Southport: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Southport: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Damien Moore  (CON)
County/Area:Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:80,170
Turnout:69.5%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON23,25941.7%
LAB18,21532.7%
LIB12,81523.0%
UKIP1,3542.4%
OTH640.1%
Green460.1%
CON Majority5,0449.0%

See overview of other seats in North West.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Southport been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Southport: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Southport

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Ribble South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ribble South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ribble SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChorleyEccleston and Mawdesley4,964Chorley1,9151,221571041600163,329
ChorleyLostock3,381Ribble South2,0971,240109522500143,537
South RibbleBroad Oak3,534Ribble South1,366809185381800122,428
South RibbleBroadfield3,573Ribble South1,0241,65271451900192,830
South RibbleBuckshaw and Worden3,642Ribble South1,36782396291200122,339
South RibbleCharnock2,785Ribble South9479858634160092,077
South RibbleEarnshaw Bridge3,438Ribble South1,2431,28659991900222,728
South RibbleFarington East308Ribble South98981441001216
South RibbleHoole3,237Ribble South1,38071282801300232,290
South RibbleHowick and Priory5,486Ribble South2,2291,2513131369800234,050
South RibbleLeyland Central3,437Ribble South1,2001,301143455200112,752
South RibbleLongton and Hutton West4,550Ribble South2,0118591671022000193,178
South RibbleMiddleforth5,370Ribble South1,8322,1461601433800224,341
South RibbleMoss Side3,082Ribble South1,25091863761700102,334
South RibbleNew Longton and Hutton East3,392Ribble South1,570661100334400152,423
South RibbleSeven Stars2,998Ribble South9711,37744811500132,501
South RibbleSt Ambrose3,167Ribble South1,0081,292152431700132,525
West LancashireHesketh-with-Becconsall3,133Southport1,4038044233120072,301
West LancashireNorth Meols3,177Southport1,30687442831400112,330
West LancashireRufford1,637Lancashire West7543421917600231,161
West LancashireTarleton4,437Southport2,009910701102000463,165
 Total72,728 28,98021,5612,0741,3874920034154,835

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ribble South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Southport

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Southport, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: SouthportTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SeftonAinsdale9,540Southport2,8381,9261,53314900006,446
SeftonBirkdale9,494Southport2,5072,3392,04716100007,054
SeftonCambridge8,945Southport2,8281,8001,56015100006,339
SeftonDuke's9,181Southport3,1592,0781,60616200007,005
SeftonKew8,901Southport2,1842,6021,97516600006,927
SeftonMeols9,528Southport2,7061,9551,78815500006,604
SeftonNorwood9,492Southport2,3192,9272,15218400007,582
 Total65,081 18,54115,62712,6611,128000047,957

The full details of these calculations are given on the Southport seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Southport

The new seat of Southport is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Southport
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SeftonAinsdale9,327Southport2,8381,9261,53314900006,446
SeftonBirkdale10,210Southport2,5072,3392,04716100007,054
SeftonCambridge9,173Southport2,8281,8001,56015100006,339
SeftonDuke's10,139Southport3,1592,0781,60616200007,005
SeftonKew10,024Southport2,1842,6021,97516600006,927
SeftonMeols9,556Southport2,7061,9551,78815500006,604
SeftonNorwood10,971Southport2,3192,9272,15218400007,582
West LancashireHesketh-with-Becconsall3,179Ribble South1,4038044233120072,301
West LancashireNorth Meols3,219Ribble South1,30687442831400112,330
West LancashireTarleton4,372Ribble South2,009910701102000463,165
 Total80,170 23,25918,21512,8151,35446006455,753

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Southport. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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