441
UttlesfordElsenham and Henham2,964Saffron Walden1,1184475375400002,156
UttlesfordFelsted and Stebbing3,574Saffron Walden1,70548025316400002,602
UttlesfordFlitch Green and Little Dunmow2,050Saffron Walden1,0322931363100001,492
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow North3,200Saffron Walden1,5045282385900002,329
UttlesfordGreat Dunmow South and Barnston4,823Saffron Walden2,3537163578500003,511
UttlesfordHatfield Heath1,805Saffron Walden9272391193000001,315
UttlesfordHigh Easter and The Rodings1,874Saffron Walden9692361312800001,364
UttlesfordLittlebury, Chesterford and Wenden Lofts3,452Saffron Walden1,7454602545400002,513
UttlesfordNewport2,839Saffron Walden1,3074552535100002,066
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Audley3,789Saffron Walden1,4366226336700002,758
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Castle3,192Saffron Walden1,20671329311000002,322
UttlesfordSaffron Walden Shire5,563Saffron Walden2,3701,07349311400004,050
UttlesfordStansted North3,385Saffron Walden1,3134826125700002,464
UttlesfordStansted South and Birchanger2,838Saffron Walden1,0934494764700002,065
UttlesfordStort Valley1,639Saffron Walden7052102552300001,193
UttlesfordTakeley4,021Saffron Walden1,87260726118600002,926
UttlesfordThaxted and the Eastons3,764Saffron Walden1,5944866025800002,740
UttlesfordThe Sampfords1,792Saffron Walden9402131252600001,304
 Total76,014 34,90311,3106,8511,79311000054,967

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Saffron Walden. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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