Chippenham: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Chippenham: Overview

Prediction: LIB

Implied MP at 2019:Michelle Donelan  (CON)
County/Area:Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:71,341
Implied Turnout 2019:74.3%
Predicted Turnout:73.7%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON28,90254.6%26.5%
LIB16,58931.3%47.6%
LAB6,49812.3%8.3%
Green9931.9%3.0%
Reform00.0%13.5%
OTH00.0%1.1%
CON Majority12,31323.2%21.2%
LIB Maj

See overview of other seats in South West.

Chance of winning
CON
9%
LIB
90%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
Reform
0%
OTH
0%

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Chippenham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Chippenham constituency, the 'South West' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00162911) around the postcode SN15 2LQ, and the Corsham Without ward of Wiltshire district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat South WestAll GB
Party Winner 2024LIBLIBLIBCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCONCONCON
Economic Position10° RightVery Right14° Right8° Right
National Position4° NatCentrist4° Nat4° Nat
Social Position2° ConModerate
TribeKind YuppiesKind YuppiesKind Yuppies
EU Leave %50%Remain51%53%52%
Average Age53.552.850.751.649.5
Good Education54%56%52%52%49%
Employed63%59%62%57%58%
Homeowner27%69%69%68%63%
Car owner87%90%87%84%77%
Married52%55%50%47%45%
Ethnic White93%95%94%93%83%
Christian51%52%50%49%50%
ABC1 Class61%65%62%58%56%
Gross Household Income£37,660£47,795£46,477£41,731£42,397
Deprivation46%44%46%50%52%
Average House Pricen/a£350,238£292,782£311,706£313,528

Chippenham ranks #372 for "Leave", #96 for "Economic Right Position", #302 for "National Position" and #433 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Chippenham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Chippenham

The new seat of Chippenham is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: ChippenhamActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
WiltshireCalne Central3,706Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireCalne Chilvester and Abberd3,921Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireCalne North3,536Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireCalne Rural4,124Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Derriads3,841ChippenhamCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Derriads69Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Cepen Park and Hunters Moon3,603ChippenhamCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Hardenhuish2,585ChippenhamCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Hardenhuish320Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and Central4,185ChippenhamLIBLIB
WiltshireChippenham Hardens and Central43Wiltshire NorthLIBLIB
WiltshireChippenham Lowden and Rowden2,552ChippenhamCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Monkton2,251ChippenhamCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Monkton11Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Pewsham3,842ChippenhamCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Pewsham35Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireChippenham Sheldon4,212ChippenhamCONLIB
WiltshireCorsham Ladbrook4,309ChippenhamCONLIB
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick2,982ChippenhamCONLIB
WiltshireCorsham Pickwick1,020Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireCorsham Without2,741ChippenhamCONLIB
WiltshireCorsham Without957Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireLyneham865DevizesCONLIB
WiltshireLyneham3,237Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett East3,684Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett North4,125Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
WiltshireRoyal Wootton Bassett South and West4,585Wiltshire NorthCONLIB
 Total71,341 CONLIB

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Chippenham if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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