Southend West and Hadleigh: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Southend West and Hadleigh: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:David Amess  (CON)
County/Area:Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:77,288
Turnout:69.1%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,25556.7%
LAB17,43432.7%
LIB2,2924.3%
UKIP2,0743.9%
Green8321.6%
OTH4920.9%
CON Majority12,82124.0%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Southend West and Hadleigh been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Southend West and Hadleigh: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Southend West and Hadleigh

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Castle Point

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Castle Point, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Castle PointTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Castle PointAppleton5,311Castle Point2,3108078823200003,437
Castle PointBoyce5,133Castle Point2,4576418323100003,412
Castle PointCanvey Island Central4,959Castle Point2,2171,0215511900003,412
Castle PointCanvey Island East4,740Castle Point2,2438316211600003,252
Castle PointCanvey Island North5,090Castle Point2,1619546011800003,293
Castle PointCanvey Island South4,960Castle Point2,4038016411800003,386
Castle PointCanvey Island West3,679Castle Point1,661585388000002,364
Castle PointCanvey Island Winter Gardens4,870Castle Point2,3331,1608012500003,698
Castle PointCedar Hall4,663Castle Point1,9816767120000002,928
Castle PointSt George's4,495Castle Point1,8907867419800002,948
Castle PointSt James5,259Southend West and Hadleigh2,22875410521700003,304
Castle PointSt Mary's4,853Castle Point2,01877611021400003,118
Castle PointSt Peter's5,008Castle Point2,1977798022200003,278
Castle PointVictoria4,521Southend West and Hadleigh1,9796347819100002,882
 Total67,541 30,07811,2051,0482,381000044,712

The full details of these calculations are given on the Castle Point seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Southend West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Southend West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Southend WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Southend-on-SeaBelfairs7,262Southend West and Hadleigh2,8211,4901812667800664,902
Southend-on-SeaBlenheim Park7,713Southend West and Hadleigh2,8522,0412672989600385,592
Southend-on-SeaChalkwell6,726Southend West and Hadleigh3,1751,75218111610200745,400
Southend-on-SeaEastwood Park7,477Southend West and Hadleigh3,1461,4092051127100524,995
Southend-on-SeaLeigh7,124Southend West and Hadleigh3,0051,71732811112100325,314
Southend-on-SeaPrittlewell7,419Southend West and Hadleigh2,9341,7682421189100715,224
Southend-on-SeaSt Laurence7,328Southend West and Hadleigh2,7011,7962262737900505,125
Southend-on-SeaWest Leigh6,947Southend West and Hadleigh2,9791,3272312387700274,879
Southend-on-SeaWestborough6,956Southend West and Hadleigh2,4352,74624813411700825,762
 Total64,952 26,04816,0462,1091,6668320049247,193

The full details of these calculations are given on the Southend West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Southend West and Hadleigh

The new seat of Southend West and Hadleigh is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Southend West and Hadleigh
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Castle PointSt James5,133Castle Point2,22875410521700003,304
Castle PointVictoria4,477Castle Point1,9796347819100002,882
Southend-on-SeaBelfairs7,030Southend West2,8211,4901812667800664,902
Southend-on-SeaBlenheim Park8,020Southend West2,8522,0412672989600385,592
Southend-on-SeaChalkwell7,744Southend West3,1751,75218111610200745,400
Southend-on-SeaEastwood Park7,164Southend West3,1461,4092051127100524,995
Southend-on-SeaLeigh7,620Southend West3,0051,71732811112100325,314
Southend-on-SeaPrittlewell7,490Southend West2,9341,7682421189100715,224
Southend-on-SeaSt Laurence7,349Southend West2,7011,7962262737900505,125
Southend-on-SeaWest Leigh6,996Southend West2,9791,3272312387700274,879
Southend-on-SeaWestborough8,265Southend West2,4352,74624813411700825,762
 Total77,288 30,25517,4342,2922,0748320049253,379

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Southend West and Hadleigh. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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