New Seat Details - Westmorland and Lonsdale

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Westmorland and Lonsdale been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	26,792	46.3%
LIB	24,160	41.8%
LAB	6,291	10.9%
OTH	392	0.7%
UKIP	105	0.2%
Green	102	0.2%
CON Majority	2,632	4.6%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Westmorland and Lonsdale: Map

List of old seats forming part of Westmorland and Lonsdale

Old seat: Barrow and Furness

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Barrow and Furness, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Barrow and Furness				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Barrow-in-Furness	Barrow Island	1,665	Barrow and Furness	483	827	19	46	10	0	0	0	1,385
Barrow-in-Furness	Central	2,792	Barrow and Furness	816	1,414	29	71	13	0	0	0	2,343
Barrow-in-Furness	Dalton North	4,948	Barrow and Furness	1,777	1,332	124	100	12	0	0	0	3,345
Barrow-in-Furness	Dalton South	4,728	Barrow and Furness	1,684	1,496	57	45	14	0	0	0	3,296
Barrow-in-Furness	Hawcoat	4,156	Barrow and Furness	1,724	814	52	32	11	0	0	0	2,633
Barrow-in-Furness	Hindpool	4,243	Barrow and Furness	1,115	2,019	54	43	21	0	0	0	3,252
Barrow-in-Furness	Newbarns	4,455	Barrow and Furness	1,413	1,405	60	37	14	0	0	0	2,929
Barrow-in-Furness	Ormsgill	4,275	Barrow and Furness	1,086	1,944	73	43	20	0	0	0	3,166
Barrow-in-Furness	Parkside	4,331	Barrow and Furness	1,283	1,588	78	41	19	0	0	0	3,009
Barrow-in-Furness	Risedale	4,554	Barrow and Furness	1,178	2,042	67	103	23	0	0	0	3,413
Barrow-in-Furness	Roosecote	3,934	Barrow and Furness	1,504	936	52	32	12	0	0	0	2,536
Barrow-in-Furness	Walney North	4,295	Barrow and Furness	1,102	1,598	66	86	14	0	0	0	2,866
Barrow-in-Furness	Walney South	4,123	Barrow and Furness	1,145	1,524	68	93	15	0	0	0	2,845
South Lakeland	Broughton	1,782	Barrow and Furness	762	361	18	11	24	0	0	0	1,176
South Lakeland	Coniston and Crake Valley	172	Westmorland and Lonsdale	79	31	6	1	0	0	0	0	117
South Lakeland	Low Furness	1,411	Barrow and Furness	616	217	42	24	13	0	0	0	912
South Lakeland	Mid Furness	3,083	Barrow and Furness	1,293	599	121	68	35	0	0	0	2,116
South Lakeland	Ulverston Central	1,387	Barrow and Furness	542	409	55	10	16	0	0	0	1,032
South Lakeland	Ulverston East	1,552	Barrow and Furness	514	602	54	36	21	0	0	0	1,227
South Lakeland	Ulverston North	1,521	Barrow and Furness	573	395	73	10	22	0	0	0	1,073
South Lakeland	Ulverston South	1,453	Barrow and Furness	596	351	34	12	15	0	0	0	1,008
South Lakeland	Ulverston Town	1,421	Barrow and Furness	431	455	48	10	18	0	0	0	962
South Lakeland	Ulverston West	1,465	Barrow and Furness	669	234	29	8	14	0	0	0	954
	Total	67,746		22,385	22,593	1,279	962	376	0	0	0	47,595

The full details of these calculations are given on the Barrow and Furness seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Penrith and The Border

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Penrith and The Border, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Penrith and The Border				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Allerdale	Warnell	1,568	Penrith and Solway	780	200	57	45	47	0	0	4	1,133
Allerdale	Wigton	4,356	Penrith and Solway	1,372	1,463	190	160	111	0	0	15	3,311
Carlisle	Brampton	3,422	Carlisle	1,458	761	171	119	118	0	0	11	2,638
Carlisle	Great Corby and Geltsdale	1,659	Carlisle	732	363	58	16	17	0	0	4	1,190
Carlisle	Hayton	1,574	Carlisle	728	315	64	55	19	0	0	26	1,207
Carlisle	Irthing	1,516	Carlisle	743	261	51	18	48	0	0	7	1,128
Carlisle	Longtown and Rockcliffe	2,978	Carlisle	1,310	694	127	107	53	0	0	10	2,301
Carlisle	Lyne	1,541	Carlisle	783	206	41	18	42	0	0	4	1,094
Carlisle	Stanwix Rural	3,628	Carlisle	1,638	668	128	114	91	0	0	11	2,650
Eden	Alston Moor	1,638	Penrith and Solway	694	341	77	22	25	0	0	21	1,180
Eden	Appleby (Appleby)	1,018	Westmorland and Lonsdale	423	217	46	15	14	0	0	17	732
Eden	Appleby (Bongate)	1,324	Westmorland and Lonsdale	516	256	181	20	17	0	0	5	995
Eden	Askham	1,049	Penrith and Solway	521	166	100	10	12	0	0	4	813
Eden	Brough	1,035	Westmorland and Lonsdale	476	188	41	13	12	0	0	18	748
Eden	Crosby Ravensworth	1,131	Penrith and Solway	597	140	34	10	11	0	0	2	794
Eden	Dacre	1,118	Penrith and Solway	458	177	137	12	13	0	0	11	808
Eden	Eamont	1,180	Penrith and Solway	607	157	37	13	11	0	0	3	828
Eden	Greystoke	1,138	Penrith and Solway	577	150	38	11	14	0	0	7	797
Eden	Hartside	1,039	Penrith and Solway	503	151	37	10	12	0	0	9	722
Eden	Hesket	2,403	Penrith and Solway	1,282	332	76	25	22	0	0	25	1,762
Eden	Kirkby Stephen	2,011	Westmorland and Lonsdale	944	361	87	25	24	0	0	22	1,463
Eden	Kirkby Thore	1,173	Penrith and Solway	543	239	47	15	15	0	0	21	880
Eden	Kirkoswald	1,132	Penrith and Solway	550	194	48	12	16	0	0	15	835
Eden	Langwathby	1,245	Penrith and Solway	572	218	52	14	16	0	0	16	888
Eden	Lazonby	1,107	Penrith and Solway	594	153	38	11	12	0	0	3	811
Eden	Long Marton	952	Penrith and Solway	506	125	33	10	10	0	0	5	689
Eden	Morland	1,004	Penrith and Solway	490	173	39	12	12	0	0	16	742
Eden	Orton with Tebay	1,061	Westmorland and Lonsdale	533	165	42	11	12	0	0	3	766
Eden	Penrith Carleton	1,230	Penrith and Solway	522	202	116	16	13	0	0	3	872
Eden	Penrith East	2,052	Penrith and Solway	821	412	234	29	23	0	0	7	1,526
Eden	Penrith North	3,178	Penrith and Solway	1,283	626	376	43	43	0	0	11	2,382
Eden	Penrith Pategill	1,025	Penrith and Solway	360	237	142	15	11	0	0	4	769
Eden	Penrith South	1,905	Penrith and Solway	709	403	234	30	23	0	0	28	1,427
Eden	Penrith West	2,163	Penrith and Solway	762	719	282	33	33	0	0	11	1,840
Eden	Ravenstonedale	753	Westmorland and Lonsdale	413	102	25	7	9	0	0	3	559
Eden	Shap	1,077	Penrith and Solway	548	173	37	12	12	0	0	7	789
Eden	Skelton	1,203	Penrith and Solway	633	138	35	10	11	0	0	2	829
Eden	Ullswater	1,009	Penrith and Solway	599	133	37	11	13	0	0	6	799
Eden	Warcop	1,081	Westmorland and Lonsdale	498	186	46	13	14	0	0	14	771
	Total	62,676		28,078	12,165	3,641	1,142	1,031	0	0	411	46,468

The full details of these calculations are given on the Penrith and The Border seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Westmorland and Lonsdale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Westmorland and Lonsdale				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
South Lakeland	Ambleside and Grasmere	2,783	Westmorland and Lonsdale	1,081	253	1,149	0	0	0	0	14	2,497
South Lakeland	Arnside and Beetham	3,394	Westmorland and Lonsdale	1,260	152	1,108	0	0	0	0	18	2,538
South Lakeland	Burneside	1,625	Westmorland and Lonsdale	554	122	537	0	0	0	0	5	1,218
South Lakeland	Burton and Holme	2,901	Westmorland and Lonsdale	1,341	179	811	0	0	0	0	11	2,342
South Lakeland	Cartmel and Grange West	1,531	Westmorland and Lonsdale	583	61	507	0	0	0	0	9	1,160
South Lakeland	Coniston and Crake Valley	1,092	Westmorland and Lonsdale	474	49	300	0	0	0	0	9	832
South Lakeland	Crooklands	1,761	Westmorland and Lonsdale	603	72	670	0	0	0	0	8	1,353
South Lakeland	Grange North	1,754	Westmorland and Lonsdale	634	96	595	0	0	0	0	7	1,332
South Lakeland	Grange South	1,488	Westmorland and Lonsdale	678	55	327	0	0	0	0	13	1,073
South Lakeland	Hawkshead	1,406	Westmorland and Lonsdale	549	45	454	0	0	0	0	4	1,052
South Lakeland	Holker	1,522	Westmorland and Lonsdale	533	88	619	0	0	0	0	7	1,247
South Lakeland	Kendal Castle	1,443	Westmorland and Lonsdale	398	90	581	0	0	0	0	4	1,073
South Lakeland	Kendal Far Cross	1,651	Westmorland and Lonsdale	426	215	791	0	0	0	0	7	1,439
South Lakeland	Kendal Fell	1,572	Westmorland and Lonsdale	456	205	713	0	0	0	0	11	1,385
South Lakeland	Kendal Heron Hill	1,504	Westmorland and Lonsdale	413	95	585	0	0	0	0	5	1,098
South Lakeland	Kendal Highgate	1,577	Westmorland and Lonsdale	445	279	675	0	0	0	0	12	1,411
South Lakeland	Kendal Kirkland	1,591	Westmorland and Lonsdale	379	234	700	0	0	0	0	7	1,320
South Lakeland	Kendal Mintsfeet	1,525	Westmorland and Lonsdale	406	185	673	0	0	0	0	6	1,270
South Lakeland	Kendal Nether	1,602	Westmorland and Lonsdale	471	138	753	0	0	0	0	6	1,368
South Lakeland	Kendal Oxenholme and Natland	1,689	Westmorland and Lonsdale	569	102	598	0	0	0	0	8	1,277
South Lakeland	Kendal Parks	1,586	Westmorland and Lonsdale	517	140	648	0	0	0	0	5	1,310
South Lakeland	Kendal Romney	1,718	Westmorland and Lonsdale	440	197	703	0	0	0	0	11	1,351
South Lakeland	Kendal Stonecross	1,586	Westmorland and Lonsdale	418	112	636	0	0	0	0	5	1,171
South Lakeland	Kendal Strickland	1,498	Westmorland and Lonsdale	411	174	620	0	0	0	0	5	1,210
South Lakeland	Kendal Underley	1,597	Westmorland and Lonsdale	449	285	664	0	0	0	0	20	1,418
South Lakeland	Levens	1,688	Westmorland and Lonsdale	646	53	563	0	0	0	0	12	1,274
South Lakeland	Lyth Valley	1,812	Westmorland and Lonsdale	865	67	441	0	0	0	0	9	1,382
South Lakeland	Milnthorpe	1,626	Westmorland and Lonsdale	510	121	714	0	0	0	0	6	1,351
South Lakeland	Sedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale	4,705	Westmorland and Lonsdale	2,019	243	1,606	0	0	0	0	15	3,883
South Lakeland	Staveley-in-Cartmel	1,550	Westmorland and Lonsdale	622	47	501	0	0	0	0	12	1,182
South Lakeland	Staveley-in-Westmorland	1,636	Westmorland and Lonsdale	508	69	718	0	0	0	0	9	1,304
South Lakeland	Whinfell	1,529	Westmorland and Lonsdale	641	58	485	0	0	0	0	4	1,188
South Lakeland	Windermere Applethwaite and Troutbeck	1,520	Westmorland and Lonsdale	787	85	459	0	0	0	0	6	1,337
South Lakeland	Windermere Bowness North	1,538	Westmorland and Lonsdale	617	97	566	0	0	0	0	6	1,286
South Lakeland	Windermere Bowness South	1,365	Westmorland and Lonsdale	743	108	544	0	0	0	0	8	1,403
South Lakeland	Windermere Town	1,551	Westmorland and Lonsdale	464	214	672	0	0	0	0	6	1,356
	Total	63,916		22,910	4,785	23,686	0	0	0	0	310	51,691

The full details of these calculations are given on the Westmorland and Lonsdale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Westmorland and Lonsdale

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Westmorland and Lonsdale
Eden	Appleby (Appleby)	1,025	Penrith and The Border	423	217	46	15	14	0	0	17	732
Eden	Appleby (Bongate)	1,395	Penrith and The Border	516	256	181	20	17	0	0	5	995
Eden	Brough	1,051	Penrith and The Border	476	188	41	13	12	0	0	18	748
Eden	Kirkby Stephen	2,052	Penrith and The Border	944	361	87	25	24	0	0	22	1,463
Eden	Orton with Tebay	1,075	Penrith and The Border	533	165	42	11	12	0	0	3	766
Eden	Ravenstonedale	783	Penrith and The Border	413	102	25	7	9	0	0	3	559
Eden	Warcop	1,081	Penrith and The Border	498	186	46	13	14	0	0	14	771
South Lakeland	Ambleside and Grasmere	3,207	Westmorland and Lonsdale	1,081	253	1,149	0	0	0	0	14	2,497
South Lakeland	Arnside and Beetham	3,261	Westmorland and Lonsdale	1,260	152	1,108	0	0	0	0	18	2,538
South Lakeland	Burneside	1,564	Westmorland and Lonsdale	554	122	537	0	0	0	0	5	1,218
South Lakeland	Burton and Holme	3,007	Westmorland and Lonsdale	1,341	179	811	0	0	0	0	11	2,342
South Lakeland	Cartmel and Grange West	1,489	Westmorland and Lonsdale	583	61	507	0	0	0	0	9	1,160
South Lakeland	Coniston and Crake Valley	170	Barrow and Furness	79	31	6	1	0	0	0	0	117
South Lakeland	Coniston and Crake Valley	1,068	Westmorland and Lonsdale	474	49	300	0	0	0	0	9	832
South Lakeland	Crooklands	1,736	Westmorland and Lonsdale	603	72	670	0	0	0	0	8	1,353
South Lakeland	Grange North	1,710	Westmorland and Lonsdale	634	96	595	0	0	0	0	7	1,332
South Lakeland	Grange South	1,378	Westmorland and Lonsdale	678	55	327	0	0	0	0	13	1,073
South Lakeland	Hawkshead	1,352	Westmorland and Lonsdale	549	45	454	0	0	0	0	4	1,052
South Lakeland	Holker	1,601	Westmorland and Lonsdale	533	88	619	0	0	0	0	7	1,247
South Lakeland	Kendal Castle	1,378	Westmorland and Lonsdale	398	90	581	0	0	0	0	4	1,073
South Lakeland	Kendal Far Cross	1,847	Westmorland and Lonsdale	426	215	791	0	0	0	0	7	1,439
South Lakeland	Kendal Fell	1,779	Westmorland and Lonsdale	456	205	713	0	0	0	0	11	1,385
South Lakeland	Kendal Heron Hill	1,410	Westmorland and Lonsdale	413	95	585	0	0	0	0	5	1,098
South Lakeland	Kendal Highgate	1,814	Westmorland and Lonsdale	445	279	675	0	0	0	0	12	1,411
South Lakeland	Kendal Kirkland	1,695	Westmorland and Lonsdale	379	234	700	0	0	0	0	7	1,320
South Lakeland	Kendal Mintsfeet	1,631	Westmorland and Lonsdale	406	185	673	0	0	0	0	6	1,270
South Lakeland	Kendal Nether	1,757	Westmorland and Lonsdale	471	138	753	0	0	0	0	6	1,368
South Lakeland	Kendal Oxenholme and Natland	1,640	Westmorland and Lonsdale	569	102	598	0	0	0	0	8	1,277
South Lakeland	Kendal Parks	1,684	Westmorland and Lonsdale	517	140	648	0	0	0	0	5	1,310
South Lakeland	Kendal Romney	1,735	Westmorland and Lonsdale	440	197	703	0	0	0	0	11	1,351
South Lakeland	Kendal Stonecross	1,504	Westmorland and Lonsdale	418	112	636	0	0	0	0	5	1,171
South Lakeland	Kendal Strickland	1,555	Westmorland and Lonsdale	411	174	620	0	0	0	0	5	1,210
South Lakeland	Kendal Underley	1,821	Westmorland and Lonsdale	449	285	664	0	0	0	0	20	1,418
South Lakeland	Levens	1,636	Westmorland and Lonsdale	646	53	563	0	0	0	0	12	1,274
South Lakeland	Lyth Valley	1,776	Westmorland and Lonsdale	865	67	441	0	0	0	0	9	1,382
South Lakeland	Milnthorpe	1,736	Westmorland and Lonsdale	510	121	714	0	0	0	0	6	1,351
South Lakeland	Sedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale	4,988	Westmorland and Lonsdale	2,019	243	1,606	0	0	0	0	15	3,883
South Lakeland	Staveley-in-Cartmel	1,518	Westmorland and Lonsdale	622	47	501	0	0	0	0	12	1,182
South Lakeland	Staveley-in-Westmorland	1,675	Westmorland and Lonsdale	508	69	718	0	0	0	0	9	1,304
South Lakeland	Whinfell	1,526	Westmorland and Lonsdale	641	58	485	0	0	0	0	4	1,188
South Lakeland	Windermere Applethwaite and Troutbeck	1,717	Westmorland and Lonsdale	787	85	459	0	0	0	0	6	1,337
South Lakeland	Windermere Bowness North	1,651	Westmorland and Lonsdale	617	97	566	0	0	0	0	6	1,286
South Lakeland	Windermere Bowness South	1,802	Westmorland and Lonsdale	743	108	544	0	0	0	0	8	1,403
South Lakeland	Windermere Town	1,743	Westmorland and Lonsdale	464	214	672	0	0	0	0	6	1,356
	Total	75,023		26,792	6,291	24,160	105	102	0	0	392	57,842

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Unknown (changed seat) (CON)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	75,023
Turnout:	77.1%

Westmorland and Lonsdale: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Westmorland and Lonsdale: Overview

Introduction