St Albans: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

St Albans: Overview

Prediction: LIB

Implied MP at 2019:Daisy Cooper  (LIB)
County/Area:Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:70,565
Implied Turnout 2019:78.1%
Predicted Turnout:80.3%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
LIB27,49549.9%55.5%
CON21,65639.3%13.0%
LAB4,8538.8%5.5%
Green9751.8%4.3%
OTH1530.3%0.8%
Reform00.0%20.8%
LIB Majority5,83910.6%34.7%
LIB Maj

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Chance of winning
LIB
99%
CON
0%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
1%

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St Albans : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new St Albans constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00189348) around the postcode AL1 3RY, and the Bernards Heath ward of St Albans district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2024LIBLIBLIBCONLAB
Party Winner 2019LIBLIBLIBCONCON
Party Winner 2017LIBCONCONCONCON
Economic Position6° LeftRight10° Right9° Right
National Position33° GloVery Global13° Glo7° Nat
Social Position21° LibVery Lib7° Lib3° Con
TribeProgressivesProgressivesKind Yuppies
EU Leave %22%Very Remain37%56%52%
Average Age47.747.149.550.549.5
Good Education80%74%65%48%49%
Employed70%68%64%59%58%
Homeowner49%65%70%67%63%
Car owner68%86%86%84%77%
Married39%52%51%47%45%
Ethnic White86%81%81%86%83%
Christian42%44%48%50%50%
ABC1 Class75%82%75%58%56%
Gross Household Income£54,109£66,334£58,516£45,686£42,397
Deprivation41%34%41%50%52%
Average House Pricen/a£609,012£575,723£352,365£313,528

St Albans ranks #571 for "Leave", #177 for "Economic Right Position", #552 for "National Position" and #539 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

St Albans: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: St Albans

The new seat of St Albans is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: St AlbansActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
St AlbansBatchwood5,386St AlbansLIBLIB
St AlbansBernards Heath5,581St AlbansLIBLIB
St AlbansClarence5,827St AlbansLIBLIB
St AlbansColney Heath2,006St AlbansLIBLIB
St AlbansColney Heath23Welwyn HatfieldLIBLIB
St AlbansCunningham5,444St AlbansLIBLIB
St AlbansHill End5,370St AlbansLIBLIB
St AlbansLondon Colney5,635St AlbansCONLIB
St AlbansMarshalswick East and Jersey Farm3,127St AlbansLIBLIB
St AlbansMarshalswick West3,525St AlbansLIBLIB
St AlbansPark Street6,096St AlbansCONLIB
St AlbansSopwell5,185St AlbansLIBLIB
St AlbansSt Peters5,805St AlbansLIBLIB
St AlbansSt Stephen6,253St AlbansCONLIB
St AlbansVerulam5,301St AlbansLIBLIB
 Total70,564 LIBLIB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of St Albans if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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