Broxtowe: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Broxtowe: Overview

Prediction: LAB

Implied MP at 2019:Darren Henry  (CON)
County/Area:Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:71,567
Implied Turnout 2019:73.6%
Predicted Turnout:69.4%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON24,28346.1%22.6%
LAB20,35738.7%49.1%
MIN5,0469.6%0.0%
Green1,6043.0%5.0%
OTH7481.4%1.1%
LIB3330.6%3.1%
Reform2990.6%19.1%
CON Majority3,9267.5%26.5%
LAB Maj

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Chance of winning
CON
3%
LAB
96%
MIN
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
LIB
0%
Reform
2%

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Broxtowe : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Broxtowe constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00143084) around the postcode NG9 1NE, and the Beeston Rylands ward of Broxtowe district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat East MidlandsAll GB
Party Winner 2024LABLABLABLABLAB
Party Winner 2019LABLABCONCONCON
Party Winner 2017LABLABCONCONCON
Economic Position7° RightCentrist3° Right4° Right
National Position14° NatGlobal3° Nat7° Nat
Social Position7° ConLiberal4° Con
TribeStrong RightCentristsCentrists
EU Leave %63%Remain55%59%52%
Average Age54.848.751.050.149.5
Good Education43%55%53%47%49%
Employed50%63%56%57%58%
Homeowner79%66%71%67%63%
Car owner71%75%80%81%77%
Married48%39%46%46%45%
Ethnic White95%89%89%86%83%
Christian46%40%44%48%50%
ABC1 Class58%63%62%53%56%
Gross Household Income£35,610£41,477£42,114£40,483£42,397
Deprivation58%47%50%52%52%
Average House Pricen/a£247,692£222,013£228,007£313,528

Broxtowe ranks #295 for "Leave", #317 for "Economic Right Position", #314 for "National Position" and #395 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Broxtowe: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Broxtowe

The new seat of Broxtowe is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: BroxtoweActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
BroxtoweAttenborough and Chilwell East5,659BroxtoweCONLAB
BroxtoweBeeston Central4,231BroxtoweLABLAB
BroxtoweBeeston North4,275BroxtoweLABLAB
BroxtoweBeeston Rylands3,506BroxtoweLABLAB
BroxtoweBeeston West4,116BroxtoweLABLAB
BroxtoweBrinsley1,883AshfieldCONLAB
BroxtoweChilwell West5,729BroxtoweCONLAB
BroxtoweEastwood Hall1,945AshfieldCONLAB
BroxtoweEastwood Hilltop3,913AshfieldLABLAB
BroxtoweEastwood St Mary's3,446AshfieldLABLAB
BroxtoweStapleford South West3,997BroxtoweLABLAB
BroxtoweToton and Chilwell Meadows6,291BroxtoweCONLAB
BroxtoweAwsworth, Cossall and Trowell3,854BroxtoweCONLAB
BroxtoweBramcote5,736BroxtoweCONLAB
BroxtoweGreasley482AshfieldCONLAB
BroxtoweGreasley4,984BroxtoweCONLAB
BroxtoweStapleford North3,603BroxtoweCONLAB
BroxtoweStapleford South East3,917BroxtoweCONLAB
 Total71,567 CONLAB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Broxtowe if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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