Hertsmere: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation

Hertsmere: Overview

Prediction: CON

Implied MP at 2019:Oliver Dowden  (CON)
County/Area:Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:73,133
Implied Turnout 2019:70.2%
Predicted Turnout:66.2%

Party2019
Votes
2019
Share
Pred
Votes
CON32,93664.2%36.1%
LAB10,88421.2%33.2%
LIB5,90611.5%8.0%
Green1,5893.1%5.2%
Reform00.0%16.4%
OTH00.0%1.2%
CON Majority22,05243.0%2.9%
CON Maj

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Chance of winning
CON
55%
LAB
42%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
Reform
2%
OTH
0%

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Hertsmere : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Hertsmere constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation, as well as the locality (census output area E00119498) around the postcode WD7 8EG, and the Aldenham West ward of Hertsmere district council.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2021 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorLocalityWard Seat AngliaAll GB
Party Winner 2024CONCONCONCONLAB
Party Winner 2019CONCONCONCONCON
Party Winner 2017CONCONCONCONCON
Economic Position23° RightVery Right16° Right9° Right
National Position16° GloGlobal2° Nat7° Nat
Social Position6° LibModerate5° Con3° Con
TribeKind YuppiesKind YuppiesKind Yuppies
EU Leave %37%Remain51%56%52%
Average Age49.152.950.450.549.5
Good Education71%61%54%48%49%
Employed64%60%61%59%58%
Homeowner70%74%68%67%63%
Car owner87%92%85%84%77%
Married51%56%50%47%45%
Ethnic White77%83%78%86%83%
Christian37%40%46%50%50%
ABC1 Class86%77%67%58%56%
Gross Household Income£62,043£54,778£49,445£45,686£42,397
Deprivation30%38%48%50%52%
Average House Pricen/a£1,081,430£595,497£352,365£313,528

Hertsmere ranks #378 for "Leave", #39 for "Economic Right Position", #336 for "National Position" and #205 for "Social Conservative Position" out of 650 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions
View descriptions and colour schemes of the table

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class), 'Gross Household Income', 'Individual Disposable Income' and 'Average House Price' all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic Position Very Left Left Centrist Right Very Right
National Position Very Global Global Centrist National Very Nat
Social Position Very Lib Liberal Moderate Conservative Very Cons
EU Leave % Very Remain Remain Balanced Leave Very Leave
Census Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
Average AgeAge (TS007A)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
Good EducationHighest level of qualification (TS067)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
EmployedEconomic activity status (TS066)Part-time, full-time employed or self-employed
HomeownerTenure (TS054)Own a property with or without a mortgage, or with shared ownership
Car ownerCar or van availability (TS045)In a household with at least one car or van
MarriedLegal partnership status (TS002)Married or civil partnership
Ethnic WhiteEthnic group (TS021)White British, Irish, Gypsy, Roma or other
ChristianReligion (TS030)Christian or Christian denomination (NI)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (SG002)Approximated social grades A, B and C1
Gross Household IncomeMedian gross household income, including cash benefits, but before tax. Values as at 2018. Source: ONS Small area estimates (E&W), Scottish Government (Scotland), plus additional Electoral Calculus modelling.
DeprivationHouseholds by deprivation dimensions (TS011)Fraction of households which are classed as deprived on one or more of the following four indicators: employment (unemployed or long-term sick); education (no good GCSE); health and disability (bad health or long-term problem); and housing (overcrowded, shared or no central heating).
Average House PriceAverage residential property price (including flats and houses) around 2019. Sources: Land Registry, Statistics Scotland, NI Department of Finance

Hertsmere: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2021, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

New seat: Hertsmere

The new seat of Hertsmere is made up of the following wards, with the predicted ward winners shown if there were a general election tomorrow.

New seat: HertsmereActualPredicted
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old SeatGE19
Winner
Pred
Winner
Welwyn HatfieldNorthaw and Cuffley4,419BroxbourneCONCON
Welwyn HatfieldNorthaw and Cuffley342Welwyn HatfieldCONCON
HertsmereAldenham East3,814HertsmereCONCON
HertsmereAldenham West3,878HertsmereCONCON
HertsmereBentley Heath and The Royds4,388HertsmereCONCON
HertsmereBorehamwood Brookmeadow5,474HertsmereCONLAB
HertsmereBorehamwood Cowley Hill5,637HertsmereCONLAB
HertsmereBorehamwood Hillside5,113HertsmereCONLAB
HertsmereBorehamwood Kenilworth5,959HertsmereCONLAB
HertsmereBushey Heath3,610HertsmereCONCON
HertsmereBushey Park5,599HertsmereCONCON
HertsmereBushey St James5,255HertsmereCONCON
HertsmereElstree3,697HertsmereCONCON
HertsmerePotters Bar Furzefield4,180HertsmereCONLAB
HertsmerePotters Bar Oakmere4,158HertsmereCONLAB
HertsmerePotters Bar Parkfield3,673HertsmereCONCON
HertsmereShenley3,935HertsmereCONCON
 Total73,131 CONCON

And these are the predicted results for the new seat of Hertsmere if there were an immediate general election. Please note that the wards used are those of 2024.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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