Cotswolds South: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Cotswolds South: Overview

Prediction: LIB

Implied MP at 2019:Geoffrey Clifton-Brown  (CON)
County/Area:Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:72,683
Implied Turnout 2019:74.7%
Predicted Turnout:69.1%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON31,52258.1%30.0%
LIB14,40826.5%32.2%
LAB6,05111.1%22.4%
Green2,3064.2%3.1%
Reform00.0%12.0%
OTH00.0%0.3%
CON Majority17,11431.5%2.2%
Pred Maj

See overview of other seats in South West.

Chance of winning
CON
38%
LIB
48%
LAB
13%
Green
0%
Reform
1%
OTH
0%

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Cotswolds South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Cotswolds South constituency, the 'South West' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00162970) around the postcode SN5 4EN, and the Purton ward of Wiltshire district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2015CONCONCONCONCON
Economic Position23° RightVery Right16° Right8° Right
National Position11° NatNational3° Nat4° Nat
Social Position6° ConConservative1° Con
TribeStrong RightStrong RightKind Yuppies
EU Leave %54%Balanced48%53%52%
Average Age51.849.853.551.649.5
Good Education56%52%57%52%49%
Employed65%66%59%57%58%
Homeowner85%78%72%68%63%
Car owner92%92%90%84%77%
Married56%53%54%47%45%
Ethnic White98%89%95%93%83%
Christian50%49%57%49%50%
ABC1 Class67%63%67%58%56%
Gross Household Income£44,193£44,658£48,826£41,731£42,397
Deprivation49%42%42%50%52%
Average House Pricen/a£325,049£432,087£311,706£313,528
Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Cotswolds South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Cotswolds South

The new seat of Cotswolds South is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: Cotswolds SouthActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
CotswoldAbbey1,982Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
CotswoldChesterton1,871Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
CotswoldFairford North1,999Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
CotswoldFour Acres1,547Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
CotswoldGrumbolds Ash with Avening2,047Cotswolds, TheCONCON
CotswoldKemble2,166Cotswolds, TheCONCON
CotswoldLechlade, Kempsford and Fairford South4,881Cotswolds, TheCONCON
CotswoldNew Mills1,866Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
CotswoldSt Michael's2,146Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
CotswoldSiddington and Cerney Rural2,126Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
CotswoldSouth Cerney Village1,831Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
CotswoldTetbury East and Rural1,994Cotswolds, TheCONCON
CotswoldTetbury Town1,858Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
CotswoldTetbury with Upton1,669Cotswolds, TheCONCON
CotswoldThe Ampneys and Hampton2,210Cotswolds, TheCONCON
CotswoldThe Beeches2,241Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
CotswoldWatermoor2,080Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
StroudKingswood1,812Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
WiltshireBrinkworth3,720Wiltshire NorthCONCON
WiltshireBy Brook3,602Wiltshire NorthCONCON
WiltshireCricklade and Latton3,893Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireKington21ChippenhamCONCON
WiltshireKington4,058Wiltshire NorthCONCON
WiltshireMalmesbury4,349Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireMinety3,884Wiltshire NorthCONCON
WiltshirePurton4,773Wiltshire NorthCONCON
WiltshireSherston4,034Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
CotswoldStratton2,024Cotswolds, TheCONLIB
 Total72,684 CONLIB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Cotswolds South if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2023.

For predicted votes cast for each party in each ward, plus likelihood of voters to switch and top political issues and policies locally, visit our online store to download full data for this seat now.


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