Watford: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Watford: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Richard Harrington  (CON)
County/Area:Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:79,031
Turnout:68.7%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON23,83243.9%
LAB23,67443.6%
LIB4,8368.9%
UKIP1,2122.2%
Green7431.4%
CON Majority1580.3%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Watford been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Watford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Watford

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Hertfordshire South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hertfordshire South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hertfordshire South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DacorumAldbury and Wigginton1,839Hertfordshire South West81330819816590001,394
DacorumBerkhamsted Castle4,548Hertfordshire South West1,995724488411460003,394
DacorumBerkhamsted East4,368Hertfordshire South West1,818985495391530003,490
DacorumBerkhamsted West4,411Hertfordshire South West2,043930333381430003,487
DacorumBovingdon, Flaunden and Chipperfield6,276Hertfordshire South West3,620968348671970005,200
DacorumNorthchurch2,127Hertfordshire South West1,01736214622650001,612
DacorumTring Central3,822Hertfordshire South West1,670763430421280003,033
DacorumTring East2,149Hertfordshire South West1,02037522947310001,702
DacorumTring West and Rural4,017Hertfordshire South West1,624752448911300003,045
Three RiversCarpenders Park1,383Watford55833310236160001,045
Three RiversChorleywood North and Sarratt5,848Hertfordshire South West2,92467625299510004,002
Three RiversChorleywood South and Maple Cross5,728Hertfordshire South West2,6191,00266455710004,411
Three RiversDickinsons5,147Hertfordshire South West1,9631,000590113650003,731
Three RiversDurrants5,026Hertfordshire South West1,812937580118560003,503
Three RiversMoor Park and Eastbury4,571Hertfordshire South West2,53052519617390003,307
Three RiversOxhey Hall and Hayling2,589Watford99877125669330002,127
Three RiversPenn and Mill End5,063Hertfordshire South West2,0821,197608129590004,075
Three RiversRickmansworth Town5,369Hertfordshire South West2,378990429107670003,971
Three RiversSouth Oxhey4,537Watford1,6431,978286147680004,122
 Total78,818 35,12715,5767,0781,2931,57700060,651

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hertfordshire South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Watford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Watford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WatfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Three RiversAbbots Langley and Bedmond3,892St Albans1,45684025831160002,601
Three RiversCarpenders Park3,623Watford1,37786917663120002,497
Three RiversGade Valley2,958Hemel Hempstead1,16868118724110002,071
Three RiversLeavesden5,111St Albans1,7501,18635083190003,388
Three RiversOxhey Hall and Hayling2,268Watford83465816240100001,704
WatfordCallowland4,815Watford1,4541,90831289600003,823
WatfordCentral5,543Watford1,4922,10043694660004,188
WatfordHolywell5,624Watford1,4732,58724884560004,448
WatfordLeggatts5,518Watford1,6531,83323082480003,846
WatfordMeriden5,679Watford1,7771,72039497480004,036
WatfordNascot6,002Watford2,0761,32937578540003,912
WatfordOxhey5,054Watford1,5961,33046240640003,492
WatfordPark5,699Watford2,1131,34438975540003,975
WatfordStanborough5,189Watford1,8101,37140168470003,697
WatfordTudor4,430Watford1,6141,09731567420003,135
WatfordVicarage4,698Watford1,3642,44629283650004,250
WatfordWoodside5,233St Albans1,7261,33834786470003,544
 Total81,336 26,73324,6375,3341,18471900058,607

The full details of these calculations are given on the Watford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Watford

The new seat of Watford is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Watford
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Three RiversCarpenders Park1,382Hertfordshire South West55833310236160001,045
Three RiversCarpenders Park3,687Watford1,37786917663120002,497
Three RiversOxhey Hall and Hayling2,817Hertfordshire South West99877125669330002,127
Three RiversOxhey Hall and Hayling2,514Watford83465816240100001,704
Three RiversSouth Oxhey5,457Hertfordshire South West1,6431,978286147680004,122
WatfordCallowland5,642Watford1,4541,90831289600003,823
WatfordCentral6,181Watford1,4922,10043694660004,188
WatfordHolywell6,564Watford1,4732,58724884560004,448
WatfordLeggatts5,677Watford1,6531,83323082480003,846
WatfordMeriden5,957Watford1,7771,72039497480004,036
WatfordNascot5,775Watford2,0761,32937578540003,912
WatfordOxhey5,154Watford1,5961,33046240640003,492
WatfordPark5,867Watford2,1131,34438975540003,975
WatfordStanborough5,457Watford1,8101,37140168470003,697
WatfordTudor4,627Watford1,6141,09731567420003,135
WatfordVicarage6,273Watford1,3642,44629283650004,250
 Total79,031 23,83223,6744,8361,21274300054,297

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Watford. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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